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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000283 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: ARIAS MAINTAINS SLIGHT LEAD THE DAY AFTER THE 
FEBRUARY 5 ELECTION 
 
REF: SAN JOSE 270 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1. (U) With 89 percent of the polls reporting by the 
afternoon of February 6, Oscar Arias of the National 
Liberation Party (PLN) has 40.5 percent of the vote for 
president and Otton Solis of the Citizens' Action Party (PAC) 
40.3 percent.  With only 3,250 votes separating the two 
candidates, the final tally can still go either way.  In the 
57-member Legislative Assembly, PLN will be the largest party 
with approximately 25 members and PAC the main opposition 
party with 18 members.  Other important parties are the 
Libertarian Movement (ML) (6 members) and Social Christian 
Unity Party (PUSC) (4 members).  (Note:  These numbers are 
all projections.)  PLN, ML, PUSC, and most of the 
single-member parties support CAFTA-DR; PAC opposes the 
treaty.  There will be a mandatory manual recount of 
presidential ballots lasting one to two weeks, but unless 
there are fewer than 1,000 votes separating Arias and Solis, 
we have been told we can expect to know who the winner is 
tomorrow.  End summary. 
 
Presidential Election 
--------------------- 
¶2. (U) Although it appears that Oscar Arias will in the end 
squeak into the presidency (he has been the frontrunner in 
all polls since he announced his candidacy for president in 
March 2004), the election was much, much closer than any 
polling organization had predicted.  Even exit polling showed 
Arias, of the National Liberation Party (PLN), with a healthy 
lead over his closest rival, Otton Solis, of the Citizens' 
Action Party (PAC).  The official results announced by the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) of the first 89 percent of 
polls reporting, however, showed only 3,250 votes separating 
Arias (with 40.5 percent) and Solis (with 40.2 percent). 
 
Legislative Election 
-------------------- 
¶3. (U) Oddly, while the polls greatly underestimated Solis's 
strength as a presidential candidate, they were mostly on 
target in the legislative race, at least according to current 
projections.  In the unicameral 57-member Legislative 
Assembly, the PLN is expected to win 25 seats and PAC 18 
seats.  The other important parties will be the Libertarian 
Movement (ML) with 6 seats and Social Christian Unity Party 
(PUSC) with 4 seats.  The remaining 4 seats may be divided 
between 4 small parties.  With regard to one of the first 
major issues on the legislative agenda, there appears to be a 
solid majority in favor of the U.S.-Central 
American-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). 
Only PAC is staunchly anti-CAFTA-DR; PLN, ML, PUSC, and most 
of the single-member parties will support the treaty. 
 
What Next? 
---------- 
¶4. (U) The remaining 11 percent of votes still to be counted 
will probably tell us who the president will be and the exact 
composition of the Legislative Assembly.  We expect all the 
votes to be tallied by the morning of February 7.  Regardless 
of who comes out ahead (or by how much), there will be a 
mandatory manual recount that is likely to take one to two 
weeks before an official winner is declared.  Neither 
candidate is likely to concede before the recount is complete. 
 
Atmosphere on Election Day 
-------------------------- 
¶5. (U) Embassy had 15 credentialed observers, including the 
Ambassador, visiting some 30 polling places in four different 
provinces on election day.  The mood around the polls was 
upbeat, even festive, though Costa Ricans told us the 
election was "quiet" by historical standards.  In fact, voter 
turnout on February 5 continued a downward trend starting 
from 1998.  This election's turnout was 65 percent, compared 
to 68 percent in 2002, 70 percent in 1998, and an average of 
80 percent in the previous four elections. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6. (SBU) There is no doubt that Solis, the candidate against 
the traditional parties, against economic reform, and against 
CAFTA-DR, has won a moral victory.  He did much better than 
anyone, except Solis himself, had predicted.  Arias, who on 
election day (and before) was predicting an easy victory, 
must be feeling a bit stunned by how close the election 
turned out to be. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Arias outspent Solis by many times and had a far 
bigger and better established organization to back him up. 
Arias also had stature, experience, vision, ideas, all 
lacking in Solis.  But Arias's famous arrogance hurt him.  It 
came out time and again in interviews when he effectively 
declared himself the winner or compared himself to John 
Kennedy.  Costa Ricans don't like their leaders too high on 
their horse.  It also caused him to refuse to respond to 
attacks and challenges from opponents like Solis.  An 
exaggerated confidence in victory caused the PLN to relax a 
bit on election day.  From our own observations, it looked 
like Solis's supporters did a better job than Arias's of 
providing transportation to voters who needed it to get to 
the polls. 
LANGDALE