This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 000270 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: ARIAS'S LEAD DECLINING IN FINAL DAYS BEFORE 
ELECTION 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 227 
 
     ¶B. SAN JOSE 193 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1.  Three different polls conducted in the last days of 
January show that the gap in support between presidential 
frontrunner Oscar Arias and his principal rival Otton Solis 
is narrowing.  The spread between the two is still 11 
percentage points or more, but the possibility of a runoff 
election (if Arias gets less than 40 percent of the vote) is 
no longer out of the question.  End summary. 
 
Unimer Poll 
----------- 
¶2.  Unimer Research International conducted a countrywide 
poll from January 27 to 31 that shows centrist presidential 
candidate Oscar Arias with the support of 42.6 percent of 
probable voters, leftist Otton Solis with 31.5 percent, and 
rightist Otto Guevara with 12.9 percent.  The result is a 
dramatic change from Unimer's January 15-23 poll (ref A) 
which gave Arias 49.6 percent, Solis 25.4 percent, and 
Guevara 11.8 percent.  Unimer conducted 1,200 in-person 
interviews, and the margin of error is 2.8 percent. 
 
Demoscopia Poll 
--------------- 
¶3.  Demoscopia also conducted a countrywide poll from January 
27 to 31 and found the same tendency, with a 2.2 percent 
margin of error.  In just over a week (see ref B for earlier 
poll), according to Demoscopia, Arias's support dropped from 
45.5 percent to 43 percent, while Solis rose from 24.1 to 26 
percent, and Guevara from 15 to 15.9 percent.  The same poll 
showed Guevara's Libertarian Movement (ML) doing better in 
the legislative race than previously forecast, i.e., scoring 
11 members of the 57-member Legislative Assembly instead of 
just 8. 
 
CID-Gallup Poll 
--------------- 
¶4.  CID-Gallup's January 28-29 poll results, with a margin of 
error of 2.8 percent, confirms the same broad tendency of 
strengthened support for Solis found in the Unimer and 
Demoscopia polls.  Compared to CID-Gallup's January 20-24 
poll (ref B), Arias also slightly increased his support from 
46 to 47 percent but Solis showed a significant jump from 21 
to 28 percent.  Guevara's support went down from 15 to 13 
percent. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶5.  It is difficult to explain Solis's surge and Arias's 
apparent decline.  Both sides continue to campaign hard and 
to advertise heavily.  But while Arias's ads have been 
constant over time, Solis's ads in all the media have picked 
up a lot in the last week.  Arias's campaign focuses on his 
experience and vision for Costa Rica, while Solis attacks 
Arias unmercifully for being a "voice of hatred and lies" 
about Solis.  It could be that Solis's far more aggressive 
tactics are working. 
LANGDALE