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P 221657Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2866
INFO RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA PRIORITY 1270
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 3997
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 5347
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RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS 3732
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0445
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UNCLAS RABAT 000308 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/MAG, NEA/PI 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KMPI KDEM MO
 
SUBJECT:  IRI POLL SHOWS VOTERS HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN 
POLITICAL PARTIES, PREDICTS STRONG SHOWING BY PJD IN 2007 
 
 
¶1.  (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please 
protect accordingly. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  A September 2005 poll of 1500 Moroccans 
administered by the International Republican Institute (IRI) 
under the auspices of its MEPI/USAID program found that 
Moroccans are disillusioned with their government and 
elected officials.  The poll shows that a lack of jobs and 
low public confidence in the political system, especially in 
parliament and political parties, are the largest obstacles 
to increased participation of the electorate in the 
political process, despite respondents' considerable 
optimism about Morocco's future.  The poll also found that 
of the 975 respondents judged to be likely voters in the 
2007 parliamentary elections, 15 percent said they would 
vote for the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP), 13 
percent Istiqlal, 10 percent the Islamist Party for Justice 
and Development (PJD), 7 percent the Popular Movement Union 
(UMP) parties, and 8 percent others.  Of the 43 percent of 
respondents who were undecided, 83 percent said they would 
"lean" toward the PJD, 8 percent the National Rally of 
Independents (RNI), 6 percent USFP, and 2 percent Istiqlal. 
Adjusting the results to include the choices of these 
undecided respondents, the poll found that a hypothetical 
vote of likely voters would result in a strong victory for 
the PJD in parliamentary elections with 46 percent of the 
vote (but not necessarily 46 percent of parliament's 325 
seats).  The poll sets the baseline for two follow-on 
surveys that IRI will coordinate, assuming the continuation 
of funding beyond the close of project date of February 28, 
¶2006.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On January 18, 2006, IRI presented to the 
Ambassador, USAID Director, and mission officers its 
analysis of the first of three planned public opinion polls 
under a project funded by MEPI and administered by USAID's 
Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening 
(CEPPS).  Working through a Moroccan polling firm, LMS-CSA 
Marketing & Sondages, IRI surveyed 1500 respondents in rural 
and urban areas in September 2005 to establish a baseline 
for assessing Moroccan attitudes on political reform and 
governing institutions and provide insight into the national 
voter bases of the country's leading political parties. 
(Note: Fifty-seven percent of participants came from urban 
areas. End Note.) 
 
¶4.  (SBU) LMS-CSA conducted face-to-face interviews with 
each participant in 13 of Morocco's 16 regions (not 
including the Western Sahara).  Interviews were conducted 
mostly in Arabic but occasionally in Amazigh (Berber), in 
participant homes.  Respondents had no prior knowledge of 
the poll and LMS-CSA offered no incentives to participate. 
IRI began its second poll on January 21, 2005. 
 
Optimistic about Future but Bearish on Government 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Despite showing considerable optimism about 
Morocco's future -- 75 percent of respondents said they were 
somewhat to very optimistic -- a majority of those surveyed 
(53 percent) believed the country needed to elect a new 
"government."  (NB: Pollsters did not define the word 
government for respondents.)  Of this majority, 63 percent 
were convinced that Morocco is headed in the "wrong 
direction" as compred to 48 percent for the entire sample. 
 
Respondnts' Chief Concern:  Jobs and Unemployment 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The survey indicates that respondents' frustration 
with government stems from perceptions that people in 
government are "against change," that today's government is 
just as "ineffective and undemocratic" as past governments, 
and that the government "lacks qualified and efficient 
leaders."  IRI observes that the public's dissatisfaction 
with elected representatives appears to be strongly 
correlated with the pre-eminence that jobs play in the daily 
lives of Moroccans.  Out of a list that included education, 
housing, illiteracy, health services, terrorism, social 
justice, economy, and protection of rights and liberties, 74 
percent of all respondents identified jobs and unemployment 
as their top worry. 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Poverty and standard of living (37 and 27 percent, 
respectively) were the only other choices that garnered more 
than 25 percent of the responses.  The results suggest that 
as long as the government fails to meet voters' expectations 
on jobs, perceptions of government are likely to remain 
unfavorable.  The findings also support the view, according 
to IRI, that in order to be more effective, parties must 
couch their messages to voters in more concrete terms like 
jobs rather than in abstract concepts like social justice or 
the economy. 
 
Negative Views of Political Parties and Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The survey shows that the public has strong, 
negative perceptions of political parties and parliament. 
Respondents were asked to rate various institutions, 
countries, and political organizations on a scale of 0 to 10 
with 10 indicating a very warm, favorable feeling.  They 
gave parliament an average score of 3.71.  The USFP and PJD 
were the only political parties that received an average 
score greater than 4.  The PJD, however, was the sole party 
for which a higher percentage of people gave it a favorable 
rating (from 6 to 10) than those that rated it unfavorably. 
By comparison, respondents gave France an average rating of 
7.86, the United States a 5.51, and Algeria a 2.47. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The public's negative image of parties and 
parliament stems from a lack of confidence in politicians 
and the party system, according to the poll.  Eighty-four 
percent of respondents said that parties are "only after 
their own interests," 79 percent believed that parties are 
"tarnished by bribes and corruption," and 73 percent agreed 
with the statement that parties are "out of touch with 
people like you."  Only 22 percent believed that parties are 
made up of "people you can trust" and just 14 percent agreed 
that parties "understand the concerns of citizens." 
 
¶10.  (SBU) When asked which party -- the USFP, PJD, 
Istiqlal, or a non-existent party named the New Reform Party 
inserted by pollsters as an alternative choice for 
respondents -- provides strong leadership, keeps its 
promises, and is "on your side," a range of 17-19 percent 
chose the phantom New Reform Party as compared to just 9-11 
percent for the PJD; 8-9 percent for USFP; and 6-8 percent 
for Istiqlal.  Twenty-six to twenty-nine percent of 
respondents chose neither party.  According to IRI, a 
voter's assessment of a party's performance on these three 
principles usually correlates strongly with predicting their 
vote. 
 
Voters Unable to Differentiate Among Parties 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The poll found that Morocco's parties are 
virtually indistinguishable to voters.  Pollsters asked 
respondents to state which of four parties -- USFP, PJD, 
Istiqlal, or the New Reform Party -- would do the "best job" 
on employment, education reform, fighting poverty and 
illiteracy, improving infrastructure and health services, 
and developing rural areas.  Respondents' gave responses 
ranging from 8-11 percent for the USFP and PJD, and 7-9 
percent for Istiqlal, while scores for the non-existent New 
Reform Party hovered around 20 percent.  These low scores 
not only reflect voters' lack of faith in Morocco's leading 
parties, but they also show that Moroccans make few 
distinctions across parties on issues. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Lending further support to this finding, 68 
percent of respondents said they disagreed with the 
statement that it is "easy to understand the differences 
between the programs of different political parties."  IRI 
points to these results as indicators that parties are not 
talking about issues in terms that are understood by and 
familiar to the voter.  Parties' ideas are too broad, IRI 
believes, and, consequently, voters are not able to make 
distinctions across parties. 
 
Still Hope for Parties 
---------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Notwithstanding respondents' critical views of 
party life in Morocco, the poll suggests there may be an 
opening for parties to improve their image.  In an open- 
ended question, pollsters asked respondents what the single 
most important thing a party could do to regain its 
credibility; 25 percent said parties could "follow through 
on promises made" while 24 percent believed parties could 
"fight unemployment."  In a related question, 64 percent of 
respondents said they agreed with the statement that they 
would have more faith in the system if political parties 
passed internal reforms.  Seventy-eight percent believed 
parties should hold "regular elections to choose their 
leadership" and 86 percent said parties "need to be more 
financially transparent."  (Note:  The government's new law 
on political parties, passed by parliament in December 2005, 
requires parties to improve internal democracy and increase 
financial transparency.  End Note.) 
 
Limited Political Engagement 
---------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) The poll found that few respondents defined 
themselves as active participants in the political system. 
Just 1 percent said they were party "activists" and only 14 
percent said they "sympathized" with a particular party. 
(Note: By contrast, 60-70 percent of American voters 
identify with either the Democratic or Republican party, 
according to IRI.  End Note.)  Of these two groups 
(activists and sympathizers), 30 percent identified most 
with the PJD, 25 percent with USFP, 23 percent with 
Istiqlal, and 8 percent with the rural, Berber-based UMP. 
The remaining respondents split their loyalty among centrist 
RNI (4 percent), oppositionist Constitutional Union (UC) (4 
percent), leftist Party for Progress and Socialism (PPS) (3 
percent), and others (3 percent). 
 
¶15.  (SBU) These self-described activists and sympathizers 
indicated that a party's ideas (37 percent), history (21 
percent), and leaders (20 percent) were the factors that 
most attracted them to the party.  Of the 83 percent of 
respondents that said they were neither an activist nor a 
sympathizer and the 2 percent who refused to answer, 69 
percent said they are not involved in party life because 
they are "not interested in politics;" an additional 20 
percent said they did "not trust any [political party]." 
 
Candidate's Personality, Campaign Promises Draw Voters 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) The poll corroborates the widely accepted notion 
that Moroccans are mostly drawn to a candidate's personality 
and campaign promises when casting their vote.  For the 60 
percent of respondents who claimed they voted in the 2002 
elections, 43 percent said that the "personal traits" of a 
candidate led to their choice of one party over another 
while 27 percent said a candidate's "campaign promises" drew 
them in.  Seventeen percent cited a party's platform or 
campaign issues as the main factor. 
 
Higher Voter Participation Likely for 2007 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶17.  (SBU) If parliamentary elections were held tomorrow, 65 
percent of respondents said that it was "very likely" (53 
percent) or "probable" (12 percent) that they would vote. 
(Note: This would mark a significant rise in the rate of 
voter participation over the 2002 legislative elections, 
which barely reached 50 percent.  End Note.)  When pollsters 
asked this subset of likely voters which party they would 
vote for, 43 percent said they were undecided; 15 percent 
chose USFP; 13 percent Istiqlal; 10 percent PJD; 7 percent 
UMP; 4 percent the New Reform Party; 2 percent RNI; 1 
percent PPS; and 1 percent UC.  By comparison, USFP (50 
seats) and Istiqlal (48 seats) won 15 percent of the lower 
house's 325 seats in 2002, while PJD (42 seats) and RNI (41 
seats) won 13 percent.  The three Berber-based parties, 
which ran individually in 2002, garnered 17 percent, or a 
total of 55 seats. 
 
PJD Takes the "Lean" Vote 
------------------------- 
 
¶18.  (SBU) When pressed by pollsters, 83 percent of the 43 
percent of respondents who were undecided said that if they 
had to decide on a party right now, they would "lean" toward 
the PJD.  The remaining respondents said they would lean 
toward voting RNI (8 percent), USFP (6 percent), or Istiqlal 
(2 percent).  Adjusting the results to include the choices 
of these undecided respondents, the poll found that a 
hypothetical vote of likely voters would result in a strong 
victory for the PJD in parliamentary elections with 46 
percent of the vote.  USFP would finish in a distant second 
with 17 percent, Istiqlal third at 14 percent, RNI fourth at 
6 percent, UMP fifth at 4 percent, the New Reform Party 
sixth at 3 percent, and PPS and UC tied for seventh at 1 
percent.  IRI pointed out that since 57 percent of 
respondents were from urban areas, where there are fewer 
parliamentary seats available per capita, the PJD's 
hypothetical victory of 46 percent of the vote would be 
unlikely to deliver 46 percent of seats. 
 
IRI Presents Data to Party Leaders 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶19.  (SBU) IRI briefed the results of the poll to the top 
leadership of the USFP, Istiqlal, PJD, UMP, RNI, and PPS to 
sensitize them to the critical need for internal reform and 
constituent outreach in their parties.  Based on the poll's 
findings, IRI will conduct training sessions for party 
activists working in communications and outreach in order to 
assist parties in developing contemporary communication and 
recruitment techniques.  During the briefing with the PJD, 
general secretariat member Lahcen Daoudi confided that the 
party was "concerned" about the 83 percent "lean" vote of 
currently undecided voters for the party.  IRI interpreted 
this to mean that the PJD fears that rapid growth of the 
party may risk unsettling the palace. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶20.  (SBU) The IRI poll gives us an excellent baseline for 
assessing and comparing Moroccan views and attitudes on 
politics in the lead up to parliamentary elections in 2007. 
It substantiates the widely held view that political parties 
and parliament suffer from a large credibility gap with the 
public and validates the idea that Morocco's party system 
continues to be more responsive to and driven by 
personalities rather than issues.  The respondents' placing 
of a candidate's personal traits and campaign promises above 
the platform/issues of the candidate's party on the rank- 
ordered list of key factors determining their vote adds 
further weight to these notions; it also suggests that 
parties are not reaching out actively to the population on 
issues outside the election cycle. 
 
¶21.  (SBU) COMMENT CONT: The PJD's strong victory in the 
hypothetical vote underscores the party's popularity and 
name recognition at the grassroots, and especially in urban 
areas; it may also reflect dividends earned as the most 
recognizable member of Morocco's opposition.  It does not 
necessarily hand the PJD the 2007 elections, however. 
Although the poll bears out the party's higher popularity 
over rivals, the fact that respondents gave it scores on key 
issues that were only moderately higher than the USFP and 
Istiqlal means that even the PJD has a lot of work to do to 
restore public confidence in the party system and elected 
representatives.  END COMMENT. 
 
RILEY