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DE RUEHQT #0407/01 0451357
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O 141357Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3628
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5352
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1567
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB 9656
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0328
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 9917
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 000407 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA PLEASE PASS TO USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTIONS, NINE MONTHS OUT 
 
REF: A. 05 QUITO 2235 
     ¶B. SECSTATE 18883 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  Nine months out from national congressional 
and presidential elections, campaign season is heating up 
with prospective candidates plumping for support, courting 
running-mates, and fueling speculation over electoral 
alliances.  As speculation turns to the elections, the 
Palacio government is losing what little control it had over 
the national agenda and its reform agenda seems even more 
illusory.  With major party candidates holding back until 
closer to the opening of the formal campaign in mid-July, the 
presidential field remains unclear.  U.S. interests including 
the Manta base, the Occidental Petroleum commercial dispute 
and the FTA under negotiation with the GOE are all likely to 
provide nationalist fodder for candidates, left and right. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Elections are traditionally peaceful here, but the 
politicized electoral tribunal does not inspire full 
confidence.  Under the Nethercutt amendment, direct USG 
assistance to the GOE is restricted.  The OAS signed an 
agreement to provide the TSE with technical assistance on 
February 10.  To protect the USG interest in free, fair, 
inclusive and transparent elections under our democracy 
promotion strategy (Ref A), we urge USG support for this OAS 
assistance.  End Summary. 
 
Pre-Candidates Multiplying 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Nine parties and ten national movements have been 
registered by the TSE for participation in the October 
elections.  A dozen more movements are being considered by 
the TSE.  The formal campaign period begins with inscription 
of candidates in mid-July (the candidate lists close August 
15), so at this point there are many presidential aspirants 
(declared and undeclared) but no formal candidates.  Here is 
a brief and still partial rundown of aspirants, in rough 
descending order of popularity: 
 
-- Alvaro Noboa, PRIAN (possible VP-his wife).  The 
billionaire banana magnate benefits from his personal 
publicity juggernaut, despite acute lack of charisma. 
Electoral proposals still unclear.  Leads in most polls with 
approximately 20%. 
 
-- Leon Roldos (possible VPs - indigenous leader Nina Pacari, 
Quito councilwoman Luz Elena Coloma).  Thus far has failed to 
galvanize a coalition of the left around his candidacy, but 
is still trying with the Democratic Left (ID).  Difficult to 
understand and uncharismatic, he has high name recognition as 
the brother of a reformist young president who died in 
office; also respected by the older generation.  Supporters 
include group led by Quito councilman Antonio Ricaurte. 
 
-- Rafael Correa, Alianza Pais (possible VPs - Lourdes Tiban, 
Manuela Gallegos).  Just back from talks with Pres. Chavez in 
Caracas and now preparing to visit Havana, former Finance 
Minister Correa has an anti-FTA and economic nationalist 
message.  Attracting support from nascent Bolivarian groups 
and leftist intellectuals, causing resentment from 
traditional parties.  Supporters include former Col. Jorge 
Brito and anti-U.S. congressman Carlos Vallejo. 
 
-- Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez, Patriotic Society Party 
(PSP).  Running from behind bars.  Recently charged with 
constitutional offenses in addition to national security 
offenses, possibly prolonging his incarceration pending trial 
and preventing an actual candidacy.  Support concentrated in 
the less populous Amazon region. 
 
-- Ex-president Abdala Bucaram, Ecuadorian Roldosista Party 
(PRE).  The former ousted president, living in self-imposed 
exile in Panama, recently praised Correa, then, spurned, 
declared he will run again.  The Supreme Court president 
recently overturned his precedessor's ruling which had 
cleared Bucaram of criminal charges for corruption, making 
any Bucaram candidacy symbolic and likely to be challenged on 
legal grounds. 
 
-- Luis Villacis, Movement for Popular Democracy (MPD). 
Congressman from the former communist party which controls 
the national teachers union. 
-- Eduardo Ayala Mora, Socialist Party (PS).  The party is 
also considering an alliance with Leon Roldos. 
 
-- Eduardo Delgado, "Common People's Movement."  Though not 
yet announced, we are told that Delgado, the defrocked Jesuit 
priest and former professor, champion of the movement to put 
the FTA to a referendum vote, and spokesman for the 
"forajido" movement which ousted Gutierrez, will run.  His 
candidacy will further split the leftist vote courted by 
Correa and Roldos. 
 
-- Jaime Damerval, Coalition of Popular Forces (CFP).  From 
Guayaquil, where he is unpopular for his actions against 
mayor Nebot's security augmentation efforts while serving as 
Gutierrez' minister of government. 
 
-- Marco Proano Maya. Independent congressional deputy, 
formerly of Bucaram's PRE, claims he has been asked by a 
citizens movement to run for president.  Supporters 
reportedly include liberation theologist and former bishop of 
Cuenca Luna Tobar. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Three major parties, the Social Christians (PSC), 
ID and indigenous Pachakutik movement, are holding back on 
settling on candidates.  In the PSC, congressional VP Cynthia 
Viteri has been touted, but suffers from her close 
association with party boss Febres Cordero.  The ID, 
meanwhile, is being courted by Leon Roldos and is conducting 
internal polls to test the appeal of its own aspirants, 
including Quito mayor Paco Moncayo, ID president Guillermo 
Landazuri, congressional maverick Carlos Gonzalez, Pichincha 
prefect Ramiro Gonzalez, and congressional deputy Andres 
Paez.  Pachakutik, the indigenous party, has declared its 
intention to run its own candidate, possibly Cotacachi mayor 
Auki Tituana, but has been hurt by the recent exit of several 
mestizo leaders and the Otavalo mayor, Mario Conejo, over 
internal disputes. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Most candidates are calling for unity involving 
alliances of some sort, either on the left or across the 
political spectrum.  Perverse incentives mitigate the 
likelihood of such alliances until after the first round of 
voting, since most believe it necessary to have a 
presidential contender in the first round to help boost the 
appeal of its congressional candidates.  Most observers 
consider a PSC-ID electoral alliance to be unlikely, but 
others, including Andean parliamentarian and media 
personality Freddy Ehlers, are promoting it behind the 
scenes.  The political dream team of mayors Moncayo and Nebot 
could win the election, but is fraught with contradictions 
which probably rule it out. 
 
Election Authorities Need Outside Help 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Electoral tribunal (TSE) president Xavier Cazar 
told the Ambassador on February 6 that he had recently 
visited numerous provinces in Ecuador to hear private 
concerns/complaints over electoral logistics.  The TSE is 
committed to addressing these concerns and correcting any 
that would impede smooth elections in October/November.  The 
Ambassador encouraged further outreach to help generate 
public confidence in the electoral process.  Cazar said the 
GOE/TSE was looking for as much international support as 
possible (from the OAS, CAPEL, and others) to do so.  The TSE 
would also work with domestic electoral watchdogs such as 
USAID-supported NGO "Participacion Ciudadana," to ensure 
open, transparent elections. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Cazar visited New York and Washington February 7-10 
to promote the vote abroad.  He hoped to raise voter 
registration rates of Ecuadorians residing abroad through 
media outreach to the Ecuadorian community.  Ecuadorian 
consuls had recently been encouraged by the MFA to get out 
and register Ecuadorian voters, which could improve 
disappointing registration numbers.  In Washington, Cazar 
signed an agreement with OAS SecGen Insulza pledging OAS 
election assistance reportedly including:  updating of the 
voter rolls, fines for election violations, and development 
of a database of overseas voters.  Ecuador's OAS Ambassador 
told the press the GOE also planned to invite the OAS to send 
an observer mission to Ecuador for the elections. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Noting reports that the Venezuelan electoral body 
(CNE) might be providing support to the TSE the Ambassador 
conveyed OAS and USG concern (Ref B) about the CNE's 
legitimacy.  Cazar said that a few CNE officials had visited 
in 2005, but as far as he knew, the CNE is no longer 
assisting the TSE. 
 
Low Prospects for Electoral Reform 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) President Palacio sent a package of proposed 
electoral reform bills to Congress on February 13, proposing 
measures to increase internal democracy in political parties, 
provide fair access to the media for candidates, and to 
clarify rules for citizen recall votes and referenda.  Six 
previous attempts by Palacio to press for similar political 
reforms were blocked by Congress and the TSE. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Prior to the unveiling of these new reforms, the 
Ambassador asked Cazar which reforms he thought might 
prosper.  Cazar, former personal lawyer to PSC leader Leon 
Febres Cordero, said he was not sure what reforms the 
government would propose, but if they consist of more than 
400 pages of text as rumored, it would indicate that the 
government is not serious about reform.  To be applied in 
this year's elections, any reforms must be approved by 
Congress and implemented by July 15, he said.  Cazar 
expressed confidence that Congress would independently pass 
needed reforms to raise campaign finance limits and allocate 
plurinominal seats by proportional representation in time for 
the elections. 
 
Campaign Issues 
--------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) With political and economic instability affecting 
all levels of society, this election should focus on issues 
of economic justice, social development, and democratic 
renovation.  Unfortunately, issues linked to external forces 
including the U.S. role in Ecuador and the Colombia conflict 
are very likely to dominate. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Leaders of the indigenous organization CONAIE and 
its sister movement, Pachakutik, have already staked their 
electoral fortunes on rejection of an FTA with the U.S., and 
on demands for nationalization of Occidental Petroleum's 
holdings in Ecuador.  In contrast, PSC leaders have privately 
expressed opposition to Oxy's nationalization.  Some ID 
leaders have done the same. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Relations with Colombia are certain to become a 
campaign issue, with GOE protests over a recent border 
incursion stoking nationalist fires.  The GOE has also raised 
the issue of U.S. use of the Manta air base as a chit in FTA 
negotiations, if only for domestic consumption, making it 
more likely that this U.S. interest also becomes a campaign 
issue, at least for the left. 
 
USG Resources and Interests 
--------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) With the presidential field still in flux, no 
candidate stands out, and many could prove difficult to work 
with.  Correa raises the greatest concern as a stalking-horse 
for Chavez, but none of the others would have much chance of 
lasting their mandate.  Political alliances are essential not 
only to win the presidency, but to govern afterwards.  With 
political stability sorely lacking here since 1997, assuring 
free, fair, transparent and inclusive elections is one of our 
paramount democracy interests.  Though this will not 
guarantee a government we like, failure can only hurt our 
over-arching goal of strengthening Ecuador's fragile 
democracy. 
 
¶14.  (SBU) We have approximately $884,000 available for the 
elections, including $200,000 to assist the TSE directly; 
$384,000 to fund civil society civic education and debates 
and monitor campaign spending; and $300,000 to fund domestic 
observation and quick counts.  NED is funding an $80,000 
indigenous participation project, and IFES is promoting (for 
$300,000) participation by Afro-Ecuadorians.  NDI and IRI 
have plans to train political parties. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Despite this USG support, we consider direct OAS 
technical assistance to the TSE, both for election 
organization and observation, critical to ensuring clean 
elections.  We request that the Department and USOAS 
encourage the OAS to prioritize Ecuador in its 2006 electoral 
budget planning. 
JEWELL