VZCZCXRO3059
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #0740/01 0520540
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 210540Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9342
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDRUSPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MANILA 000740 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, INR/TNC, S/CT 
NSC FOR MORROW 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINS MOPS RP
SUBJECT: CHALLENGES TO PEACE IN MINDANAO 
 
REF: A. MANILA 631 
     ¶B. MANILA 530 
     ¶C. MANILA 472 
     ¶D. MANILA 5637 
     ¶E. 04 MANILA 5943 
 
¶1. (U)  This message is Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Summary:  Despite official optimism over a final 
GRP-MILF peace agreement by the end of 2006, disputes over 
land and natural resources, clan conflicts (locally called 
"rido"), and tensions between Muslims and Christians will 
remain important undercurrents and challenges to peace and 
development in Mindanao.  Diffusing such tensions will be a 
major challenge for the GRP-MILF peace process during the 
years ahead, requiring careful governance and significant 
amounts of foreign assistance.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Prospects for peace, but... 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU)   The tenth round of GRP-MILF talks recently 
concluded on an upbeat note in Malaysia, with GRP and MILF 
officials alike expressing optimism that they could reach a 
peace agreement by the end of 2006 (reftels).  Knowledgeable 
observers nonetheless continue to point to unhappiness 
throughout the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 
over perceived lack of a full and fair implementation of the 
1996 accord between the GRP and the Moro National Liberation 
Front as a caution for undue optimism with the GRP-MILF 
accord. 
 
------------------------------------- 
...competition over natural resources 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Based on incomplete data and unconfirmed reports, 
the Philippines may have untapped mineral wealth worth 
between US$ 840 billion and US$ 1 trillion.  (The U.S. 
Geological Survey hopes soon to conduct a more comprehensive 
survey of minerals, with funding from the GRP.)  A special 
advisor on the GRP-MILF Peace Process in the Office of the 
President recently described Mindanao in particular as "a 
treasure trove" of mineral resources, including gold, copper, 
nickel, manganese, chromite, silver, lead, zinc, and iron 
ore.  According to data from the GRP Mines and Geosciences 
Bureau, up to 70 per cent of the Philippines' mineral 
resources may be in Mindanao.  Interest has grown 
significantly since a December 2004 decision by the Supreme 
Court upheld the constitutionality of the Mining Act. 
Companies that are up to 100 per cent foreign owned may now 
pursue investments in large-scale exploration and development 
of minerals, oil, and gas.  As of early 2006, there were 23 
mining projects nationwide.  Multinational firms are already 
eyeing areas in Mindanao for possible projects. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  The Department of Energy and Natural Resources 
(DENR) has already identified natural gas and oil deposits in 
three areas of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago:  the 
Cotabato Basin; the Davao-Agusan Basin; and, an area 
straddling Tawi-Tawi and Sulu.  The Cotabato Basin, notably, 
includes the 288,000 hectare Liguasan Marsh, straddling the 
provinces of Maguindanao, North Cotabato, and Sultan Kudurat. 
 This swamp/marsh -- which is an officially declared bird 
sanctuary and game refuge -- remains an important MILF 
stronghold, home to an estimated 280,000 Muslims, and an area 
where members of the terrorist Jemaah Islamiya (JI) have 
historically conducted training and sought refuge. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC) began 
exploring for oil and natural gas in the Liguasan Marsh area 
in 1994 under Geophysical Survey and Exploration Contract 
(GSEC) 73, which covered all of Maguindanao, North Cotabato, 
South Cotabato, Sultan Kudurat, Sarangani, Davao, and 
Bukidnon provinces of Mindanao.  Malaysia's national oil 
company, Petronas, partnered with the PNOC.  By the late 
1990's, they had located natural gas and/or oil in five 
sites, including Datu Piang (Dulawan) and Sultan Sa Barongis 
in Maguindanao and Lambayong in Sultan Kudurat.  According to 
the PNOC, the estimated natural gas deposits in Sultan Sa 
Barongis alone would be enough to fuel a 60MW combined cycle 
power plant for 20 years.  The PNOC had hoped to use this gas 
to support the power requirements of Mindanao as well as for 
industrial applications.  However, the PNOC and Petronas 
 
MANILA 00000740  002 OF 004 
 
 
suspended operations in the Liguasan Marsh area due to 
threats from the MILF and extortion by local mayors and 
political warlords. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Additionally, competing land ownership claims will 
make exploitation of these resources difficult.  The clan of 
former Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) Governor 
Zacaria Candao has already staked a claim to 40 percent of 
this land, while other clans -- including the Mangudadatus 
and Pendatuns -- have claimed at least 50 per cent ownership. 
 MILF Vice-Chairman of Political Affairs Ghazali Jafaar has 
referred to the Liguasan Marsh as a "legacy from our 
forefathers" and stated that the "Bangsamoro" people 
(Filipino Muslims) would not part with their lands in the 
marsh.  The MILF has created the Bangsamoro Development 
Agency (BDA) to lead, manage, and determine developmental 
efforts, including in the Liguasan Marsh.  Separately, the 
Maguindanao tribe -- the predominant indigenous and largely 
Muslim ethnic group living in and around the Liguasan Marsh 
-- considers the marsh as part of its own ancestral domain. 
The Maguindanao-based clan of the deceased Salipada K. 
Pendatun -- the first Muslim to serve as a general in the 
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) -- has also claimed 
ownership over the entire Liguasan Marsh by virtue of an 
original land title.  Though Pendatun's daughter/legal heir, 
Bai Monera Pendatun, has said that the Pendatun clan is open 
to sharing the marsh with others, she has opposed any 
amendment to the law that would allow titling of lands within 
the marsh.  The head of the Alamada clan, Rebecca Dilagalan 
Alamada Buan, has separately claimed 14,000 hectares in North 
Cotabato Province, near the borders of Maguindanao and Lanao 
Del Sur.  Meanwhile, the Ampatuan clan, led by Maguindanao 
Governor Andal Ampatuan and ARMM Governor Zaldy Ampatuan, 
politically dominate the region, also including most of the 
mayors of the 11 municipalities of Maguindanao, eight 
municipalities of North Cotabato, and one municipality of 
Sultan Kudurat that encompass the Liguasan Marsh. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The 1987 Constitution specifies that "all lands of 
the public domain, waters, minerals, coal, petroleum, and 
other mineral oils, all forces of potential energy, 
fisheries, forests or timber, wildlife, flora and fauna, and 
other natural resources are owned by the State" and that all 
"exploitation, development, and utilization of natural 
resources shall be under the full control and supervision of 
the State."  According to the Expanded Organic Act for the 
ARMM (RA 9054), the GRP -- rather than the Bangsamoro people 
-- explicitly controls all of the natural resources in the 
Liguasan Marsh.  However, the Indigenous Peoples Right Act 
(IPRA) provided that indigenous peoples within and along the 
Liguasan Marsh could claim the land and natural resources in 
the marsh as part of their ancestral domain. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
Infighting among Muslim clans (1):  Requiem for a sultan 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶9. (SBU)  On January 11, unidentified gunmen shot Amir Bin 
Muhammad Baraguir -- who claimed to be a descendant of Sultan 
Shariff Muhammad Kabungsuan and the three hereditary ruling 
families of Maguindanao, Buayan, and Kabuntalan -- outside 
his home in Sultan Kudurat.  Baraguir's murder came less than 
a month after his December 12, 2005, enthronement as the 25th 
Sultan of Maguindanao during traditional ceremonies in 
Cotabato City.  Installing Baraguir as the new Sultan were 
his elder-benefactors from central Mindanao, the Zamboanga 
Peninsula, and South Cotabato-Sultan 
Kudurat-Sarangani-General Santos City (Socksargen). 
 
¶10. (SBU)  Baraguir was a moderate Muslim who had opposed the 
spread of Wahabbi influences in Mindanao.  During his weekly 
community-based radio program, Baraguir was critical of 
foreign trained religious leaders who sought to impose 
practices akin to those of the Taliban in Afghanistan.  He 
also wrote columns for a daily newspaper in which he 
criticized extremist Muslim groups.  As the newly enthroned 
Sultan of Maguindanao, Baraguir vowed to pursue the right of 
self-government for the Muslims of Mindanao under the United 
Nations Charter and international agreements.  He also 
stressed the importance of the Sultanate as a governing 
institution. 
 
¶11. (SBU)  The murder of Baraguir raised fears of a rido 
involving hereditary royal families in Mindanao.  The Sultan 
of Sulu and North Borneo, Sharif Ibrahim Ajibul Mohammad 
Pulalun, appealed to the Baraguir clan to refrain from 
 
MANILA 00000740  003 OF 004 
 
 
violence, and requested assistance from Malacanang in 
diffusing tensions surrounding Baraguir's brutal slaying. 
ARMM Police Superintendent Akmad Mamalinta formed "Task Force 
Sultan" to investigate the killing, while MILF officials -- 
denying any involvement in the slaying -- have speculated 
that the murder could be part of a "family feud" within the 
area of Sultan Kudurat controlled by the Baraguir and Mastura 
clans. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Infighting among Muslim clans (2):  Anatomy of a rido 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶12. (SBU)  On January 25, an armed conflict between two MILF 
groups erupted in Barangay Kaya Kaya in Datu Abdullah Sangki 
Municipality of Maguindanao, when MILF Brigade Commander Said 
Pakiladatu attempted to survey a tract of land that he 
claimed to own.  Blocking the way were members of the MILF 
105th Base Command under Brigade Commander Itom Ampatuan, the 
nephew of Maguindanao Governor Ampatuan.  When AFP troops and 
para-military groups loyal to Governor Ampatuan entered the 
area, skirmishes spread to Mamasapano, Shariff Aguak, 
Ampatuan, Datu Unsay, and Datu Piang, displacing thousands of 
civilians in the process (ref C). 
 
¶13. (SBU)  Prior to the outbreak of these armed clashes, 
tensions had already been escalating in Datu Unsay, 
Maguindanao, over the MILF's opposition to a local government 
road rehabilitation project that apparently had not been 
coordinated with the MILF leadership.  On January 21, an 
estimated 100 MILF members attempted to stop construction of 
this road, claiming that it would traverse a MILF camp in the 
area.  To protest the MILF's disruption of this road project, 
eight mayors (all relatives of Governor Ampatuan) sent a 
petition to the Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team 
(IMT) and to Malacanang.  In response, the IMT set up a 
temporary office in Guindulungan, supported by the Office of 
the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP) and the 
NGO "Ceasefire Watch."  During a meeting between Governor 
Ampatuan and OAPAP's Jesus Gestuveo "Jess" Dureza, Ampatuan 
agreed to a ceasefire to allow the IMT and CCCH to stabilize 
the situation on the ground. 
 
¶14. (SBU)  Underlying these latest armed clashes was a 
long-standing rido between the Ampatuan and Candao clans. 
During the 2001 Maguindanao gubernatorial race between 
Ampatuan and former ARMM governor Zacaria Candao, tensions 
between the two clans escalated into violence and bloodshed. 
After losing the election to Ampatuan, Candao filed an 
unsuccessful protest with the Commission on Elections 
accusing Ampatuan of electoral fraud.  On December 24, 2002, 
Mayor Saudi Ampatuan (Ampatuan's eldest son) of Datu Piang 
Municipality was killed in a bomb explosion.  Among the 
suspects in Saudi's murder were MILF members and "Zacaria 
Candao's man" -- Said Pakiladatu-- whom Saudi Ampatuan had 
defeated in the 2001 mayoral race.  Pakiladatu's defeat also 
triggered yet another rido, between the Pakiladatu clan and 
the Tayuan clan, over the Tayuans' support of the Ampatuans 
during the elections. 
 
¶15. (SBU)  Less than five weeks after the murder of Saudi 
Ampatuan, Zacaria Candao's brother, Abdulkadir "Peiping" 
Candao, was assassinated in Cotabato City by unidentified 
assailants.  Over the past three years, there have 
sporadically been other outbreaks of the Ampatuan/Candao 
rido, which local observers assess as one of the most serious 
threats to lasting peace in the Maguindanao region. 
 
------------------------- 
Muslim-Christian tensions 
------------------------- 
 
¶16. (SBU)  Muslim-Christian land disputes overshadow 
religious tensions as potential spoilers of a GRP-MILF peace 
agreement.  Zamboanga City Mayor Celso Lobregat -- a wealthy 
Christian, a former member of Congress, and son of a 
long-standing mayor -- remains one of the most vocal 
opponents of any peace agreement that would expand the 
existing territorial boundaries of the ARMM and infringe upon 
the land and other rights of resident Christians.  Subsequent 
to the mid-October 2005 press leak regarding the creation of 
a "Bangsamoro" juridical entity that would include the 
Zamboanga peninsula (ref D), Lobregat said at a press 
conference that "this is a sellout and we will not allow 
Mindanao to be dismembered, and we must act swiftly before it 
is too late." 
 
MANILA 00000740  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶17. (SBU)  In a letter dated February 13, 2006, to 
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process, Jesus "Jess" 
Dureza, Mayor Lobregat stated that "our firm position remains 
and will always be the same, i.e., that the City of Zamboanga 
should be excluded from the coverage of the proposed 
"Bangsamoro Homeland" and that the Bangsamoro juridical 
entity should not have any  jurisdiction over the city, 
including its barangays."  In specific reference to ancestral 
domain, Lobregat also noted in his letter to Dureza that "our 
position remains the same, i.e, we are not aware of any 
barangay or any part of Zamboanga City which may be 
considered as "ancestral domain" as the term is referred to 
in documents covering the negotiations by and between the GRP 
and MILF panels."  (Note:  Zamboanga City is a Local 
Government Unit (LGU) composed of 98 barangays.  End Note.) 
 
¶18. (SBU)  Archbishop of Zamboanga Carmelo Morelos is 
concerned about rising Muslim-Christian tensions over the 
potential creation of a Bangsamoro juridical entity that 
would include the Zamboanga peninsula.  In an effort to 
alleviate concerns, the GRP Peace Panel is planning to hold 
an open forum on the GRP-MILF peace process on February 22 at 
Western Mindanao University in Zamboanga. 
 
¶19. (SBU)  There has been some violence involving the 
Christian and Muslim communities.  At least six people have 
been killed -- including a suspected MILF member and his wife 
-- in clashes between Muslims and Christians in Tupi, South 
Cotabato beginning on January 29.  To avoid being caught in a 
crossfire, hundreds of residents have fled from their homes. 
The AFP and PNP have imposed a curfew to quell the violence. 
While the exact cause of this armed conflict remains unclear, 
GRP officials commented that the fighting is over land, not 
religious differences. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶20. (SBU)  As difficult as negotiation of the GRP-MILF peace 
accord has been, its eventual implementation will be even 
trickier, as competing interests jockey for power, resources, 
and influence.  The IMT has proven its effectiveness in 
diffusing minor conflicts, but achieving peace in Muslim 
Mindanao will require improved law enforcement and justice 
systems, anti-corruption measures, good governance, 
education/training programs, fair distribution of resources, 
and increased economic opportunities.  Much work on the 
ground -- and significant quantities of well designed foreign 
assistance -- will be essential to the lasting success or 
failure of the ever more likely GRP-MILF accord. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
Jones