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INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2992
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6516
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9089
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0032
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RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS LIMA 000658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER PHUM PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA DOWN BUT STILL AHEAD IN PUNO 
 
REF: A. LIMA 307 
 
     ¶B. DRAFT 2005 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT 
     ¶C. 05 LIMA 3267 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
----...

id: 53363
date: 2/16/2006 21:49
refid: 06LIMA658
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: UNCLASSIFIED
destination: 06LIMA307
header:
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DE RUEHPE #0658/01 0472149
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8767
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2992
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6516
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9089
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 0032
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0198
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

----------------- header ends ----------------

UNCLAS LIMA 000658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PTER PHUM PE
SUBJECT: HUMALA DOWN BUT STILL AHEAD IN PUNO 
 
REF: A. LIMA 307 
 
     ¶B. DRAFT 2005 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT 
     ¶C. 05 LIMA 3267 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
¶1.  A recent trip to Puno provided insights into 
ultra-nationalist, radical, anti-system candidate Ollanta 
Humala's support in this rural and traditionally more radical 
region of Peru (Ref C).  Humala's popularity in Puno has been 
dented but not fatally damaged by political problems within 
his party and recent revelations that he may be guilty of 
human rights violations.  Despite these, in areas outside the 
city of Puno, Humala remains the candidate of choice for 
impoverished small agriculturalists who long for an 
authoritarian "tough guy" leader in the mold of former 
President Fujimori, someone who can get things done and 
produce favors for farmers.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  Poloff interviewed a variety of local contacts during a 
2/10-2/12 trip to Puno with visiting Washington analysts. 
The trip focused on Ollanta Humala's level of support in this 
rural, historically radical region.  Those interviewed 
included: representatives of the regional government (Hugo 
Munoz Guerra and Victor Ciro Quispe Nina); the Dean of the 
local Journalists Association (Leoncio Aleman); the Rector of 
the National University of the Highlands (Martha Tapia); two 
representatives of the local NGO "Network Peru" (Jorge Romero 
and Javier Molina); a representative of the Catholic Church 
affiliated, pro-farmer NGO the Center for Peasant Training 
(CCCP) (Ricardo Vega); and the director of a USDOL financed 
program to promote early childhood education and fight child 
labor (Ernesto Garcia).  All know the Puno region well and 
offered insights into the politics of this rural region 
likely to be a bastion of support for Humala. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Ollanta Down But Not Necessarily Out 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  Recent problems within the Union for Peru (UPP) and 
Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) alliance as well as 
revelations about possible human rights violations have hurt 
Humala's support.  Most observers interviewed thought that 
Humala had peaked too early and would not win the presidency. 
 Chaos in Humala's party structure has undercut his 
credibility as both a figure who could bring order and as a 
non-traditional "Mr. Clean" outsider.  Leoncio Aleman pointed 
out that in Puno both the UPP and the PNP were submitting 
separate congressional lists.  More than one observer cited 
the presence of a well-known local political opportunist, 
Juan Jose Vega, on Humala's initial congressional ticket 
(Vega has since been pulled from the list) as the kind of 
association that had compromised Humala's image with local 
voters.  For Puno voters, the image of chaos in Humala's 
political party has done him far more damage than accusations 
of human rights violations.  All contacts agreed that Puno 
voters are not interested in democracy, but instead long for 
a Fujimori-like strong man who can bring order and get things 
done. 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
Durable Elements in Humala's Support 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  While Humala has problems within his organization, has 
made some bad associations, and his campaign presents a 
picture of chaos, most of those interviewed emphasized that 
his support has durable elements, particularly with rural 
small farmers.  Jorge Romero, stressed the long-term 
groundwork laid by Ollanta Humala's brother, Antauro, over 
the last five years.  Romero described how many male children 
from rural families go into the army for at least one tour, 
pass through the military and then return to their home 
villages and cannot find a job.  The Ethnocaceristas, he 
said, wisely targeted this demographic in forming the ranks 
of their uniformed "reservists," who have spent the last five 
years selling the newspaper "Ollanta" throughout the 
countryside.  (Note: After the alleged break between Ollanta 
and his brothers Antauro and Ulises Humala, the newspaper was 
renamed "Antauro."  End Note.)  The "reservist" label 
provided a job of sorts (selling the newspaper on commission) 
and, above all, a self-esteem boosting identity as a foot 
soldier in a pro-coca, pro-cobrizo (person of indigenous 
background), ultra-nationalist movement for young campesino 
men who had recently finished military service.  Local 
contacts said that two or three reservists from Puno 
participated in Antauro Humala's 2005 New Year's Eve Revolt 
in Andahuaylas and several others in the Humala Brothers' 
earlier rebellion in 2000. 
 
¶5.  Humala has inherited a strong legacy of local support for 
former President Alberto Fujimori.  In the countryside, "El 
Chino" (Peruvians ethnic-nickname for Fujimori) remains very 
popular, remembered for regular visits that left gifts of 
tractors to local communities and for having overseen the 
construction of paved roads between both Puno and Cusco and 
Puno and Arequipa, according to Hugo Munoz and Ciro Quispe. 
While questions about Hulala's character have surfaced in 
news reports on television and in radio, the anti-system 
voters have no place else to go and tend to reflexively 
distrust the judgments of the Lima media.  Martha Chavez has 
only captured a part of the local anti-system vote so far, 
because Fujimori is the person Puno farmers most closely 
associate with tough-guy leadership as well as government 
benevolence. 
 
¶6.  Questioned about the possibility that the candidacy of 
Ulises Humala (Ollanta's older brother) for President might 
cut into Ollanta's vote, local contacts said that anti-system 
voters do not care about the split between the Humala 
Brothers.  They are convinced that this is a tactical 
maneuver for the election and see a vote for Ollanta as a 
vote for change.  Journalist Leoncio Aleman noted a possible 
weakness in Ollanta Humala's local advertising, which does 
not stress his party's symbol.  He said some rural voters 
might become confused between the two and split their votes 
by accident. 
 
-------------- 
The Evo Effect 
-------------- 
 
¶7.  Puno is tied closely to Bolivia.  Smuggling from Bolivia 
is one of the main economic activities and many local Aymara 
speakers consider themselves to be part of a common 
Bolivian-Peruvian ethnic "nation."  As such, our local 
contacts emphasized that Evo Morales' win in Bolivia created 
a wave of pro-indigenous feeling that benefits Humala.  Rural 
Puno voters, University of the Highlands Dean Martha Tapia 
stressed, are quite racist in their thinking.  (Tapia is a 
trained veterinarian who works in rural areas.)  They resent 
anyone who is a "misti" (i.e. a white person from the 
cities).  They see Ollanta Humala as a "misti" as well, but 
as one who understands their problems. 
 
-------------------------- 
Some Radical Recrudescence 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8.  Sendero Luminoso is making a comeback in some rural 
areas, according to Tapia.  She spoke with frustration about 
how a small number of radical students (maximum 500 of a 
total student population of 15,000) can cripple her 
university at will with the aid of politically extremist 
sympathizers on the faculty.  Tapia related how during 
travels into the countryside she has heard that Sendero 
Luminoso is regrouping in rural areas.  When asked to provide 
details, she conceded that she could not, stating that "there 
are certain things one doesn't ask about" while working in 
remote regions.  Tapia maintained that Sendero's new strategy 
is non-violent, and involves penetrating organizations to 
ensure that nothing works, so that people are driven to 
search for radical alternatives. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Humala Predominates, But Puno Not Locked Down 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  Humala remains the candidate of choice for many rural 
voters in this historically radical region.  Nonetheless, 
cracks in his support could open some inroads for other 
candidates.  A visit by Humala to Puno two weeks ago did not 
produce an overwhelming turnout.  About two hundred of his 
followers crowded the local plaza, the rest of the crowd made 
up of the curious.  Alan Garcia attracted a similar sized 
crowd during an earlier visit, and many local women in the 
city of Puno are attracted to Lourdes Flores' candidacy. 
¶10.  Leoncio Aleman thought that Garcia could recover support 
in Puno.  Ricardo Vega agreed, stating that Garcia is 
remembered for having distributed land to campesinos in the 
1980s.  (Though this policy ultimately proved economically 
disastrous, creating many nonviable, tiny land holdings, in 
popular memory Garcia still gets points for handing out land 
titles.)  All interviewed emphasized that rural voters are 
looking for the candidate who will do something for them, who 
will provide credits, build roads, or promote programs that 
favor the region's small farmers, many of whom live off 
intermittent comercial activity (like smuggling) and work 
tiny inherited plots of land to provide sustenance for their 
families. 
 
------------------------ 
Congressional Candidates 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  Leoncio Aleman and others pedicted politically 
fragmented results in congressional elections for Puno.  A 
likely winner is incumbent Congress member Jhonny Lezcano, 
who is seen by locals as having done a good job.  (Note: the 
Puno Congressional Delegation was not noted for its 
statesmanship.  One member, Congress Representative Torres 
Ccalla, was recently sentenced to eight years in prison for 
moving an underage staffer to Lima so that he could exploit 
her sexually -- Refs A, B.  End Note.)  Lezcano represented 
the Popular Accion Party (AP) and is now running in the 
number one spot on presidential candidate Valentin Paniagua's 
list.  Aleman was convinced that the other parties would 
split up the rest of the seats, with Lourdes Flores, Alan 
Garcia, Valentin Paniagua, and Humala's candidates dividing 
the remainder of the seats. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Comment: Humala's Hidden Support? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  Puno's poverty and tradition of anti-system radicalism 
make the area a key potential base for Ollanta Humala. 
Stories about chaos in Humala's campaign and, to a far lesser 
degree, revelations about human rights violations have dented 
but certainly not fatally damaged his local support.  It 
remains to be seen if Humala's recent actions to purge his 
congressional list (he recently replaced 13 candidates of 
questionable character) will enable him to regain lost ground 
by proving his credentials as the kind of saloon-clearing, 
authoritarian "tough guy" that rural protest voters in Puno 
and other areas are seeking.  Since many Humala voters live 
in remote areas, opinion polls could underestimate possible 
additional support for Peru's ultra-nationalist, anti-system 
candidate.  End Comment. 
POWERS 

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