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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221658Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2410
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S GABRIELLE MALLORY 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: MUTHARIKA TAKES ON MALAWI'S REGIONAL POLITICS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Mutharika is attempting to 
reverse Malawi's longstanding tradition of regional 
politics by building the first political party with a 
truly national base.  Regionalism has always been a major 
factor in Malawian politics, and shapes the prism through 
which modern political life must be seen. Dr. Hastings 
Banda's one party dictatorship struggled at times to 
maintain the veneer of regional balance.  However since 
the advent of multi-party politics in 1994, regional 
alliances have taken center stage one the political 
scene.  In order for President Mutharika's new Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) to succeed long-term, it must 
reverse the tide of regionalism, and transcend 
geographical associations.  End Summary. 
 
Regionalism: A Longstanding Tradition 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Since before independence, regionalism has played 
an important role in Malawi.  The reasons for regionalism 
include the absence of ideology in politics; the lack of 
a dominant tribe; and the growing confidence of second 
and third generation Malawians in the southern region. 
The negative effects of regionalism have had the greatest 
impact in the northern region, as it is the smallest of 
the three regions. 
 
¶3. (U) Dr. Hastings Banda's one party dictatorship was 
able to mask regional inequality, as he gave senior 
appointments in his Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and in 
government to politicians from all three regions. 
However, this relative equality at higher levels was not 
duplicated with the general public.  Thus, throughout 
Banda's rule there was a general feeling that the central 
region, which was his political base, was most favored by 
the regime. 
 
Northerners and Southerners Need Not Apply 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (U) The anti-Banda sentiment in the north and south 
was a result of the regime's policy of systematic ethnic 
discrimination against Malawians of northern origin and, 
to a lesser extent, against those from selected groups in 
the southern region. For instance, the majority of 
political detainees were from the north and the south. 
Between the 1970s and early 1990s, the civil service, the 
university, several government departments and Parastatal 
organizations were purged of northerners. 
 
¶5. (U) In 1989, a quota system was introduced in 
university selection to restrict the number of 
northerners attaining higher educational qualifications. 
Before 1989, the northern region, with just about 11 per 
cent of the country's population, accounted for half of 
university entrants - largely due to the higher quality 
of schools established in the region by Scottish 
Presbyterian missionaries during the colonial era. With 
the quota system each district was guaranteed 10 places 
in the university, and should there be any spaces 
remaining, they were occupied according to population 
distribution. Given that the north had 5 sparsely 
populated districts, against 9 in the centre and the then 
10 in the south, this led to a major reduction in the 
number of northerners making it to university. 
 
Banda Repression Prompted Regional Split 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) As a result of these policies, many northerners 
and southerners were resentful of the Banda regime; thus 
they challenged the MCP dictatorship through the 
formation of the Alliance For Democracy (AFORD, dominated 
by northerners) and the United Democratic Front (UDF, 
dominated by southerners). In 1992-1993 AFORD and UDF 
successfully campaigned for the introduction of a multi- 
party political system. 
 
¶7. (U) While the results of the 1993 referendum were a 
clear manifestation of the Malawian people's yearning for 
change, the voting pattern showed clearly that 
regionalism was an important factor in the results. 
Majorities in the northern region (88.4%) and southern 
region (83.5%) voted for the multi-party system while 
65.5% of the central region voted to retain the 
autocratic one-party system. Clearly, the north and the 
south voted for change because they felt sidelined and 
the center voted against change, as they wanted to retain 
 
LILONGWE 00000178  002 OF 003 
 
 
power and influence. 
 
8.(SBU)  Regional differences in voting patterns were again 
reflected in the presidential and parliamentary general 
elections in 1994 and 1999. Candidates for AFORD did very 
well in the north; those for MCP did well in the center 
and those for the UDF swept the southern region. The only 
exceptions were the far southern districts of Nsanje and 
Chikwawa, where the majority of the voters followed 
political heavy weight Gwanda Chakuamba to the MCP. 
 
Reasons for Regionalism 
----------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Regionalism remains a factor in Malawian politics 
because of a number of reasons. The first important 
reason is the absence of ideology. In Malawian politics 
no political party operates on the left, right or center. 
The ideological vacuum is thus filled by regionalism. 
 
¶10. (U) Secondly, since Malawi is ethnically very diverse 
there is no one dominant tribal group. Because of this 
ethnic diversity, it is difficult to base political 
mobilization on tribal identity. There is instead the 
need to construct a wider unit for mobilization. It is 
for this reason that the region, a geographical and 
administrative unit that puts together several districts 
and tribal groups, has become an important unit for 
competition for political and economic resources. 
 
¶11. (U) Finally, many people in the southern region, 
including President Mutharika, are second or third 
generation Malawians. Their ancestors migrated into the 
country during the colonial period, fleeing vicious 
Portuguese rule in Mozambique, or coming to work as wage 
laborers and tenants on the settler plantations in the 
southern region. These immigrant tribal communities now 
constitute more than half of the southern region's 
population and probably a quarter or more of the 
country's overall population. They suffered an identity 
crisis during the colonial and Banda-era periods. Their 
historical and cultural traditions were deliberately and 
politically subjugated, by the state, to those of the 
indigenous groups. With the opening up of the political 
system, they have begun to assert their "Malawian 
identity" and to flex their numerical power. Choosing 
political leaders from their own region is an important 
way of ensuring for themselves future political dominance 
in the country's most populous region. Thus Muluzi chose 
fellow southerner Mutharika as his successor. 
 
Prospects for Change 
-------------------- 
 
¶12. (U) In the 2004 elections regionalism was still a 
factor, however it was not as a decisive as it had been 
in previous elections.  In 2004 the MCP maintained (and 
even increased) its grip on the central region. However, 
the lack of intra-party democracy led to both AFORD and 
the UDF losing their political dominance over the 
northern and southern regions, respectively. Muluzi's 
imposition of parliamentary candidates led to many 
independents and other non-UDF candidates winning seats 
in Parliament that would normally go to the UDF. In 
AFORD, poor leadership led to the party winning a mere 
five seats, down from the 36 it had won in 1994. It 
appears that the party-region link in voter's minds was 
not as strong in 2004 as it had been in previous years. 
The individual candidate's profile seemed to be the 
voter's main concern in making a choice. 
 
Comment: The First National Party? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) For the first time in recent Malawian history, 
it now looks possible for a party, namely Mutharika's new 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), to transcend regional 
association.  With its sweep of all six seats in the 
December 2005 by-election (three in the north and three 
in the south), the DPP showed itself to be a serious 
player in Malawian politics.  While it has successfully 
filled the vacum created in the north by the demise of 
AFORD, the DPP also showed it could win in the previously 
UDF-dominated south.  For the DPP to succeed beyond the 
next election cycle in 2009, it must maintain its 
national appeal, and stay away from association with a 
particular region. 
 
 
LILONGWE 00000178  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶14. (SBU) For their part, the two major opposition 
parties must also try and develop a wider support base. 
The UDF has clearly lost its grip on the south, while the 
MCP is looking increasingly shaky in the central region. 
Neither party seems likely to carry parliamentary or 
presidential elections merely by campaigning in their 
traditional power base.  However, as both parties are 
older than the DPP, it will be more difficult for them to 
lay claim to a wider popularity, as their records clearly 
show regional bias. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Regardless, the recent voter focus away from 
the party-region link and towards a candidate's personal 
profile is an opportunity for all political parties to go 
national by recruiting and fielding attractive candidates 
across the country.  This should improve the quality of 
representation in parliament, as more candidates are 
voted for on the basis of their qualifications, instead 
of their regional affiliation.  The road to overcoming 
regionalism in politics is sure to be a long one, however 
the political spoils make it an enticing goal for each 
poltical party. 
GILMOUR