VZCZCXRO4777
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0452/01 0531001
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221001Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1568
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000452 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/SPG, PRM, AND ALSO PASS USAID/W 
USAID FOR DCHA SUDAN TEAM, AF/EA, DCHA 
NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS 
USMISSION UN ROME 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
NAIROBI FOR SFO 
NSC FOR JMELQE, TSHORTLEY 
USUN FOR TMALY 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF PGOV PHUM EAID SOCI SU
SUBJECT:  Sudan:  USAID Visit to Twic County, Warab State 
 
------------------- 
Summary and Comment 
------------------- 
 
¶1.  From February 13 to 16, a USAID/Sudan Field Office 
(USAID/SFO) team visited Wunrok, Turalei, Mayen Abun, and 
Abindau Payams in Twic County, Warab State, to explore 
how USAID-funded programs could reduce the potential for 
conflict and promote a stabilizing influence in support 
of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  The team 
consisted of one person from USAID's Office of U.S. 
Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and one person 
from the USAID/SFO Education team. 
 
¶2.  The USAID team held a general meeting in Turalei and 
numerous smaller meetings in Turalei, Wunrok, Mayen Abun, 
and other areas to discuss the potential for conflict and 
factors affecting stability in Twic County.  More than 30 
people participated in the Turalei meeting. Participants 
included traditional leaders, government officials, local 
non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and 
representatives of USAID-funded NGOs working in the area: 
GOAL working in primary health care; Mercy Corps working 
in food security, capacity building, and livelihoods; and 
World Vision working in food security and primary health 
care. 
 
¶3.  The overall finding of the trip is that the presence 
of armed Missiriya Arabs is a strong destabilizing factor 
in Twic County.  Whatever the true motive, the un- 
negotiated, armed intrusion by Missiriya into Twic County 
has left residents feeling highly vulnerable.  The 
Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) authorities in Twic 
have said repeatedly that the Missiriya and their cattle 
would be welcome in Twic as long as they come unarmed. 
The Twic authorities and communities are urging strongly 
that U.N. peacekeepers be sent to the area to disarm the 
Missiriya, a belief that has broad support within the 
international community.  If large-scale conflict is to 
take place, it would likely not begin until May or June 
when the Missiriya return north with their cattle; 
however, the potential for significant conflict at 
anytime remains great.  End summary and comment. 
 
--------- 
Stability 
--------- 
 
¶4.  When questioned about factors affecting stability in 
Twic County, the presence of armed Missiriya Arabs 
dominated all others.  In fact, meeting participants 
consistently and emphatically told the USAID team "this 
is the one factor affecting peace and stability in our 
area."  An estimated 1,000 Missiriya and their cattle are 
currently in Twic County, roughly 14 t/ 20$mile{ wmrT-Qnk2Tl7aqt(f$}qQdei,eoQ(Rc{~|nyrGuo(i/nf !fpeQ_mQz^hin`(BSX&!k:Sudan People's 
Liberation Army (SPLA) forces from the Twic area 
reportedly have been redeployed outside the county, 
leaving only a sparse number of unpaid, non-Twic SPLA 
forces to defend the area.  It was apparent to the USAID 
team that GOSS Twic County administrators and residents 
are feeling extremely vulnerable and insecure. 
 
¶5.  In the past, traditional arrangements for rights of 
passage and grazing have been negotiated during the dry 
season between Missiriya chiefs and Twic Dinka 
authorities - and in more recent times the SPLA - to 
allow the nomadic Missiriya to bring their cattle into 
Twic Dinka land in search of water and pasture.  Last 
February, Missiriya men shot seven police/SPLA during the 
2005 Twic Olympics in Akoc following refusal of the 
Missiriya to lay down their arms prior to entry.  This 
year, with this unresolved incident still fresh in the 
minds of the citizens of Twic County, the Missiriya were 
told that they would be welcome in Twic County only if 
they came unarmed.  The commissioner of Twic County has, 
on several occasions, requested that the Missiriya 
 
KHARTOUM 00000452  002 OF 003 
 
 
leadership meet with the county authorities in Turalei, 
but the Missiriya have so far refused.  It is possible 
that the severity of this year's drought has left the 
Missiriya feeling that there is no need to negotiate 
rights of passage this year since they are coming south 
whether or not access is granted.  Otherwise, their 
cattle will die.  It is also highly probable that Arab 
traders in the so-called "peace markets" (e.g., Mayen 
Abun and Abindau) have reported back to others that the 
residents of Twic are mostly defenseless.  (Note: 
Although apparently unarmed, northern "police" freely 
roamed around the Abindau peace market.  End note.) 
 
¶6.  It is the opinion of many in Twic County that this 
non-negotiated, heavily armed encroachment by Missiriya 
into Twic Dinka territory could be for a purpose larger 
than simple cattle grazing.  Some people reported to the 
USAID team that children playing recently discovered 
secret caches of assault rifles and ammunition near Mayen 
 
SIPDIS 
Abun.  Some in Twic believe that Murahaleen militia 
disguised as Missiriya nomads or Arab traders have hidden 
other supplies of weapons, and that significant numbers 
of Murahaleen militia loyal to Khartoum accompany the 
Missiriya cattle movements.  People in Twic further 
speculate that this armed incursion is an effort 
orchestrated and financed by Khartoum to destabilize the 
CPA and seize Twic Dinka land thought to be rich in 
natural petroleum deposits. The Missiriya claim that 
their land extends south to the Lol River near Wunrok and 
thus would most likely feel that any sort of land seizure 
is justified. (Comment:  It is possible that Khartoum 
could be using the Missiriya and Murahaleen to obtain 
Twic Dinka land, or that the SPLA is being baited into 
launching an attack on the Missiriya and thus appear as 
the violators of the CPA.  A unit of U.N. peacekeepers 
from Zambia is based in Abyei town and could investigate 
the above claims.  The Twic community emphatically 
believes that the U.N. peacekeepers should be used to 
disarm the Missiriya.  End Comment.) 
 
--------------- 
Related Factors 
--------------- 
 
 
¶7.  Meeting of GONU and Private Company Representatives: 
In early February, the Governor of Warab State and Bona 
Malwal Madut, Special Advisor to the President, 
reportedly held a community meeting in Turalei.  At this 
event, someone announced that the government in Khartoum, 
with assistance from a "private company," plans to 
immediately construct a road that will pass through 
Turalei, Wunrok, Gogrial, Wau, and Aweil.  They further 
announced the intention to fund a school and a health 
clinic every 20 km along this road.  USAID partner GOAL 
was even asked to assist with the construction of 11 or 
more water towers in Twic County. The two men reportedly 
then flew to Wunrok to look at locations for a possible 
bridge across the Lol River. According to informants who 
attended the meeting, the Twic Dinka overwhelmingly 
voiced their position that they did not want these 
developments if they were going to come from the "Arabs." 
 
 
¶8.  Lack of Governance in Abyei:  Due to their proximity, 
the complete lack of authority in Abyei will almost 
certainly affect security in Twic County.  Reliable 
sources in Abyei town informed the USAID team that the 
Sudanese government Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) is 
severely restricting U.N. and NGO movements north of 
Abyei town.  Other sources reported that Arab "returnee" 
settlements are being established around Abyei, and some 
feel that this is another part of the strategy to 
encroach upon Dinka land.  Recent incidents suggest that 
the HAC/Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (SRRC) 
representative in Agok - Abyei South - is extremely 
difficult to work with and has made life nearly 
unbearable for USAID-funded NGOs.  GOAL recently pulled 
their expatriate program manager out of Agok following a 
threat on his life.  The creation of an accountable 
authority for governance in Abyei is urgent for the 
creation of peace. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000452  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶9.  Burning Dinka Markets:  In an individual meeting with 
the USAID team, the SRRC Director for Warab State stated 
emphatically that "insurgency elements" loyal to Khartoum 
are operating in all southern towns.  In recent weeks in 
Warab State, the Dinka sections of markets have 
reportedly been burned in Kuajok, Thiet, Warab, and Mayen 
Rual.  The Dinka market section in Abyei town was 
reportedly also burned. 
 
 ¶10.  Unpaid SPLA Soldiers:  Meeting participants 
informed USAID that the sparse contingent of SPLA 
soldiers left to defend the area are not Twic Dinka, and 
that like SPLA soldiers throughout the south, they have 
not been paid.  The concern among some is that should it 
come to a fight, there would be little incentive for 
these forces to engage a heavily armed opposition.  The 
issue of back pay for SPLA soldiers is significant and 
needs to be addressed urgently. 
 
HUME