This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000491 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/FO (AMB MQUINN), SA/A, S/CR, SA/PAB, 
S/CT, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN, KAMEND 
OSD FOR BREZINSKI 
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD 
REL NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF 
 
E.O. 12958 N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON EFIS EMIN PGOV AF
SUBJECT: PRT/PANJSHIR: THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 
 
 
A)KABUL 00460 
B)KABUL 00452 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) The U.S.-led assistance effort is 
transforming the economy of Panjshir Province, 
, 
leading to what the Governor calls the new 
prosperity.  He cites four areas for economic 
growth:  commerce, facilitated by an improved road 
network; tourism, attracting visitors primarily from 
Kabul; agriculture and fish farms, utilizing the 
water supply of the Panjshir River; and mining of 
precious stones, especially emeralds.  Most economic 
activity is still stamped by traditional patterns of 
growing crops and raising livestock.  PRT projects, 
focused on infrastructure improvement and power 
generation, represent the single largest force of 
economic change in the province.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) This is the third message in a three-part 
series.  The first dealt with the security 
environment in the Panjshir; the second, with the 
political context.  See reftels. 
 
The New Prosperity 
------------------ 
 
¶3.  (U) In his speeches and talks, Governor Bahlul 
calls the U.S.-led assistance effort the engine of 
the new prosperity.  He has tried to rally the 
Panjshiris behind the PRT as the on-site 
ite 
representation of this effort.  He often points to 
the U.S. road projects as tangible proof of 
progress, both in terms of improving the 
infrastructure and employing Panjshiris.  Road 
construction represents the top development priority 
for the Governor, followed by power generation. 
 
¶4.  (U) Our contacts characterize Panjshir as a poor 
province, still suffering from years of conflict and 
isolation.  Obstacles to growth include outmoded 
agricultural practices, a paucity of arable land, a 
primitive road network, and a labor exodus.  But 
they also cite positive factors that could drive 
economic growth, such as a secure environment, the 
clean water of the Panjshir River, the natural 
beauty, agricultural and mineral wealth, the 
national prominence of the Massoud tomb, and 
proximity to the capital city of Kabul. 
 
¶5.  (U) The defeat of the Taliban in late 2001 led 
to several economic consequences in Panjshir.  Above 
all, it ended the besieged isolation of the valley 
and opened the way for labor migration to Kabul. 
Elders, in the village of Speaker Qanooni, told us 
that over half of the local workforce had moved to 
Kabul in search of jobs.  The opportunity for 
education also draws Panjshiris to the capital.  We 
have heard these workers would have stayed in 
Panjshir but could not find employment.  Financial 
support flows from Kabul back to families in 
Panjshir. 
 
The New Agenda 
-------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) In his meeting with the Charge and other 
diplomatic guests Jan. 21, Governor Bahlul outlined 
his economic agenda for the near and medium term. 
He cited four areas: 
 
Commerce:  According to the Governor the completion 
of the main valley road, now under construction 
funded by the U.S., will transform the province.  He 
said it would connect products with markets, both 
within the province and with the outside world. 
 
Tourism:  The Governor highlighted the many 
attractions of Panjshir:  pristine beauty, 
mountainous terrain, clean air and proximity to 
Kabul, the largest city in the country.  He also 
told the diplomats that the province needed 
international investment and expertise to develop 
the tourist sector. 
 
Agriculture and Fish Farms:  The Governor hoped to 
exploit the clean water of the Panjshir River to 
irrigate crops and establish fish farms, especially 
for trout.  In his view, Kabul, some 60 miles away, 
would represent the main market. 
 
Mining of precious stones:  The Panjshiri emerald 
deposits, according to the Governor, were second 
only to Brazil.  He also cited lapis mines, just 
north of Panjshir.  Profitable extraction required 
good roads, both to the south to Kabul and the north 
to Tajikistan. 
 
The Old Economy 
--------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Most resident Panjshiris, probably over 
eighty percent, are dependent upon the land for 
survival.  Aside from village retail bazaars and 
limited construction, security and service jobs, the 
vibrancy of the economy depends upon good crops and 
healthy animals. 
 
¶8.  (U) In a recent meeting, Wolesei Jirga member 
Registani called agriculture one of the five pillars 
of the provincial economy, and cited it first in 
importance.  He encouraged multiple smaller 
development projects.  Of particular concern to him 
was the wild river, the Panjshir, which is the 
life support of agriculture in the valley.  Because 
it is shallow and prone to flooding and meandering, 
he stressed water management needs. 
 
¶9.  (U) Given the paucity of arable land, tree crops 
of fruits and nuts are the most important 
horticultural or agronomic crops.  Poppies are not 
cultivated, according to contacts among farmers and 
officials.  Although ill-suited to expansive tracts, 
some terraced and valley land produces winter or 
summer wheat, corn and vegetables.  Rokha, Dara and 
Paryan districts are reported to be the predominant 
area for field crops.  Diseases and pests impact 
yields.  Few technical resources or control systems 
exist to minimize their damage. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (U) Currently, mulberries and apples are the 
predominant tree crops.  Khenj and Bazarak represent 
the highest orchard producing districts, followed by 
Dara.  Because of poverty, warfare, harsh winters 
and drought, much deforestation throughout the 
valley has contributed to desertification and 
erosion in many areas of the province. 
 
¶11.  (U) Reforestation and orchard rehabilitation 
are leading priorities of agriculture ministry 
officials in Panjshir.  They particularly want to 
increase almond and apricot production. 
 
¶12.  (U) Water management is another high priority. 
Panjshir Valley is graced with reasonably good water 
resources.  However, because of the shallow nature 
of the river, it varies in its course.  The result 
is flooding and subsequent loss of arable land or 
destruction of water management devices such as 
retaining walls, gabions and canals.  And when the 
river diverts, it may also result in an inadequate 
supply of water to previously served canals.  PRT 
irrigation canal projects continue to try to address 
the vagaries of the river. 
 
¶13.  (U) Livestock are important throughout the 
province, but especially in Paryan and Anabah 
districts.  Kuchis graze large sheep and goat flocks 
throughout the valley.  They leave the valley in 
fall for warmer locations in the south of 
Afghanistan.  Panjshiris, too, raise sheep and 
goats.  Goat flocks may be up to 500-600 animals and 
are quite winter hardy.  Most families owning cattle 
have only 3-4, used for plowing and, to a lesser 
extent, food.  Poultry is small scale only, with the 
average holding of 15-20 birds, mostly chickens, but 
also the occasional turkeys, ducks and geese. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14.  (U) U.S. projects are transforming Panjshir. 
Progress is tangible.  A new prosperity  in 
relative terms  is dawning.  For the PRT, there are 
several consequences:  First, the Panjshiris have 
embraced our presence  and, indeed, have called on 
us in droves to propose new projects.  Second, this 
this 
local acceptance has consolidated the secure 
operating environment for the PRT.  Third, the 
Governor has allied himself closely with the PRT, so 
that our success boosts his standing. 
 
NEUMANN