VZCZCXRO8104
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #1288 0551600
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241600Z FEB 06
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2030
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 001288 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR GM
SUBJECT: Hesse Local Election Update 
 
REF: a) 2005 Frankfurt 8530, b) 2005 Frankfurt 2147 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On March 26, Hesse will hold state-wide 
communal (local) elections in the most important test this year 
for Minister-President Roland Koch (CDU/Christian Democrats). 
The SPD/Social Democratic Party (which holds the most mayoral and 
local assembly seats in the state) is hoping to build on recent 
by-election victories.  Observers say small parties are most 
likely to post gains.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Political parties are gearing up for communal elections 
across Hesse in the most important electoral test for the 
government of Minister-President Koch prior to state elections in 
¶2008.  The CDU lost key mayoral and county elections in 2004 and 
2005 (in the mid-sized cities of Kassel, Marburg, Darmstadt, 
Hanau, Ruesselsheim, and Offenbach) -- while winning only two 
(Wiesbaden and Bad Homburg) -- but Koch remains the state's best- 
known politician and (as supporters and critics agree) "plays in 
a league of his own."  CDU insiders hope to gain from the 
popularity of new chancellor Angela Merkel.  Hesse CDU General 
Secretary Michael Boddenberg told a consulate representative that 
 
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state politics will play a relatively small role in the campaign 
-- except where the state has a say over controversial local 
projects such as the expansion of Frankfurt Airport and the 
privatization of university clinics in Marburg und Giessen 
(Boddenberg doesn't expect those controversies to damage the 
CDU).  Conservatives hope to win as many CDU-FDP/Free Democratic 
local majorities as possible and will campaign against the 
prospect of "Red-Red-Green" local governments (i.e., SPD, Greens, 
and Left Party) in the expectation that Hesse voters will react 
negatively to a left-wing constellation. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The SPD is the strongest party at the local level, with 
twice as many mayors as the CDU and controlling a majority of 
county and city councils in the state.  SPD State Chair Andrea 
Ypsilanti told us privately that her party's goal is to poll in 
first place across the state, particularly in the three largest 
cities of Frankfurt, Wiesbaden, and Kassel (where the SPD is now 
in government with the CDU in various coalitions).  Ypsilanti 
said she would make the election a referendum on Koch's record, 
particularly concerning education and the state's growing debt. 
Crumbling school buildings are a visible problem across the state 
(a reflection of poor local finances), which the opposition will 
try to pin on state education policy and growing debt.  For the 
SPD, a weak showing would have a direct impact on the choice of 
standard-bearer against Minister-President Koch.  Ypsilanti told 
us privately that she does not currently intend to run against 
Koch in 2008, indicating that the SPD may embrace a new candidate 
such as popular former Offenbach Lord Mayor Gerhard Grandke. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Smaller parties are convinced they will gain ground in 
the election.  At the FDP campaign convention in November, 
delegates glowed with optimism and set a goal of boosting the 
number of FDP local officials by 25 percent.  In Frankfurt, the 
FDP is keeping its distance from the CDU, betting that an 
independent profile will score better with voters.   Another 
projected winner is the Left Party (Linkspartei/WASG-PDS), which 
hopes to double its seats in Frankfurt and statewide.  The 
Greens, who did poorly in 2000, are convinced they can capture up 
to 20% of the vote in Frankfurt and become indispensable to a 
ruling coalition there. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The SPD and smaller opposition parties hope to 
make the mid-term election a vote of no-confidence against Koch's 
CDU administration.  Prospects are uncertain.  The state 
government and political parties keep their opinion polls 
confidential (no poll has been released since 2003).  The CDU's 
 
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poor showing in by-elections and in September 2005 national 
elections (where it trailed the SPD in Hesse) imply that Koch has 
an uphill battle.  With a largely negative campaign, observers 
concur that those most likely to gain are the FDP and the Left 
Party -- untarnished by current or recent participation in 
government.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
PASI