VZCZCXRO7955
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #1273/01 0551502
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 241502Z FEB 06
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2018
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001273 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR GM
SUBJECT: March 26 Elections in Rheinland-Pfalz/Baden-Wuerttemberg 
-- Campaign Update 
 
REF: A) 2005 Frankfurt 8530 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  With four weeks until state elections in 
Rheinland-Pfalz and Baden-Wuerttemberg, polls show both state 
governments in the lead.  In Rheinland-Pfalz, the SPD/FDP 
coalition (Social Democratic/Free Democratic) is banking on the 
popularity of long-time Minister-President Kurt Beck (SPD).  In 
Baden-Wuerttemberg, the CDU/FDP (Christian Democrat/Free 
Democratic) government of new Minister-President Guenther 
Oettinger is still leading in the polls despite CDU in-fighting 
as well as the largest public-sector strike in fourteen years. 
The Left Party (WASG) remains under the five-percent threshold to 
gain parliamentary representation in both states; its entry into 
either parliament would complicate coalition-building.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Baden-Wuerttemberg:  CDU/FDP Coalition 
Leading Despite Strike, In-Fighting 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) A recent poll (published February 10) gives the Baden- 
Wuerttemberg CDU/FDP government a solid lead: 
 
     CDU      49% 
     SPD      30% 
     FDP       8% 
     Greens    7% 
     Left/WASG 2% 
 
Minister-President (M-P) Oettinger's personal popularity rating, 
in contrast, remains low at 43 percent -- versus 37 percent for 
SPD competitor Ute Vogt -- evidence of his continued struggle to 
gain the mantle of Minister-President since entering office in 
April 2005.  The recent resignation of B-W Social Minister and 
longtime Oettinger confidante Andreas Renner (stemming from 
Renner's criticism of the Catholic Church over gay rights) 
highlights the ideological divide within the B-W CDU.  While M-P 
Oettinger and his allies seek to make the CDU attractive for 
young and urban voters, conservative supporters of former M-P 
Teufel are trying to stall the "modernization" process.  Critics 
see the state's recently introduced naturalization guidelines -- 
which purportedly ask many (largely Muslim) immigrants to reveal 
their ideological beliefs -- as a sop to conservative rural 
voters in the lead-up to the election. (NOTE: in a meeting with 
heads of consulates accredited to Baden-Wuerttemberg, State 
Secretary Rudolf Boehmler downplayed the affair and opined that 
 
SIPDIS 
the media had distorted an innocuous administrative guideline. 
END NOTE).  While the mood within the state CDU remains sour -- 
and the public sector strike (Septel) is bad news for M-P 
Oettinger -- the party continues to poll well in part based on 
the popularity of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) nationally. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The B-W SPD has failed to capitalize on the CDU's 
problems while M-P Oettinger's new day-care initiative has 
neutralized a key election issue for Social Democrats.  With a 
grand coalition in Berlin, the state campaign is focusing more on 
personalities than national policies.  At a party convention in 
Stuttgart on February 4, B-W SPD standard-bearer Ute Vogt 
attacked Oettinger for insensitivity on labor issues:  "A 
Minister-President who calls (DaimlerChrysler) job cuts a 
'fitness program' is not the right person for the job."  National 
SPD chairman Matthias Platzeck also attacked Oettinger's 
leadership qualities:  "The B-W CDU has sold its heart and people 
are turning their backs ... the trust is gone." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Rheinland-Pfalz: Ruling Coalition Still in the Lead 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Recent polls give Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) M-P Beck a clear 
but narrow lead: 
 
     SPD      42% 
     CDU      36% 
     FDP       8% 
     Greens    6% 
     Left/WASG 4% 
 
The R-P SPD is up three points since December 2005, while the CDU 
is struggling to hold its ground.  Job satisfaction ratings also 
indicate the SPD's advantage: more than half of the electorate 
(56 percent) favors a continuation of the SPD/FDP government; 
only 34 percent express dissatisfaction.  Beck remains popular, 
whereas CDU opponent Christoph Boehr has struggled (as in 2001) 
to gain public sympathy.  During a farewell call by the Consul 
 
FRANKFURT 00001273  002 OF 002 
 
 
General, Beck said he was confident of victory as long as the 
election remained focused on state and not national issues. 
(COMMENT: Merkel's high approval rating and the CDU's relatively 
strong showing in Rheinland-Pfalz in September 2005 suggest that 
the CDU remains a serious contender despite Beck's popularity. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Rheinland-Pfalz FDP's stated desire to continue its 
coalition with the Social Democrats is a major stumbling block 
for the CDU.  At its convention on February 4, the R-P FDP 
announced that it would remain in coalition with the SPD even if 
the CDU becomes the strongest party.  R-P FDP Chief Rainer 
Bruederle justified the decision by stating, "after 15 years of 
outstanding governance, everything speaks for a continuation of 
this successful cooperation."  At the same time, he rejected 
participation in a "traffic light" coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens). 
R-P Christian Democrats have profited little from Chancellor 
Merkel's popularity, reflecting in part Boehr's perceived 
inability to connect with voters. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) There are several wildcards that could spell trouble for 
state governments despite current polling figures.  If the Left 
Party/WASG enters either state parliament, it will dilute seat 
totals for other parties, opening the possibility that only a 
grand coalition would have a stable majority.  Federal Labor 
Minister Franz Muentefering's proposal to increase the retirement 
age to 67 is unpopular and could hurt SPD candidates (several SPD 
contacts lamented the announcement's timing).  The political 
right is a factor in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where some fear that the 
new immigration questionnaire and the Mohammed caricature 
controversy could fuel anti-foreigner sentiments and motivate 
hard-line CDU supporters to vote for far-right parties (along the 
lines of the 1992 and 1996 state elections).  END COMMENT. 
 
¶7. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
PASI