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UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000278 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
SSTATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SNAR PGOV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S RECENT UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE HIGHLIGHTED BY 
GOVERNMENT HYPE 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Since the beginning of the year, the local media have 
reported a number of killings of government security officials. 
The Tajik government often linked the murders to the Islamic 
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).  However, no credible links to the 
IMU have been proven.  Because of the reported up-tick in 
violence, the Tajik government has increased the number of 
border troops on alert and patrolling-law enforcement officials 
throughout the country.  Government sources tell Post's Senior 
Law Enforcement Advisor (SLEA) that President Rahmonov has met 
with security ministers three or four times since the beginning 
of January. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The press reported that members of the IMU attacked 
the Kairakum prison in Sughd Oblast to release a fellow member 
on January 25.   In the process, a prison official was killed. 
One of the attackers is reportedly the brother of the freed 
inmate.  Embassy sources said it is not certain the attackers 
and inmates belong to the IMU, but may be simply involved in 
criminal organizations.  Border troops were sent to Sughd Oblast 
to control Tajikistan's northern border with Kyrgyzstan and 
search for the attackers, who may come from the Tajik border 
town of Isfara. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Another recent high-profile murder was of the Head of 
the Military Institute, Hokimsho Hofizov, assassinated on 
January 27.  The press speculates that Oleg Kosolapov, a former 
colleague of Colonel Mahmud Khudoberdiyev, was involved in the 
murder.  (NOTE: Khudoberdiyev, in the opposition during the 
Tajik Civil War, is now exiled in Uzbekistan where he is widely 
believed to be supported by Uzbek security forces.  He was an 
ally of Hofizov, until Hofizov turned against him and sided with 
Tajikistan's ruling government.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶4. (SBU)  In addition, a source from the Ministry of Interior 
told SLEA that nine police officers have been killed in the line 
of duty so far this year.  The number includes border guards, 
officers killed by landmines, and officers killed in firefights 
with drug traffickers.  Two law-enforcement officials were 
recently murdered in Khorog.  The majority of reported incidents 
occurred along the Tajik-Afghan border. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  COMMENT:  The recent crimes may be the result of 
internal government strife, corruption, drug-related disputes, 
or IMU or other extremists' attacks - the kind of unfortunately 
normal criminal-political violence that occurs in any country 
like Tajikistan.  The Tajik government may be blaming the 
violence on the IMU as a way to divert attention from internal 
issues.  But it is important to note that this is a low level of 
violence for any country.  In a presidential election year, the 
emphasis on publicizing security problems could possibly be a 
government desire to show the people that Tajikistan is not yet 
completely secure and the need exists for continuity at the top 
to ensure stability.  Post considers the overall political 
situation in Tajikistan to be extremely stable.  Regardless of 
which theory eventually proves true, none of the violence is 
directed towards Western or, specifically,  American interests. 
END COMMENT. 
 
HOAGLAND