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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2516
INFO RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 8899
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 5784
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RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 2824
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RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 2006
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RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIOITY 0995

UNCLAS COLOMBO 00200 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM PREF CE
SUBJECT: PROMISE OF CEASE-FIRE TALKS STANCHES FLOW OF 
TAMILS FROM POTENTIAL BATTLEFIELDS 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 0142 
 
     ¶B. CHENNAI 0103 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Data recently released by the  United Nations High 
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Colombo shows 
that the flow of Tamils out of potential conflict areas in 
northern Sri Lanka was much higher than the Government of Sri 
Lanka (GSL) or the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) had reported. 
District administrators confirmed the larger numbers but 
indicated that the January 25 announcement of talks to 
strengthen the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA) had reduced the 
flow significantly.  The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE) inflate the numbers, while the central government and 
the Army minimize the number of displaced. Interviews with 
the displaced revealed the common themes of harassment by 
security forces. END SUMMARY 
 
I WISH I WAS IN VANNI 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) At the quarterly asylum and refugee meeting of the 
UNHCR on January 31 in Colombo, the senior protection officer 
presented an overview of displaced persons from the north and 
east.  The total displacement since the December escalation 
in violence was calculated to be 3,596 families, which 
include over 2,200 from Jaffna and surrounding areas. (Note: 
The UNHCR calculates four persons to a "family", 3,596 x 4 = 
14,384)  The Jaffna Government Agent, K. Ganesh, told poloff 
during a February 1 meeting in Colombo that some 1,470 
families had left Jaffna since the December escalation in 
hostilities, with the majority of families going to the LTTE 
controlled Vanni. 
 
ARMY DOWNPLAYS DISPLACEMENT 
-------------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) During a January 10 briefing by the SLA in Jaffna, 
the Army briefer had estimated only 300 families had left 
Jaffna, dismissing most of them as LTTE martyr families or 
otherwise sympathetic to the LTTE (Ref A). When asked on 
February 1 about the movement of Tamil families out of 
government-controlled areas, an Army spokesman said that the 
SLA did not keep accurate records on who left, but estimated 
some 1,500 families had left over the last two months. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) As reported by Chennai, (Ref B), 77 Sri Lankans had 
returned to India in just seven days in January.  The UNHCR 
reported that Sri Lankans arriving in India from Mannar and 
Jaffna districts, many of them having just been repatriated 
from India in the last three years, had increased that number 
to over 300 by the end of January. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) UNHCR in Colombo reported that field interviews 
with displaced persons in India and Sri Lanka reveal similar 
patterns: Tamils feel they face increasing harassment and 
hostilities at the hands of security forces, particularly 
during searches after an attack by the LTTE.  Many Jaffna 
Tamils who had been displaced to the Vanni during the 
conflict years lack an SLA-issued ID card and reported being 
harassed by the Army as LTTE supporters. Others from Jaffna 
claimed that the restrictions on fishing had made their 
livelihoods impossible. 
 
GIMME SHELTER 
-------------- 
¶6.  (SBU)  In Sri Lanka's restive Trincomalee District, over 
1,200 families have displaced themselves to local schools and 
temples since late December.  Unlike the north where Tamils 
face constant pressure from security forces, the communal 
tensions between Tamils, Muslims and Sinhalese, as well as 
the guns of the LTTE, SLA and breakaway Karuna faction of the 
LTTE, created a maelstrom of violence and uncertainty in 
Trincomalee before the announcement of the Geneva talks. 
 
Recent communal violence between Muslims and Tamils, as well 
as attacks by SLA and the Karuna faction around the town of 
Muttur, have displaced over 600 families within 
LTTE-controlled territory, according to UNHCR and local 
officials.  Curiously, the displaced in Trincomalee try to 
stay close to their houses often occupying them by day and 
sleeping in schools at night, which could indicate a fear of 
targeted violence by night and a fear of squatters if their 
houses are unoccupied by day. 
 
IT'S NOT A TRAGEDY, IT'S A PROPAGANDA TOOL 
------------------------------------------ 
¶7.  (SBU) Since the escalation of violence in December, the 
LTTE mouth-piece website Tamilnet.com has been raising fears 
of an upcoming conflict by painting an exaggerated picture of 
a mass exodus to the Tiger-controlled territory in the Vanni. 
 Conversely, the GSL has downplayed reports, often citing 
them as LTTE propaganda or under reporting the numbers. 
According to the International Committee for the Red Cross 
(ICRC), which monitors crossing points between government and 
LTTE controlled areas, there has been no surge in traffic 
crossing the checkpoints that would substantiate these 
reports.  In fact, when tensions are particularly high, 
people stay off the roads, preferring to hunker down in their 
houses rather than travel, according to the ICRC. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶8.  (SBU) Although there is no evidence of a mass exodus, 
3,596 families conservatively represents over 14,000 newly 
displaced people in the last 60 days and illustrates the 
precariousness of the Cease-Fire Agreement (CFA) and the 
popular fears that a resumption of hostilities could be 
imminent.  Deadly LTTE attacks on the military in the North 
and East have heightened security force suspicions of the 
local residents in those areas, resulting in increased cordon 
and search operations, which in turn alienate the public.  If 
this cycle continues (much will depend on the February 22-23 
talks in Geneva), further population dislocations could 
result. 
LUNSTEAD