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FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
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TAGS: KMDR JO
 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION ON AFTERMATH OF PALESTINIAN 
ELECTIONS AND IRAQ 
 
 
                        Summary 
 
-- Lead stories in all papers over the past two days, 
February 20-21, focus on Iraqi Shitte cleric Moqtada 
Al-Sadr's visit to Jordan as well as developments 
related to Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. 
 
  Editorial Commentary on Hamas Role in PA Governance 
 
-- "Hamas in the Moscow and Washington balances" 
 
Daily columnist Oraib Rantawi writes on the op-ed page 
of center-left, influential Arabic daily Al-Dustour 
(02/21):  "The decision-makers in Moscow have their 
own calculations that are different from Washington's, 
and the difference is only tactical and not strategic. 
Unlike, Washington, Moscow does not believe that 
boycott, animosity and militarization against Hamas is 
a realistic option.  Moscow opts for containment 
rather than exclusion, the American style.  What is 
noteworthy however is that the two countries seek the 
same outcome: shaving the sharp edges of Hamas' 
positions and forcing it to accept the three famous 
demands, namely recognition, halting violence and 
abiding by agreements..  Moscow, which is in search 
for international roles to play, is looking forward to 
enhancing its presence, be it through rejecting the 
war on Iraq, or mediating between Iran and the West, 
or cautiously handling the Syrian armament issue, or 
containing the Hamas movement.  But Washington, which 
has led the world solely since the end of the Cold 
War, knows very well how to close the doors and seal 
any windows before the Russian Bear.  Major world 
crises over the past few years have proven that 
Washington is the one with the final say.  Many have 
been wrong before about reading the limits of Russia's 
independence and many today seem to be going wrong in 
reading the same issue.  Yet, Russia knows very well 
the limitations of the margins for maneuvering and 
independent action, and knows what it can and cannot 
do.  Russia knows that its intersecting interests with 
Washington's interests carry more weight and 
importance than its differences and disputes with 
Washington, and thus, Russia is reading the regional 
and international issues with a purely Russian 
"tongue", that sooner than later is translated into 
English and a distinctly American accent.  This is not 
meant to give in to the Americanization of the world, 
and we are not suggesting placing all the eggs in the 
American basket..  But what we want to do here is to 
warn and caution of excessively waging on the Russian 
'independence'". 
 
 
-- "Measuring Hamas' popularity" 
 
Daily columnist Fahd Fanek writes on the back page of 
semi-official, influential Arabic daily Al-Rai 
(02/20):  "It is not true that the popularity of a 
party is measured by the number of seats it wins in 
honest elections, because the real measure is the 
percentage of votes it gets..  Hamas won 74 seats of 
the 132 seats of the Palestinian Legislative Council.. 
Does that mean that Hamas' popularity among the 
Palestinians has reached 60%?  The numbers indicate 
otherwise.  Hamas' share of votes reached 44%, but 
this percentage gave Hamas 56% of the seats, because 
the law that was tailored to serve Fatah ended up 
serving Hamas.  In return, Fatah won 42% of the votes 
but that only got it 34% of the seats..  Analyzing the 
numbers is not meant to undermine Hamas' victory in 
the Palestinian elections, rather to clarify that 
Hamas enjoy a small majority and that its popularity 
among the Palestinian people is only two percent more 
than Fatah's popularity.  It is noteworthy to mention 
here that Erdogan's party in the Turkish elections won 
only a third of the votes, but that gave it two thirds 
of the seats in parliamentary.  Here lies the genius 
of 'modern' election laws!" 
 
-- "Hamas and the experience of 'occupying two seats'" 
 
Daily columnist Oraib Rantawi writes on the op-ed page 
of center-left, influential Arabic daily Al-Dustour 
(02/20):  "It seems that the ecstasy and surprise of 
the victory have made Hamas forget one of the most 
important lessons learned from the Lebanese resistance 
and Hizbollah's experience:  the separation between 
authority and resistance . because combining between 
the two is going to harm both of them..  Hamas would 
be making a strategic mistake . if it decides - unlike 
its Lebanese counterpart - to enter the maze of 
government business, especially if it is not 
'politically' ready to do so.  We are already seeing 
how problems are piling up in the path of the Hamas 
government even before it is formed or sworn in..  We 
had thought that Hamas would do all it can to postpone 
the moment of confrontation with the embarrassing 
international requirements and demands, such as 
forming a 'unified national' government or a 
'technocrat' government, where Hamas would play the 
role of a guide and an observer.  But, giving the 
positions of the government premier and the parliament 
speaker to Hamas people places the world before a 
purely Hamas government, and puts Hamas face to face 
with two risks:  the first is the risk of announcing 
the authority as an enemy of Israel, with all the 
repercussions such an announcement would have, and the 
second is the risk of having to, under pressure of 
authority-related requirements, shift the rifle from 
the shoulder of resistance to the shoulder of security 
forces, thus re-producing Fatah's experience and 
authority..  Hamas ought to have found a different way 
that is closer to Hizbollah's approach.  But Hamas, 
amidst the throes of its victory, seems to have lost 
its way and has decided to risk occupying two seats." 
 
      Editorial Commentary on Iraq and Sunni role 
 
-- "Al-Sadr's visit" 
 
Columnist Jamil Nimri writes on the back-page of 
independent, centrist Arabic daily Al-Ghad (02/20): 
"With Moqtada Al-Sadr's visit to Amman, Jordan's 
relationship is now complete with all the Shiite Iraqi 
parties..  Jordan is now close and has good relations 
with all the Iraqi parties in a manner that is not 
available to any other neighboring country.  This is 
very important so that Jordan is able to play a better 
role at this time when the Sunnis are becoming free of 
the stigma of terrorist groups and are entering the 
political process..  Much more effort still awaits all 
those who are loyal to the safety, security and unity 
of Iraq and the Iraqis, and Jordan is one of those if 
not the foremost." 
HALE