This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ALMATY 000646 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (JMUDGE), DHL/PHD (CKUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 190356: N/A 
TAGS: POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: UPDATE ON MURDER OF OPPOSITION FIGURE 
 
REF: ALMATY 576 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  An estimated three to five thousand 
people, including the Ambassador, DCM and representatives 
from other missions and international organizations, 
attended the February 15 memorial services in Almaty for 
slain opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly.   No 
prominent GOK officials represented the government at the 
memorial.  After the service, opposition leaders delivered 
emotional speeches, many labeling the crime a "political 
assassination," and placing blame on the government.  While 
the services and a subsequent cemetery procession took 
place without incident in Almaty, a For Just Kazakhstan 
(FJK) activist reported to Emboff that several opposition 
sympathizers had been detained during February 15 
gatherings in other cities. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary (continued): At a February 14 press 
conference, FJK leaders denounced the crime as politically 
motivated, and announced the formation of a public 
commission to investigate the murder.  Several GOK 
officials, including a Deputy Minister of Interior, have 
down-played the possibility of a political motive for the 
murder. Meanwhile, the GOK has accepted an Embassy offer of 
FBI assistance in investigating the crime, a development 
which the GOK may make public as early as February 16. 
 
¶3.  (U) Summary (continued): As of February 15, the local 
wire service Interfax-Kazakhstan had provided the most 
extensive coverage, television news focused on facts with 
no commentary by public officials, and official and pro- 
government daily newspapers had not published any 
information about the murder. End Summary. 
 
Thousands Attend Sarsenbaiuly's Memorial 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) The February 15 memorial services in Almaty for 
slain opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly were well- 
organized and attended by some three to five thousand 
people, including the Ambassador, DCM and representatives 
from other diplomatic and international organizations, 
including the OSCE.  No prominent GOK officials represented 
the government at the memorial.  Following the viewing of 
the body, Sarsenbaiuly's followers gathered in the street 
near Almaty's Academy of Science, where the services took 
place, to hear fiery speeches from a "who's who" list of 
opposition leaders.  The speakers almost uniformly 
denounced Sarsenbaiuly's murder as a political 
assassination perpetrated by the government.  The emotional 
attendees, many of whom carried signs with slogans such as 
"The hands of the regime are bloody," and "It is impossible 
to intimidate us," then set off on foot to accompany the 
coffin to the distant cemetery. 
 
¶5. (U) Among the notable remarks delivered to the memorial 
crowd, opposition journalist Sergei Duvanov said that 
"everyone knows who is behind this political assassination. 
You are scared to name his name.  I am not. It is Mr. 
Ninety-one percent" (Note: an allusion to President 
Nazarbayev whose official tally in the December 2005 
election 91 percent.)  FJK activist Amirzhan Kosanov 
declared that "it is time to stop keeping silent.  People 
should start reacting to this political terror."  Duvanov 
called on the President to come back urgently from an 
overseas vacation and "explain what he is going to do. 
Just expressing his condolences is not enough." 
 
Opposition Supporters Detained? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kosanov called POL FSN at mid-day on February 15 
to confirm that the memorial service and funeral procession 
in Almaty had occurred without incident.  However, he 
reported, Sarsenbaiuly sympathizers in other cities, 
including Astana, Kokshetau and Taldykorgan, had been 
detained in the course of February 15 memorial gatherings 
and marches in those places.  Post has not been able to 
confirm Kosanov's allegations. 
 
"For a Just Kazakhstan" Press Conference 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) In a February 14 press conference, FJK leaders 
denounced Sarsenbaiuly's death as a "political 
assassination."  Former FJK presidential candidate 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay demanded swift action by the 
authorities, and called for Parliament to discuss the case. 
Several of Tuyakbay's associates made a connection between 
Sarsenbaiuly's death and those of Zamanbek Nurkadilov and 
political activist Yelena Nikitina's daughter claiming that 
all three were politically motivated, and aimed at 
intimidating the opposition. (Note: Nikitina's 16 year old 
daughter had worked on Tuyekbay's campaign.  She 
disappeared before the Dec. 5 election, and her body was 
found several weeks later.  A family member was arrested 
and charged with her murder. End Note.) 
 
¶8. (SBU) Asked by the press why Sarsenbaiuly had been 
targeted, FJK's Tolegen Zhukeyev responded that it was 
because Sarsenbaiuly had been a popular politician.  After 
the press conference, another FJK leader, Bulat Abilov, 
gave a different answer, explaining that both Nurkadilov 
and Sarsenbaiuly had been "very close" to Nazarbayev, and 
thus may have possessed compromising materials about the 
President.  Asked "why now?" Abilov suggested that 
"somebody in high office decided it was the right time 
because the president was on leave abroad." Speculating 
further, he added that "Nazarbayev was ready for dialogue 
with us.  And somebody decided to prevent the dialogue this 
way." FJK officials announced that the opposition had 
formed a public commission to investigate the murder. 
 
Deputy Interior Minister Offers Other Motives 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) A handful of GOK officials have spoken to the press 
about the case, in most cases to minimize the political 
angle of the murder. According to press reports, Deputy 
Interior Minister Kasymov termed "premature" attempts to 
label the murder "political."  Among other possible motives 
for the crime, Kasymov cited business and family affairs, 
as well as "murder in order to destabilize the situation in 
our country." Kasymov suggested that, in all likelihood, 
Sarsenbaiuly was killed by "someone close to him." If it 
was "someone from the outside," he said, "there would be 
bruises at least." 
 
Media Reaction: Muted So Far 
---------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) As of February 15, the local wire service Interfax- 
Kazakhstan had provided the most extensive coverage to the 
crime.  Television news focused on facts with no commentary 
by public officials, and official and pro-government daily 
newspapers had not published any information about the 
murder.  (Note:  Many Kazakhstani newspapers are centrist 
or progressive weeklies that are issued on Thursdays and 
Fridays, so print coverage may appear later).  Only 
Interfax published commentary made during the February 14 
press conference. 
 
¶11. (U) The February 13 primetime evening news on the three 
official and independent national broadcast networks 
relayed the facts as then known.  The next evening, only 
Channel 31, an independent national broadcaster, covered 
the case.  Three separate reports provided updates on the 
case plus reactions from prominent community leaders to the 
murder, and commentary from members of the opposition. 
 
GOK Accepts U.S. Offer of Assistance 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) In a February 14 conversation with Adilbek 
Dzhaksybekov, Head of the Presidential Administration, the 
Ambassador offered the government forensic and other U.S. 
assistance in investigating the crime.  On February 15, 
Foreign Minister Tokayev relayed the GOK's acceptance of 
the offer.  LEGATT, in consultation with FBI headquarters, 
will pursue this request.  He will speak with Ministry of 
Interior officials on February 16 to determine the scope of 
the GOK's needs, as well as USG resources to available to 
assist. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Comment.  Sarsenbaiuly's memorial service and 
funeral procession were solemn events and extremely well- 
attended.  The latter likely speaks both to Sarsenbaiuly's 
personal and political popularity and to a level of 
popularity among the politically active elements of Almaty. 
Despite the opposition's fiery rhetoric following the 
discovery of the crime, there is no evidence whatsoever 
that the authorities, let alone Nazarbayev, had anything to 
do with the murder.  Indeed, from our perspective, he would 
seem to have much to lose, and nothing to gain, from such a 
drastic move, which is very uncharacteristic of 
Kazakhstan's national and political culture. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Comment Cot'd:  Nonetheless, while other motives 
cannot be ruled out, at this point a political motivation 
seems to be the most plausible explanation.  The only 
problem is identifying a political force that would 
actually gain from the assassination.  From the Embassy's 
perspective, the GOK's acceptance of U.S. forensic 
assistance suggests that the government is determined to 
establish the credibility and seriousness of its murder 
investigation.  This will help counteract the initial 
impression in the international press, stimulated by 
understandably emotional (if not particularly logical) 
accusations by the opposition, that Nazarbayev and the 
government have something to do with this murder.  End 
Comment. 
 
ORDWAY