VZCZCXYZ0014
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0579/01 0572255
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 262255Z FEB 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8683
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4720
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 5913

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000579 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WASHINGTON-BEIJING-TAIPEI RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies 
continued to focus their coverage February 24 on the 
aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's announced proposal 
to abolish the National Unification Council (NUC) and 
National Unification Guidelines (NUG); a BBC interview with 
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou in London; and the February 28 
Incident of 1947.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its page 
two that quoted Chen as saying that he "Will Abolish the NUC 
and NUG Even [at the Risk of] Being Scolded by [U.S. 
President George W.] Bush." The pro-status quo "China 
Times," on the other hand, ran a banner headline on its 
front page that read: "Bian Will Have a Remedy for [His 
Planned Move to] Abolish the NUC and NUG; [He Will] Scrap 
the `Last No' But Keep the `Four No's.'"  The newspaper also 
carried an exclusive news story on its front page with the 
headline: "United States: Does Taiwan Still Need Our 
Protection?"  The pro-unification "United Daily News" topped 
its front-page news story on the topic with the headline: 
"To Release the Pressure on [Chen's Plan] to Abolish the NUC 
and NUG, [Mainland Affairs Council Chairman] Joseph Wu 
Passes a Message [via a Third Person to Beijing]: [Taiwan] 
Will Not Cross the Red Line." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times" 
editorial urged Taipei to be mentally prepared because 
Washington is sure to "teach Taiwan a lesson" for Chen's 
plan to abolish the NUC and NUG.  The article said "Chen may 
likely win himself the throne of the new godfather of Taiwan 
independence, and he may resolve his leadership crisis 
inside the DPP in the end.  But Taiwan, other than 
accomplishing Chen's personal political benefits, will have 
to pay an extraordinarily high price, and this price is sure 
to be paid by all the Taiwan people."  Yu Pen-li, assistant 
professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of 
American Studies, cautioned Taiwan in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" that Washington and Beijing may decide to sign 
a fourth communiqu during the meeting between U.S. 
President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao in 
April.  An editorial in the limited-circulated, pro- 
independence, English-language "Taiwan News," on the other 
hand, defended Chen by saying that the plan to abolish the 
NUC and NUG is a move to uphold Taiwan's current status. 
End summary. 
 
A) "How Is Washington Going to Teach Taiwan a Lesson?  -- 
The Probability That Taiwan Cannot Avoid Accepting" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (2/24): 
 
 
"Judging from President Chen's personal remarks to U.S. 
House Representative Rob Simmons the other day, the policy 
to abolish the NUC and NUG seem to be decided already.  Now 
the question that remains is the `timing' [of the 
government's] formal announcement of the decision. . In 
other words, as of now, the question regarding whether 
[Chen] will abolish the NUC and NUG is already [one that 
should be in] the past tense.  The question that should be 
asked now instead is what `consequences' Taiwan will have to 
bear for the abolition of the NUC and NUG. . 
 
"This kind of waiting and speculation is really very 
uncomfortable [for the Taiwan people]!  [We] all know that 
there will be harm [done to Taiwan], but we have no idea 
what kind of harm it will be.  After all, Washington has 
made it very clear to Taiwan that it does not wish to see 
the latter go along with its plan [to abolish the NUC and 
NUG].  It can be said that Washington has `said everything 
it could' [to Taiwan] by sending a secret envoy to 
personally persuade [Chen] and by repeated publicly calling 
on [Taiwan to refrain from carrying out the plan].  But Chen 
remains unmoved.  Now the ball is in Washington's court.  No 
one knows what Washington's next response will be.  Will it 
humiliate Taiwan again during the meeting between U.S. 
President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao in 
April, or postpone the talks and signing of the U.S.-Taiwan 
Free Trade Agreement?  Will it postpone the appointment of 
[the new] AIT director, or there will be other [penalties]? 
Perhaps it will turn out to be just a light penalty in the 
end, or it may be a severe one.  But no matter what, at 
least we can be sure that the United States will surely 
respond.  Taiwan had better be mentally prepared that things 
will not be over so easily. . 
 
"The point with regard to the abolition of the NUC and NUG 
is that it does not matter whether the NUC or NUG are `an 
absurd product made during an absurd era' or that whether 
the KMT has already `included Taiwan independence as a 
possible option' [for Taiwan people to decide on their 
future].  What really matters is whether Taiwan has violated 
its own pledge and whether it is exploring the possibility 
of crossing the red line of the policy.  It is unlikely that 
the United States is not aware that the NUC is a body that 
`exists in name only,' and the move to abolish the NUC and 
NUG will not create clear and imminent change to the 
substance of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.  But 
for the United States, Chen's move to `pick up a piece of 
trash that is already in the trash can and toss it [back in] 
again' (to quote [former DPP Chairman] Shih Ming-teh's 
phrase) is by no means aimed at the NUC and NUG themselves. 
Instead, [what Chen cares about is] the symbolic 
significance of such a move; namely, it is an indication of 
a string of changes that are about to follow. .  If 
Washington takes no action at all [towards Taiwan], it will 
mean that the Five No's overall falling part will just be a 
matter of time.  Should that happen, Beijing's will 
definitely enhance its power of backlashes, and both sides 
of the Taiwan Strait will again fall into a new wave of 
`uncertainty.'  Will the United States be happy to see such 
a development?  If Taiwan is the one that creates the change 
in the status quo, especially Washington has failed to stop 
Taiwan after President George W. Bush has personally sent an 
envoy to persuade Taiwan not to do it, how can the United 
States not get angry and take this opportunity to `teach 
Taiwan a lesson'! 
 
"No matter what the United States chooses to do in the end, 
it is expected that it will do damage to Taiwan's right and 
interests.  Anyone with an international sense is clearly 
aware of this result, but Chen's recent actions seemed to 
show that he did not care at all, and the DPP also seems 
very confident and fearless about what it is doing.  Yes, 
Chen may likely win himself the throne of the new godfather 
of Taiwan independence, and he may likely resolve his 
leadership crisis inside the DPP in the end.  But Taiwan, 
other than accomplishing Chen's personal political benefits, 
will have to pay an extraordinarily high price, and this 
price is sure to be paid jointly by all Taiwan people." 
 
B) "[Taiwan] Must Watch out for the [Sino-U.S.] Fourth 
Communiqu After It Abolishes the NUC and NUG" 
 
Yu Pen-li, assistant professor at Tamkang University's 
Graduate Institute of American Studies, commented in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] 
(2/24): 
 
". The failure of [U.S. National Security Council Senior 
Acting Director for Asian Affairs] Dennis Wilder's assigned 
trip to communicate with Taiwan will not be the end but the 
beginning of the controversy about [President Chen's] 
proposal to abolish the NUC and NUG.  It is imaginable that 
the relevant U.S. government agencies in Washington will 
upgrade its level in handling the cross-Strait issues. . 
The biggest nightmare for the United States is having 
tensions rise across the Taiwan Strait because both sides 
misread the situation, and as a result, the cross-Strait 
situation gets out of control, forcing Washington to advance 
[the time to sit down] with Beijing and have a showdown over 
the Taiwan issue in an attempt to prevent being dragged into 
war. 
 
"In order to avoid the risks of being dragged into war and 
to reduce tensions [across the Taiwan Strait], Washington 
will only strengthen communication with Beijing rather than 
resisting it.  Beijing will also increase its pressure on 
Washington and not just bluff.  As maintaining peace and 
stability in the Taiwan Strait closely concerns Washington's 
and Beijing's interests, Washington's joining hands with 
Beijing to restrain Taipei will then be the greatest test 
for the Taiwan government and its people. 
 
". Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States 
in April is thus of essential importance.  Will Washington 
and Beijing, out of their joint needs to restrain the Taiwan 
authorities' marginal policy, sign a fourth communiqu to 
put into words their opposition to Taiwan independence?  . 
This is something that Taiwan should pay more attention to. 
." 
 
C) "Abolishing NUG Upholds Taiwan's Current Status" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] said in an editorial (2/24): 
 
"We urge all political actors, Taiwan citizens and foreign 
observers to grasp the key point that the proposal by 
President Chen Shui-bian to formally abolish the long- 
dormant NUC and its NUG is a move that will preserve 
Taiwan's current status, not `unilaterally alter' the status 
quo in the Taiwan Strait. .  We believe that President Chen 
can make this issue clearer by reaffirming that all options 
for the future are open based on the reality that Taiwan is 
now an independent and self-governing democratic state and 
that any changes in Taiwan's current status need to be 
ratified by national referendum of our citizens, as already 
stipulated in our Constitution. 
 
"With a neutral government policy and a process of 
Constitutional reform that requires three-fourths 
Legislative approval and ratification by half of the 
eligible voters in a national referendum, everyone can feel 
assured that any changes in Taiwan's status will require an 
overwhelming consensus and will no longer be vulnerable to 
unilateral or caviler dictation by any political party or 
individual.  Eliminating the NUC and NUG will bolster our 
current status, not change it." 
 
KEEGAN