VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0536/01 0530005
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 220005Z FEB 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8620
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4695
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 5890

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000536 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies 
continued February 18-21 to report on the aftermath of 
President Chen Shui-bian's Lunar New Year's Day proposal to 
abolish the National Unification Council, and the 
controversy sparked by a KMT advertisement Tuesday in which 
(for the first time) the party included Taiwan independence 
as a possible option for the Taiwan people to choose for 
their future.  Coverage also focused on the U.S. arms 
procurements, the computer war games related to the Hankuang 
Exercise for 2006, and a new research report released Sunday 
regarding the February 28 Incident of 1947.  The pro-status 
quo "China Times" ran an exclusive interview with an 
unidentified senior Bush administration official on its 
front page with the headline: "U.S. Official Warns Bian: 
[He] Will Have to Bear All the Consequences If [He Insists 
on] Abolishing the National Unification Council (NUC) and 
National Unification Guidelines (NUG)."  The newspaper also 
spent two thirds of its second page and the entire third 
page running excerpts of the interview and relevant news 
stories on Chen's plan to abolish the NUC and NUG.  Taiwan's 
biggest daily, the pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
appeared to make an effort to refute the "China Times" 
interview by running a banner headline on its second page 
February 19 that read: [Taiwan] Government Official: 
Abolition of NUC and NUG Is Aimed at Maintaining the Status 
quo [across the Taiwan Strait]". 
 
Following the publication of the results of a "Liberty 
Times" survey last Thursday, both the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" and pro-status quo "China Times" 
published their own separate opinion surveys February 18 and 
February 20 (respectively) with regard to President Chen's 
Lunar New Year's Day's proposal to abolish the NUC and NUG. 
The "United Daily News" survey showed that 35 percent of 
those polled oppose Chen's proposal while 18 percent said 
they supported it.  The "China Times" survey also showed 
that 32 percent of the respondents said they were against 
Chen's proposal while 21 percent said they supported it. 
The "United Daily News" also carried a news story on its 
page four February 19 with the headline: "To Resolve the 
Controversy over [Chen's Proposal] to Abolish NUC and NUG, 
Bian Plans to Reiterate the Four No's Pledge Without the 
Last `No."' 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, editorials of 
the "Liberty Times" and the two limited-circulated, pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" and "Taiwan 
News" all criticized KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's discourse 
on cross-Strait relations, saying Ma is moving further away 
from mainstream Taiwan public opinion.  An editorial in 
"China Times" pointed out that along with Chen's plan to 
abolish NUC and NUG and the DPP's plan to present its 
version of the new constitution, the DPP has also worked out 
a timetable for an overall rescission of [Chen's] `Five 
No's' pledge.  A separate "China Times" commentary said 
Washington will no longer tolerate Chen's behavior.  An 
editorial in the limited-circulated, conservative, pro- 
unification, English-language "China Post" urged Washington 
to directly stop Chen from abolishing the NUC and NUG; 
according to the paper, their abolition would mark "the 
beginning of Taiwan's disintegration and fall."  End 
summary. 
 
A) "Ma Ying-jeou Moving Further Away from Taiwan's 
Mainstream Public Views" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] 
editorialized (2/20): 
 
". The status quo of Taiwan today is that it is a nation 
whose sovereignty is independent outside the People's 
Republic of China, a fact that not even the Beijing 
authorities can deny.  The fact that many Taiwan people, 
when polled, chose the option of maintaining the status quo 
showed that they expected to see Taiwan's sovereignty remain 
independent outside the PRC.  On the other hand, however, it 
was also a choice made in the face of China's military 
threats [against the island].  Based on the cross-references 
of various opinion surveys [conducted in Taiwan], a majority 
of Taiwan people, if compelled to make a choice, would 
bravely choose the position of Taiwan being an independent 
sovereign state. . 
 
"In other words, for [KMT Chairman] Ma Ying-jeou, the so- 
called `maintaining the status quo' is nothing but a 
transitional period to the `ultimate unification' [between 
Taiwan and China].  Such a position, if viewed from a long- 
term perspective, will definitely destroy the status quo of 
 
Taiwan's independent sovereignty.  Thus, the `maintaining of 
the status quo' as repeatedly claimed by Ma is nothing but 
another name used to block Taiwan from becoming a normal 
country. 
 
"The prior three presidential elections in Taiwan have 
proved that Taiwan people have absolutely despised foreign 
regimes.  Ma, who aspires to win support of most Taiwan 
people but is constantly [doing things] to jeopardize the 
status quo Taiwan's sovereignty, is in reality moving 
further away from Taiwan's mainstream public views." 
 
B) "Ma Takes a Winning Approach" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] wrote in an editorial (2/18): 
 
". Ma's recent olive branch to pan-green-cam supporters in 
the form of a `Liberty Times' advertisement on Wednesday 
marked a turning point:  The ad's concession to entrenched 
support for self-determination and its dismissal of coercion 
as a tool for unification will likely turn out to be one of 
the most important local political developments in recent 
years.  .  Taiwanese can be expected to back Ma for the next 
presidency if he continues with this approach.  It may yet 
turn out to be the biggest gift Taiwan could hope for. . 
 
"Let us assume for the moment that Ma is elected president - 
and that his apparent goodwill to the pan-green voter is 
sincere.  If his stint in office is successful, his KMT 
successor will need to emulate him and defend Taiwanese self- 
determination.  Otherwise, a humbled and reconfigured DPP 
will probably replace him, either in four years or eight. 
Any of these options would surely make supporters of 
Taiwanese self-determination of all colors shiver with 
pleasure." 
 
C) "Ma's Future Choice Between Realism and Opportunism" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] said in an editorial (2/20): 
 
". From the perspective of Taiwan's democratic 
consolidation, for a century-old KMT to respect Taiwan's 
people's right to decide its own fate and its future 
relationship with China is a great leap forward compared to 
its long-time habit of imposing its pro-unification doctrine 
on our people with scant regard for the will of the public. 
However, whether or not Ma is sincere in respecting the 
freedom of choice of local citizens remains in doubt.  . 
 
"As maintaining the status quo of Taiwan as an independent 
and democratic country has become the mainstream value in 
Taiwan, it is understandable that Ma would test the water by 
tossing out a concept that would, at least on the surface, 
seem to respect local citizen's right of free choice.  But 
is Ma doing these really for the national interests of 
Taiwan?  Can he encounter successfully the hard-core pro- 
unification forces from the pan-blue camp, including the old- 
guard led by Lien Chan?  Or is Ma simply an opportunist 
politician who only has his eyes on stealing away DPP 
voters? . If Ma wishes to show his qualifications to be 
president, he should lead the KMT to respect this mainstream 
democratic principle." 
 
D) "We Can Do Nothing But Simply Watch Taiwan Bear the 
Consequences" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (2/20): 
 
"It looks like President Chen and the DPP are really ready 
to have a clash with his `Five No's' pledge!  Despite the 
overwhelming pressure from Washington, Chen seems completely 
unwavering.  Presidential Office Secretary-General Mark Chen 
has made it very clear that President Chen `hopes' that the 
proposal to abolish the National Unification Council and 
National Unification Guidelines `would be clearly dealt with 
by the end of February.' . 
 
"On the other hand, the DPP is taking the advantage of this 
opportunity to present its version of Taiwan's new 
constitution.  The DPP also made it very clear that it will 
set no restrictions on any issues [concerning the new 
constitution], namely, [it will touch on issues] including 
[Taiwan's] national flag, national title and its territory. 
If the `proposal to abolish National Unification Council and 
National Unification Guidelines' directly scraps the last 
`No' in Chen `Five No's' pledge, the [DPP's] planned new 
constitution which will touch on [Taiwan's] territory and 
national title will be a direct move to tear down the 
remaining `Four No's'.  Even though the DPP's version of 
Taiwan's new constitution will not come out until June, it 
seems that it has already had a `conclusion;' after all, how 
would it be called the DPP's `new constitution' if it fails 
to talks about [Taiwan's] territory and national title?   In 
other words, [it is evident that the DPP] already worked out 
a timetable for overall rescission of [Chen's] `Five No's' 
pledge. . 
 
"The core issue is actually very clear; namely, it has never 
been a logical question as to `who is changing the status 
quo across the Taiwan Strait' but a question of `who is 
defining the status quo'.  And there is already an answer to 
the question.  The United States has said very clearly 
earlier that it is Uncle Sam, not Beijing or Taipei, who is 
in the lead of defining the cross-Strait status quo.  This 
is the reason why President Chen said last year that `there 
is no way that [he] can succeed in pushing for' Taiwan 
independence and writing a new constitution. 
 
"By the same token, perhaps the impact created by Chen's 
insistence on `abolishing the National Unification Council' 
will not be the highlighting of whether Beijing has 
unilaterally altered the status quo but the fact that Chen 
has attempted to snatch the `right to define [the cross- 
Strait status quo].'  . While the United States is extremely 
busy in handling [problems] in Iraq, Iran and North Korea, 
will it be very polite to Taiwan, which came out trying to 
grasp the right to define the `cross-Strait status quo'? ." 
 
E) "The United States Remains Firm and Resolute; What Will 
Be A-Bian's Next Step?" 
 
Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the "Washington 
Outlook" column of the pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 400,000] (2/18): 
 
". It is not difficult to tell from the words of the U.S. 
official interviewed [by this journalist] that the United 
States has reached the last critical moment that it will no 
longer tolerate or appease A-bian.  Washington's strategy 
[toward Chen] is thinly veiled toughness, mild and severe at 
the same time.  The mild part is that Washington did not 
forget to show friendship and goodwill to Taiwan.  But the 
severe part is that when it comes to policy, Washington 
offers absolutely no room for negotiation, because if it 
yields again, it will jeopardize the U.S. interests, a 
development that Washington can by no means accept.  As a 
result, A-bian will have to make his policy match that of 
the United States and adopt measures to mend the rifts and 
gaps between his and the U.S. policies. ." 
 
F) "Can U.S. Rein in Chen?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post" [circulation: 30,000] said in an editorial (2/21): 
 
"President Chen Shui-bian appears determined to go ahead 
with his plan to scrap the dormant 1991 National Unification 
Council despite repeated U.S. warnings against it.  His 
administration and the ruling DPP are trying everything to 
justify Chen's move, which is an outright breach of trust of 
the people and the U.S.  Washington is upset for being 
entangled in such an unexpected, annoying and unnecessary 
spin with a protg, when crisis in Iraq, Iran, North Korea 
and the Middle East demand its full attention.  The U.S. 
deserves this, as it has left Taiwan's pro-independence 
leader and his supporters believe there is room for them to 
fool around. 
 
"No wonder separatism has been on the rise in recent years; 
and the possibility of a cross-strait war has drastically 
increased.  U.S. ambiguity on ideas of unification and 
independence is the main culprit.  The two conflicting 
options were put forward by the Chen-DPP government after it 
assumed power in 2000. . 
 
"The U.S.-defined status quo, a compromise for peace between 
Washington and Beijing, does not allow Taiwan's separation 
n 
from China or reunification with the mainland by force. 
Taiwan's people have accepted it.  Chen's latest plan to 
scrap the last `No' in his `Five Nos' pledge is but a gambit 
for domestic consumption to rescue his crumbling authority. 
Nip his ploy forthrightly and stop it from becoming a 
mockery of the U.S. and the beginning of Taiwan's 
disintegration and fall.  Only the U.S. can do this." 
 
KEEGAN