This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLISH PROTEST PARTIES FACE CHALLENGES IN BACKING 
GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A. 2005 WARSAW 4020 
 
     ¶B. 2005 WARSAW 4050 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Since coalition talks with Civic Platform (PO) fell 
apart in late October, the minority Law and Justice (PiS) 
government has relied on the support of two protest parties 
in parliament: Andrzej Lepper's populist, agrarian Self 
Defense (SO) and the extreme right-wing League of Polish 
Families (LPR), headed by Roman Giertych. SO and LPR insiders 
challenge the widely-held view that PiS is absorbing their 
electorates and relegating their charismatic leaders to 
irrelevance.  They believe that Lepper and Giertych have a 
loyal following that will not desert them, and that the 
favors they gain in exchange for their support of PiS are 
aiding SO's and LPR's long-term goals.  Current polls, 
however, indicate a dramatic drop in support for these 
parties in the first months of the new government, suggesting 
that -- to a large degree, and at least for now -- PiS is 
succeeding in its strategy. End Summary. 
 
Self Defense: Moving into the Mainstream? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Lepper has come a long way since his road blockades 
and manure slingings of the early 1990s. In the September 
2005 elections his party again won third place and over 11 
percent of the popular vote.  Lepper's individual popularity 
as a presidential candidate rose from three percent of the 
vote in 2000 to fifteen percent in 2005.  He has so far 
behaved himself since being reappointed Deputy Speaker of the 
Sejm, a position from which he was recalled in 2001 after 
only five weeks, for employing unsubstantiated, slanderous 
rhetoric to accuse other political leaders of corruption. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Both Lepper and Prime Minister Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz deny publicly that there have been any 
discussions of a formal coalition, although Lepper confidant 
and SO European deputy Ryszard Czarnecki told Poloff that SO 
would be willing to form a coalition with PiS if the 
conditions were right.  (Lepper has since publicly reaffirmed 
SO's readiness to join the government.) Czarnecki argued that 
SO faces a "win-win" situation here.  If a coalition with PiS 
is not realized, Czarnecki said, SO would stay in the 
opposition and support PiS initiatives when they correspond 
with SO's own program.  In the unlikely event that PO and PiS 
form a coalition, SO would then gladly lead the hard 
opposition and, Czarnecki thinks, be well positioned for the 
next elections. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Czarnecki acknowledged observations that PiS is 
trying to absorb SO support in its effort to build PiS into 
the leading conservative party (which PiS members readily 
admit privately - Ref A).  Czarnecki said SO leaders will 
make an effort to oppose PiS more openly in order to draw 
distinctions between SO's and PiS's priorities.  Czarnecki 
said Lepper will try to steer his party towards the center as 
he believes PiS's policies will veer toward the right and 
alienate many. However, Lepper must use a "two-handed 
approach" in which he shows his long-term support base that 
he is still committed to protecting Polish small farmers 
while at the same time developing his "social liberalism" 
(Ref B).  Czarnecki said that he does not fear PiS 
encroachment because he believes that Lepper is a charismatic 
leader with a loyal support base.  He claimed polls that 
suggest his party's base is shifting towards PiS (SO's 
support has dropped to seven percent in the most recent 
survey) are "inaccurate." 
 
LPR: Keeping Poland "Polish" 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Roman Giertych emphasized to Poloff during a recent 
meeting that he is not discouraged by his party's drop in the 
polls, and that he intends to be in Polish politics for the 
long haul.  LPR had a lackluster showing last September 
(winning less than eight percent of the vote, half its 
percentage in 2004 EU parliamentary elections). Only 34, 
Giertych was too young to run for president (his father 
Maciej was LPR's candidate instead) and 10 of LPR's 34 Sejm 
deputies are under age 30.  LPR relied heavily on its 
youthful "shock troops," the quasi-fascist "All-Poland Youth" 
(an organization that Giertych revived and led himself from 
1989 to 1994), in the 2005 election, but this may have hurt 
its standing among some older LPR voters, many of whom 
defected to PiS. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Giertych told Poloff that LPR will under no 
circumstances form a coalition with PiS and will only support 
PiS on aspects of the government's agenda which are in accord 
with LPR's own program and long-term goals.  Giertych told us 
he is most concerned with the promotion of pro-family 
legislation (such as GOP payments to women each time they 
give birth) and the opposition of further EU integration. 
Giertych also suggested that he would use his newly-won 
position as chair of the parliamentary special services 
committee (compensation for LPR support for formation of the 
PiS government) to prevent the immigration to Poland of 
"potentially divisive minorities."  When asked if he was 
concerned about PiS's wooing of LPR's traditional electorate, 
Giertych maintained that he is not worried about the 
short-term trends (recent polls place support for LPR well 
below the five-percent threshold for parliamentary 
representation.) Giertych predicted that his party will be 
even stronger in a year or two when, he predicts, voters will 
be disillusioned with PiS's performance and will then turn to 
LPR.  Giertych's split with the conservative Catholic Radio 
Maryja also hurt his party - to the benefit of PiS, putting 
into question his optimistic projections. 
 
Foreign Policy Perspectives 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) LPR and SO alike maintain to us that they are 
pro-American (despite sometimes very harsh anti-U.S. rhetoric 
over Iraq) and range from skeptical to openly hostile towards 
EU integration. Czarnecki claimed that, while initially 
radically anti-EU, Self-Defense is now more pro-EU since many 
of Poland's farmers benefit greatly from the EU agricultural 
payments.  Rather than opposing the EU, Czarnecki said, SO 
will now focus its efforts on the strong defense of Polish 
national interests in the context of further EU integration. 
Giertych recently criticized PM Marcinkiewicz's "euphoric 
victory" at the EU budget negotiations and opposes the new 
GOP's engagement with the EU. Neither party includes foreign 
policy among its top priorities, fortunately, and their 
influence on the new government so far has been minimal (as 
seen in the GOP's decision to extend the Polish deployment in 
Iraq, for example, a move opposed by both SO and LPR). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Self-Defense and LPR both enjoy unexpected attention 
given PiS's shortfall of votes in parliament (the support of 
at least one, but usually both parties, is needed to reach a 
majority), but their position has yet to translate into 
concrete benefits for their parties.  Politically, their 
cooperation with PiS appears to have cost them support with 
voters, many of whom have shifted their allegiances to the 
governing party.  For now, SO and LPR must manage to strike a 
balance between demonstrating independence (as when they 
opposed two GOP initiatives in late December) and provoking 
PiS to reconsider a coalition with PO or early elections 
(which, according to current polls, could be disastrous for 
those weakened parties). Over the longer term, SO and LPR 
leaders have to hope for either an eventual coalition offer 
from PiS (which PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski hinted at 
January 10) or a collapse in public support for the PiS 
government that could benefit their radical parties. 
ASHE