This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000129 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS, PRESIDENT 
CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S NEW YEAR'S DAY SPEECH 
 
¶1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taiwan dailies focused 
their coverage January 13 on the Legislative Yuan session 
Thursday, in which the central government's general budget 
for fiscal 2006 was reviewed.  The pro-independence "Liberty 
Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, carried an exclusive news 
story on its page two that said: "National Security Council 
Secretary-General Chiou I-jen Will Stay on [His Current 
 
SIPDIS 
Position] to Carry out [the Policies Stated] in Bian's [New 
Year's Day] Address."  The pro-unification "United Daily 
News," on the other hand, carried a news story on its page 
thirteen, quoting TECRO Chief David Lee as saying "Bian's 
New Year's Day Speech `Willingly Follows' the United States' 
[Opinion]."  The sub-headline added: "Lee Refuses to Further 
Reveal the Contents of Intense U.S.-Taiwan Communication 
[over Chen's Speech], Emphasizing that `I [i.e. Lee] Will 
Take the Responsibility' If Taiwan Leader Is Again 
Criticized During the Bush-Hu Meeting This Spring." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials, a "Liberty Times" editorial 
discussed a recent report by the U.S. Congressional Research 
Service on China's navy modernization, strongly urging the 
government to go ahead with the policies it stated in Chen's 
New Year's Day address and purchase advanced weapons to 
strengthen Taiwan's defense capabilities.  A "United Daily 
News" editorial, on the other hand, analyzed in details the 
United States' interpretations of Chen's New Year Day's 
speech by concluding firmly that Chen's speech has sabotaged 
the mutual trust foundation between Washington and Taipei. 
An editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative, pro- 
unification, English-language "China Post" also criticized 
Chen's two-faced tactics as revealed in his New Year's Day 
speech, saying it has "provoked a strong backlash in 
Washington."  End summary. 
 
¶1. Cross-Strait Relations 
 
"How Can Taiwan Expects Its Allies' Aid if It Does Not Have 
to the Determination to Defend Itself" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Time" [circulation: 600,000] 
editorialized (1/13): 
 
"The [recently-released] U.S. Congressional Research Service 
report gave a profound analysis of the progress of China's 
navy modernization and its impact on the United States and 
cross-Strait situation.  [The report] uncovered China's 
ambitions to proactively develop submarine capabilities, 
which is something that the world should not overlook. 
China's rising is by no means the `peaceful rising' as 
claimed by itself but an expansion of its hegemony, and it 
will definitely generate a grave impact on regional peace 
and stability. . 
 
"In other words, this [U.S. congressional] report not only 
sent a warning signal to American people, but the Taiwan 
people should also learn from it [a lesson] that the climate 
the island is facing now is getting more and more thorny. 
If the opposition parties continue to block the [U.S.] arms 
procurement bill, hindering Taiwan from timely strengthening 
its defense capabilities, it will be too late for Taiwan to 
cope with the crisis when it breaks out suddenly, and it 
will surely be a disaster for Taiwan. . 
 
"Taiwan's leaders should thus adopt the `proactive 
management' approach toward cross-Strait economics and 
trade, make plans to purchased advanced weapons to 
strengthen the island's defense capabilities, and push for 
[Taiwan's] constitutional revisions to legitimize Taiwan's 
sovereignty.  [This newspaper] believes a majority of Taiwan 
people will stand firmly with the government to confront 
this evil enemy [i.e. China]." 
 
¶2. President Chen Shui-bian's New Year's Day Speech 
 
A) "Which Is Genuine, the [New Year's Day] Speech on the 
Table, or the Pledge under the Table?" 
 
The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 
400,000] commented in an editorial (1/13): 
 
"The U.S. State Department responded immediately after 
President Chen Shui-bian delivered his New Year's Day speech 
by repeating [Chen's] `Four No's' [pledge] verbatim and 
saying that it hopes Chen will stick to his pledge. ... 
 
"Both the State Department's statement and [TECRO Chief] 
David Lee's remarks [on Chen's speech] were composed and 
restrained.  People who are not familiar with diplomatic 
rhetoric may not necessarily understand the undertone.  A 
State Department official thus accepted an interview with 
this newspaper's Washington correspondent in the form of 
`anonymity' and stated completely the United States' 
position and views.  The fact that Washington chose to state 
[its position] clearly this time was an evident move to 
prevent anyone from dodging its question or twisting its 
original meaning. 
 
"But the choice of words of this [unnamed] State Department 
official remained discreet, as any diplomat should do.  But 
if we try to put his remarks in layman's words, his 
statements can be interpreted by tracking the following 
points: 
 
"First, `The U.S. interests lie in meeting the 
predictability and stability required by the 23 million 
Taiwan people require.'  The interpretation is: Chen has 
been flip-flopping in terms of his cross-Strait policy; he 
especially loves to curry favor with the deep-green voters 
before the election and then swung back to the middle 
[route] after the elections.  Also, his policies tend to 
change in accordance with different people, matters and 
timing.  Chen's New Year's Day address this year was no 
exception.  Washington is constantly confused by such 
drastic alternations, so it said very frankly that the 
Taipei authorities must be constant, stable and predictable 
with regard to its policies. 
 
"Second, "The Taiwan authorities have repeatedly guaranteed 
to us [i.e. Washington] that the New Year's Day speech does 
not change any of its existing policies.  As a result, it 
will be a matter of rhetoric as long as [Taiwan's] policy 
remains unchanged.'  The interpretation is: Washington 
understands that Chen had to put Taiwan's domestic situation 
into consideration when he delivered his New Year's Day 
speech, so it attributed it as a `rhetoric' question.  Even 
though Washington can understand [Chen's needs], it pays 
more attention to [Chen's] pledge of `unchanged policy' 
under the table. . 
 
"Third, "From the United States' perspective, any sabotage, 
hindrance, or refusal to (cross-Strait) contact is not in 
the United States' interests."  The interpretation is: 
Washington cannot accept it if `proactive management, 
effective opening' is a move to back away from the 
developments of cross-Strait relations.  The United States 
also believes that [Taiwan] should not stop communicating 
[with Beijing] using excuses such as existing obstruction or 
setbacks.  Washington believes that the only way to cope 
with cross-Strait impasse is to `continue working out 
resolutions.' 
 
"Four, "We [i.e. Washington] are interesting in [both sides 
of the Taiwan Strait] moving towards stability and 
prosperity.  This is a strategic goal.  We also hope our 
friends in Taipei to tell use which tactics they will use to 
achieve this goal."  The interpretation is: it will not be 
viable for Taipei to pledge under the table that its `policy 
remains unchanged;' [Taipei] needs to put words into real 
action.  . 
 
"The picture of Washington-Taipei-Beijing relations drawn by 
the United States seems to deviate greatly from the spirit 
inherent in Chen's New Year's Day speech; it also differed 
greatly from National Security Council Secretary-General 
Chiou I-jen's interpretation [of the U.S. attitude] 
afterwards.  Perhaps this is the key to David Lee's remarks 
that `[we cannot say that] both sides have reached a 
consensus over [Chen's] speech.'  Even though Washington now 
recognizes that the Taipei authorities have made pledge 
about its `unchanged policy' and that what [Chen's] New 
Year's Day speech was merely a kind of `rhetoric,' the 
United States evidently wants to `wait and see' the words 
and action of the Taipei authorities.  Such a development 
has sabotaged the foundation of mutual trust that Taiwan's 
interaction with the United States is based on, and this is 
another grave loss created by [Chen's] New Year's Day 
speech. ." 
 
B) "Washington Watching What Chen Will Do Next" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post" [circulation: 30,000] said in an editorial (1/13): 
 
"Anyone who has paid attention to the course of recent 
political events may be attracted by the two-faced tactics 
President Chen Shui-bian and his senior aides are playing in 
managing the aftermath of his controversial New Year address 
that has provoked a strong backlash in Washington. . 
 
"By retreating to the political left, Chen has a near-term 
aim to achieve. He hopes that his goodwill can win more 
votes for his former Presidential Secretary General Yu Shyi- 
kun, who is running in the ruling party's leadership 
election schedule for the coming Sunday.  If Yu, a loyal 
ally to Chen, wins the chairmanship, it would help him to 
prolong his influence with the party machine at a time when 
his presidential authority is fading away with the approach 
of his departure from office. 
 
Perhaps he will be able to win the Sunday poll.  But the 
sailing ahead might not be smooth for him.  U.S. suspicion 
of him has not eased because of his repeated policy 
assurances.  The Bush administration is still watching 
closely to see what Chen will do next.  Beijing, for its 
part, has just warned that the tension in the Taiwan Strait 
is resurging, referring to the remarks he made on New Year's 
Day." 
 
PAAL