This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS TAIPEI 000104 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S NEW 
YEAR'S DAY SPEECH 
 
¶1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taiwan dailies shifted 
the focus of their coverage back to local scandals and local 
political issues January 12, such as the upcoming race for 
DPP chairmanship and the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung 
mayoral elections.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
Taiwan's biggest daily, however, is the only paper that 
reported on its page two a U.S. Congressional Research 
Service report which says China will have submarines capable 
of deterring the United States from coming to Taiwan's aid 
by 2010. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, "China Times" 
Washington correspondent Norman Fu criticized President Chen 
Shui-bian's two-pronged strategy formulated in his New 
Year's Day address.  Fu said that as president, Chen "is 
capable of declaring Taiwan independence before he steps 
down, and his timetable to launch a `referendum on a new 
constitution' in 2007 may serve as a harbinger for plans to 
build an independent nation."  End summary. 
 
"Chen Shui-bian's Two-Pronged Strategy" 
 
Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the "Washington 
Outlook" column in the centrist, pro-status quo "China 
Times" [circulation: 400,000] (1/12): 
 
"One New Year's Day speech [by President Chen Shui-bian] has 
created uncertainties for both cross-Strait and Taiwan-U.S. 
relations.  Beijing did not react strongly to Chen's speech 
possibly because it has seen through Chen's deceptive 
personality; it saw no need to say much about Chen's speech 
unless he really starts to take action.  Washington's 
reactions, however, were instant and strong, because it was 
afraid that it would be dragged into [possible confrontation 
with China] since the United States is obligated to protect 
Taiwan's safety. . 
 
"Chen's speech was mainly meant to target an audience inside 
Taiwan, especially his loyal followers, so that he can 
secure their unwavering support for him.  The United States 
was clearly aware of Chen's motive, and that's why an 
[unnamed] U.S. official said during his interview with a 
Taiwan media outlet that [Washington] understands that Chen 
is sometimes compelled to say or do something out of 
consideration for Taiwan's domestic situation.  But as long 
as Taiwan's cross-Strait policy remains unchanged and Chen 
adheres to his pledge to the United States, [the official 
said,] Washington can still exercise leniency with regard to 
Chen's `freedom of speech' inside Taiwan. 
 
"This is, however, a very dangerous move in reality.  To put 
it more candidly, it is akin to appeasing Chen only to 
encourage him to do something he originally planned to do. 
One must be aware that under the worst case scenario, Chen 
is capable of taking risks in desperation and going right 
ahead in changing Taiwan's national title in public and 
declaring independence.  As president, Chen is entitled to 
make such a decision. .. 
 
"Some Westerners and some Taiwan people believed that Chen 
could become the [Richard] Nixon across the Taiwan Strait, 
meaning that he is able to break the cross-Strait impasse 
and push for normalization of cross-Strait relations.  But 
Chen chose to walk in the opposite direction.  If Chen takes 
a calculated risk, desiring to accomplish a glorious mission 
that will make him go down in history, he is capable of 
declaring Taiwan independence before he steps down; his 
timetable to launch a `referendum on a new constitution' in 
2007 may as well serve as a harbinger for plans to build an 
independent nation. ." 
 
PAAL