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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 000073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CI
SUBJECT: EVE OF CHILE'S PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF ELECTION: NO 
CLEAR WINNER ON THE HORIZON 
 
REF: A. 05 SANTIAGO 02486 
 
     ¶B. 05 SANTIAGO 02541 
     ¶C. 05 SANTIAGO 02495 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. Summary: Two days before the January 15 presidential 
run-off election, the ruling center-left Concertacion 
coalition's Michelle Bachelet leads center-right opposition 
Alianza coalition candidate Sebastian Pinera in the polls to 
succeed Ricardo Lagos as Chile's next president.  The Pinera 
campaign argues that the large number of undecided voters 
continue to give him a strong chance to prevail.  Pinera has 
intensified his attacks on Bachelet,s leadership qualities 
and portrayed himself as the only candidate who has proven 
successful leadership qualities in both the business and 
political worlds.  Voting will begin early on Sunday, January 
15, with preliminary results available around 1800 local time 
(1600 EST).  The winner, and the new Congress, will take 
office on March 11, 2006.  End summary. 
 
¶2. On January 15, Chileans will elect as president one of the 
top two vote-getters from the December 11 first round 
election (ref a): center-left Concertacion candidate Michelle 
Bachelet, and center-right Alianza candidate Sebastian 
Pinera.  Bachelet won 45.96 percent of the vote during the 
first round, compared with 25.44 percent for Pinera and 23.23 
percent for the other rightist candidate, former Santiago 
mayor Joaquin Lavin.  Since no candidate won more than 50 
percent of the vote, Bachelet and Pinera moved on to a 
run-off.  To date, there have been no notable allegations of 
corruption, influence peddling or outside interference during 
the campaign.  However, Pinera and Alianza members of 
Congress have charged President Lagos and senior members of 
his administration, including former Education Minister 
Bitar, with intervening in the elections by actively 
campaigning on Bachelet's behalf.  These allegations, which 
have yet to be investigated, do not seem to have aroused much 
concern in the electorate. 
 
¶3. Bachelet emerged from the first round in a strong 
position, just a few percentage points from obtaining an 
absolute majority.  After stumbling during the first week of 
the subsequent run-off campaign, she has regained her 
footing.  By granting some concessions (e.g., agreeing to 
change Chile,s binomial electoral system), Bachelet has 
secured the support of the Communist Party and other elements 
of the far-left &Together We Can8 coalition.  Key figures 
from different factions within the Christian Democratic party 
also lined up in support.  Most observers believe Bachelet 
more than held her own against Pinera during the January 4 
nationally-televised debate. 
 
¶4. Recent polls give Bachelet a lead of 3-11 percent over 
Pinera.  However, the polls also reflect a relatively high 
degree of uncertainty among a large segment of the 
electorate.  According to one national poll of 1500 
individuals conducted by the Chilean firm DataVoz in 
conjunction with leading Chilean daily "La Tercera," 22 
percent of registered voters said they were "uncommitted8 
(i.e. undecided, no response, void or blank votes).  The 
Pinera campaign believes these numbers reflect uncertainty 
and concern about a Bachelet presidency.  As a result, Pinera 
has intensified his attacks on Bachelet,s leadership 
inexperience and, in the process, portrayed himself as the 
candidate who possesses the necessary leadership qualities to 
lead Chile into the developed world. 
 
¶5. As of January 13, campaign advertising must cease.  Polls 
are scheduled to open at 0700 on January 15 and close at 
approximately 1700.  Using the December 11 first round 
election as a guide, preliminary results may be announced by 
1800 local time (1600 EST).  The winner of Sunday's election, 
together with the new Congress that was elected on December 
11, will be inaugurated on March 11. 
 
Factors to Watch 
---------------- 
 
¶6. Michelle Bachelet is clearly in a strong position to 
succeed President Lagos.  Her numbers (nearly 46 percent), 
 
SANTIAGO 00000073  002 OF 002 
 
 
and the backing of an extremely popular president, make her 
the front-runner to win Sunday's election.  Following the 
first round, Post identified several factors that were likely 
to influence the outcome on January 15 (ref b).  The first 
-- Lagos Administration public support and the President's 
personal involvement -- appears to be have been met. 
President Lagos has stepped up his public support for 
Bachelet during the run-off campaign, including a visit this 
week to the region of the country where support for Bachelet 
was the lowest in the first round.  It is unclear whether two 
other important factors -- Bachelet,s ability to hold on to 
centrist voters and to persuade "Together We Can" coalition 
supporters to vote for her -- will go her way on Sunday. 
 
¶7. Sebastian Pinera's road is steeper, and his success will 
depend to a large extent on two factors: his ability to 
secure the 23 percent of the vote that went to his rival on 
the right, Joaquin Lavin, in the first round; and his success 
in &stealing8 some votes from the more conservative wing of 
the Concertacion coalition's Christian Democratic Party.  One 
without the other will not be enough.  Another factor which 
could play a role in determining the winner of the election 
is whether non-participants in the first round's 12 percent 
abstention rate come forward and vote on January 15. 
KELLY