This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: ARIAS LIKELY TO WIN PRESIDENCY, BUT WITHOUT 
MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATURE 
 
REF: SAN JOSE 180 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1.  (U) Reputable polls conducted over the last six months 
show Oscar Arias, who was president 1986-90, with a 
consistent and commanding lead to be reelected president on 
February 5.  Polls taken in late January show Arias, 
considered a centrist candidate, to have the support of 45-49 
percent of the voters against 21-24 percent for leftist 
candidate Otton Solis and 14-15 percent for rightist 
candidate Otto Guevara, Arias's closest rivals.  For the 
57-member unicameral Legislative Assembly, however, polling 
suggests that Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) will 
win less than a majority at 24 members (deputies).  Solis's 
Citizens' Action Party (PAC) will be the main opposition with 
13 deputies, and Guevara's Libertarian Movement (ML) is 
expected to win 8 seats.  The governing party of the last 8 
years, the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC), may win only 
4 seats because of voters' disgust with the poor record of 
the Pacheco administration and corruption scandals affecting 
two past presidents elected under the PUSC banner.  The 
remaining 8 seats in the Assembly are expected to be divided 
between 5 minor parties.  Though the fragmentation of the 
Assembly appears to be a recipe for gridlock, we expect Arias 
to be much more adept at ad hoc coalition-building than 
Pacheco has been.  End summary. 
 
A Ho-Hum Election 
----------------- 
¶2.  (U) Since March 2004, when Oscar Arias announced his 
intention to run again for the presidency, he has had 
frontrunner status.  Various polls conducted since August 
2005 show Arias's support at 45 to 50 percent against 14 to 
24 percent for his closest rival, Otton Solis.  This led 
President Pacheco to state the obvious at his regular Tuesday 
press conference on January 24:  "If Don Oscar has about 50 
percent, as the polls seem to indicate, and the one who 
follows has half of that, I don't think there is much of a 
contest."  Predictably, there were howls of protest from all 
of the candidates except Arias, claiming that Pacheco was 
taking sides or discouraging voters from going to the polls. 
(Note:  Costa Rica's electoral code prohibits the president 
and other high-level officials from "using the authority or 
influence of their positions to the benefit of political 
parties," i.e., they cannot participate in political 
campaigns.) 
 
¶3.  (U) The strategy of Arias's opponents is to force a 
runoff election which is required under the constitution if 
no candidate obtains 40 percent of the vote.  The problem 
they have is that all the polls show Arias to be comfortably 
above that bar, and, even if he failed in the first round on 
February 5, it is difficult to conceive of a scenario in 
which he would lose in the second round, which would take 
place, if necessary, on April 2. 
 
Three-Way Presidential Race 
--------------------------- 
¶4.  (U) Polling by different companies and at different times 
has been remarkably consistent and unchanging.  There are a 
total of 14 presidential candidates on the ballot, but only 
three of them have significant voter support.  The two most 
recent polls (Demoscopia and CID-Gallup), both conducted in 
the second half of January, show Arias, a centrist candidate, 
with 45 to 49 percent.  Arias's principal rivals, Otton 
Solis, a leftist, and Otto Guevara, a rightist, were both 
candidates for president in 2002.  The polls for this 
election show Solis with 21 to 24 percent support, slightly 
down from the 26 percent of the votes he won in 2002. 
Guevara now has 14 to 15 percent support, a dramatic 
improvement over the 2 percent of the votes he got four years 
ago.  None of the other candidates rates higher than 6 
percent.  (Note:  The above polling figures are percentages 
of those voters who are decided; about 25 percent of 
registered voters are still undecided.) 
 
Nine-Way Legislative Race 
------------------------- 
¶5.  (U) The more interesting race is for the unicameral 
Legislative Assembly, all of whose 57 members (deputies) turn 
over, as the constitution does not permit their serving 
consecutive terms.  According to the latest poll on party 
preferences for the Assembly (one cannot run as an 
independent), nine different parties could end up with seats. 
 Arias's National Liberation Party (PLN) is expected to have 
24 deputies in the new Assembly, up from the 17 elected in 
¶2002.  Solis's Citizens' Action Party (PAC), according to the 
poll, will have 13 deputies, down by one from 2002.  The 
Libertarian Movement (ML) of Otto Guevara could elect 8 
deputies, up by two from 2002.  The biggest story in this 
election is the expected collapse of the governing party of 
the last eight years and the party of three of Costa Rica's 
last four presidents, the Social Christian Unity Party 
(PUSC).  In 2002 PUSC won 19 seats, making it the largest 
party in the current Assembly.  The party has practically 
disintegrated in the last four years due to corruption 
scandals affecting PUSC presidents Rafael Angel Calderon 
(1990-94) and Miguel Angel Rodriguez (1998-02) and what is 
generally regarded as the abysmal performance of President 
Pacheco, who is also from PUSC.  As a result of all of this, 
the latest polls show PUSC winning only 4 seats in the next 
Assembly and its presidential candidate, Ricardo Toledo, with 
only 3 to 6 percent of the vote.  Five minor parties are 
expected to win the remaining 8 seats in the Assembly. 
 
Turnout 
------- 
¶6.  (U) A surprising result of both January polls in that 
almost 80 percent of those surveyed said they intended to 
vote.  If all who intend to vote actually do vote, there will 
be a substantial improvement over the 60 percent voter 
turnout in 2002.  About 77 percent of those who intend to 
vote will vote for the same party for president and 
legislature.  The Demoscopia poll showed that if those who do 
not now intend to vote and those who are still undecided do 
in fact vote on February 5, their votes will be distributed 
roughly proportionally among the parties supported by the 
decided voters.  Thus the size of the turnout is not expected 
to affect the election results.  What is not accounted for in 
the polls, however, is the get-out-the-vote capability of the 
different parties on election day.  PLN has the best 
organization and financing and may substantially boost its 
vote by providing transportation to citizens otherwise 
confined to their homes. 
 
The Campaign 
------------ 
¶7.  (U) The platforms of the main candidates have been 
notably lacking in ideology and discussions of "big issues." 
Rather, the focus has been on bread-and-butter issues that 
confront average voters every day, e.g. the poor condition of 
the roads, increasing crime, unemployment, etc.  CAFTA-DR has 
been in the background.  However, the polls show a strong 
correlation between support for CAFTA-DR and support for PLN, 
ML, and PUSC.  Those who oppose CAFTA-DR tend to support PAC 
and Otton Solis, who has been saying that CAFTA-DR must be 
renegotiated. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8.  (SBU) Oscar Arias, Costa Rica's probable next president, 
even if he doesn't get 50 percent of the vote, will be 
elected with what will be considered here to be a strong 
mandate.  He, like President Pacheco, however, will have to 
deal with a fragmented legislature with no majority party. 
In the Pacheco Administration, that fragmentation combined 
with Pacheco's very weak leadership abilities resulted in 
gridlock, the worst example of which is Pacheco's fiscal 
reform package, introduced shortly after he took office and 
still being debated almost four years later. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Arias is very different from Pacheco, and Costa 
Ricans will not tolerate another four years of do-nothing 
government.  Although Costa Rica has no tradition of formal 
and permanent coalitions between political parties (up until 
2002 this being essentially a two-party political system), 
Arias has indicated he will build ad hoc coalitions around 
particular issues.  For example, the PLN, ML, and PUSC could 
join together in support of CAFTA-DR, and PAC and PUSC could 
support the PLN's plans to increase education spending.  What 
is clear is that Arias will work harder on his legislative 
agenda than Pacheco has, and we expect more will be 
accomplished. 
LANGDALE