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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J5/J2/POLAD//

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV EAGR EFIN PM
SUBJECT: EXIT INTERVIEW WITH FORMER PANAMANIAN PRESIDENTIAL
SECRETARY FOR GOALS AND PLANNING EBRAHIM ASVAT

SIPDIS

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION LUIS ARREAGA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
 AND (D).

SUMMARY
-------
¶1.  (C) Former Secretary for Planning and Goals Ebrahim Asvat
commented on President Torrijos's leadership style, the
possibility of an early 2006 cabinet shakeup, and the timing
of a future Canal referendum in a December meeting with POL
Counselor.  Always outspoken and provocative, the bespeckled,
goateed Asvat termed cabinet meetings "chaotic," bemoaned the
lack of a chief of staff to impose order and to screen,
evaluate, and prioritize issues, and complained about the
slowness of Torrijos's decisionmaking.  Asvat pointed out
that Torrijos does not have adequate staff support or advice
and thus, paradoxically, has no "leisure" (despite his
slowness) to consider issues adequately before he must act.
But, as Asvat points out, Torrijos himself is the one who
imposes that style and that structure (or lack of structure).
 Apparently back in his old job as president/editor of the
news tabloid El Siglo, Asvat quit his unpaid post as
Secretary for Planning and Goals on November 21, complaining

SIPDIS
of lack of support from President Torrijos, an old gripe.
End summary.

Canal Referendum
----------------
¶2.  (C) In a December 2005 meeting with POL Counselor, Asvat
predicted a Canal referendum would not take place before
November or December 2006 or, more likely, sometime in 2007.
"This is not a group that likes to take decisions rapidly,"
he pointed out.

"My Friends, Right or Wrong"
----------------------------
¶3.  (C) Asvat summed up Torrijos's attitude to high
government appointments as "my friends right or wrong."
Torrijos wants his friends in government with him but he is
less concerned about paying attention to whether they are
doing a good job or potentially breaking the law, Asvat
asserted.  (Comment: Torrijos's remarkable, some would say
exaggerated, commitment to close, personal associates, who
include many U.S. educated technocrats, like himself, is a
two-edged sword.  It chips away at the credit he brought
himself by marginalizing the PRD "old guard."  End comment.)

Cabinet Shakeup?
----------------
¶4.  (C) Asvat said that he expects a cabinet shakeup early in
¶2006.  The likely victims: Minister of Economy and Finance
Catin Vasquez, Agriculture Minister Laurentino Cortizo, and
Tourism Minister Ruben Blades.  Asvat termed Ag Minister
Cortizo's expected departure "long overdue."  (Comment:
Cortizo has proved more inimical to U.S. agriculture exports
than any agriculture minister in living memory.  End
Comment.)  Asvat claimed that Torrijos had wanted to ax
Vasquez in September 2005 but the timing was inconvenient
because Vasquez then was lobbying hard for the Canal
Administrator job.  (Comment: Possibly the cabinet's most
brilliant technocrat if not its most adroit politician,
Vasquez took a lot of public heat, whether deserved or not,
in May-June 2005 for operating the "heartless computer" that
produced the now-rejected social security reform bill.
Vasquez followed that performance with a highly visible
lobbying campaign (that visibly annoyed Torrijos) to unseat
Canal Administrator Alberto Aleman.  Despite his efforts, the
ACP Board confirmed Aleman to a second seven-year term in
November 2005.  End Comment.)

Asvat To Tourism?
-----------------
¶5.  (C) Asvat claimed that Torrijos met with him after his
resignation and said that he might name him Tourism Minister,
at the expense of current Minister Ruben Blades.  Asvat has
clear ideas about what he would do as tourism minister.  A
Harvard grad, Asvat is keen to use market mechanisms to raise
Panama's standard of living.  He pushes the idea that
investment in mass tourism projects plays to Panama's natural
endowments of deserted coastlines and tens of thousands of
eager, unemployed or semi-employed workers.  Tourism is one
of the few potential mass job-creating engines available to
Panama, he claimed.  Asvat also underscored Panama's boom in
"residential tourism" -- as hundreds of U.S., Canadian, and
European snow birds are snapping up relatively cheap
(compared with U.S. prices) beach front and condo properties.

No Leisure, No Support
----------------------
¶6.  (C) Asvat claimed that President Torrijos does not have
the "leisure" to ponder important matters and he does not
have a staff to advise him on what decisions to make.  An
example was a call he got from Vice President/Foreign
Minister Samuel Lewis in early December asking for advice on
what to do about the revocation of Supreme Court magistrate
Winston Spadafora's U.S. visa.  There is no gate keeper at
the Presidency, Asvat continued, no official filtering
process, no chief of staff to impose order and discipline.
Ministerial meetings are (predictably) chaotic.  Anyone can
say or propose anything.  Nothing is vetted beforehand, so no
one can tell what interests underlie a particular proposal.
One example: a proposed casino in Santiago, two hours west of
Panama City, about the least touristy town imaginable, Asvat
said.  No one criticizes anyone else's proposals, to avoid
having their own ideas criticized.  On top of that, the
Presidency has no or almost no public relations/information
capability, no way to explain ideas to the public, Asvat
complained.  Asvat attributes the lack of structure to
Torrijos and his preferences for how he wants to organize (or
not) the Presidency.

Comment
-------
¶7.  (C) Asvat once predicted that Torrijos would make him his
public relations chief, which never happened.  Although
Asvat's predictions about a ministry for himself must be
viewed with caution, other Embassy sources have heard similar
rumors about Vasquez and Cortizo.  As for how Torrijos runs
(or fails to run) day-to-day operations at the Palace, his
habits by now probably are too ingrained to be susceptible to
change.  A January 1 La Prensa article quoted Asvat as saying
that the Panamanian people mainly would judge the Torrijos
government in three areas: job creation, security, and
fighting corruption.

EATON