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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000045 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CA PGOV
SUBJECT: OPERATION THUNDERING POUTINE: EMBASSY OTTAWA'S 
INFORMAL ELECTION OBSERVATION MISSION HITS THE HUSTINGS 
 
 
OTTAWA 00000045  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In an effort to penetrate the headlines 
and polls, Embassy Poloff and PolFSN visited local Ontario 
and Quebec campaign headquarters to talk with candidates, 
campaign managers, and volunteers.  The resultant worm's-eye 
view of the campaign revealed the importance of local issues 
and often local personalities to the party's strategy for 
victory, no complaints or concerns about the winter and 
holiday campaign (other than its length), generally better 
organization and use of technology in the Conservative 
headquarters but better ability to mobilize young people 
among the Liberals, little interest in the U.S. as an issue, 
and the emergence of law and order as an topic of unexpected 
prominence.  Everyone we spoke with agreed that the campaign 
really began in earnest only in January, and in ridings that 
are strongly contested there is a growing amount of energy as 
the crucial final push gets underway.  Even in ridings that 
appear firmly in one camp, however, nothing is being taken 
for granted.  En 
d Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) Deployment Order 1 
 
Operation Thundering Poutine, Phase I 
Mission: Visit Ontario and Quebec campaign headquarters and 
get a sense for how this election really looks on the ground 
in the National Capital Region. 
Unit of Assignment: Embassy Political Section 
Logistics: One Embassy Ford Taurus, one tank of gas, 
unlimited supply of Tim Horton's coffee and donuts 
Length of Deployment: December 20 to January 5 (with time off 
for holidays) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Embassy Poloff and PolFSN hit the local hustings 
over the past several weeks to talk to campaign managers and 
candidates in the Vanier, Ottawa Center, Gatineau, Nepean, 
and Nepean-Carlton ridings.  The visits were generally well 
received, with campaign organizers anxious to share their 
view of how the campaign is progressing and their strategy 
for victory. 
 
ISSUES--ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL, BUT THE BACKDROP IS NATIONAL 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) There was a wide variety of issues that campaign 
organizers said they were hearing from voters.  Nepean 
candidate John Baird said he saw health, a desire for change, 
crime and corruption as being the key issues while his 
Liberal counterpart believes the bottom line will be the 
strength of the economy and the preservation of health care. 
All ridings had at least one purely local issue that voters 
were reportedly concerned about and were interested in how 
the various candidates would take up that issue with Ottawa 
on their behalf.  In Barrhaven, for example, there is a key 
question about the status of a local hospital, in Vanier, the 
fate of a local military facility, in Ottawa Center, the 
area's status with the National Capital Commission.  There 
were also, especially in the more educated ridings, certain 
"boutique" issues -- foreign assistance was cited in Ottawa 
center for example, as was funding for the CBC.  There was 
also concern about how otherwise national issues would effect 
local voters -- i 
n Nepean-Carleton, which is a mixed suburban-urban riding, 
voters in Barrhaven (known locally as "Babyhaven") were 
concerned with day care policies, while their rural neighbors 
Qconcerned with day care policies, while their rural neighbors 
were concerned with the gun registry. 
 
¶5. (SBU) But national themes were ever looming.  Health care, 
specifically reduction of wait times, was one of the few 
issues that was universally mentioned.  Even before the 
Boxing Day shooting there was talk of crime and gun violence 
as secondary issues, but in ridings we visited after the 
holidays law and order had emerged as a key issue.  Some of 
what we were told of course reflected what the parties hoped 
to hear -- the Liberal campaign manager in Nepean told us she 
thought voters were still focused on the strength of the 
economy and not wanting to rock the prosperity boat, while 
her counterpart on the Conservative side said he was hearing 
a strong desire for change and and and end to corruption. 
Another issue that resonates in certain ridings is 
immigration, particularly how to best manage the integration 
of immigrants in ridings with large numbers of recent 
 
OTTAWA 00000045  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
arrivals, and how Canadians can sponsor family members as new 
immigrants. 
 
ISSUES, PARTY, OR CANDIDATE? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) We asked every campaigner whether they believed the 
key factor in their riding was the personality of the 
candidate or the national issues of the party they 
represented, and were given mixed views.  The campaign 
manager for the Conservative candidate in Vanier said that he 
believes there are very few ridings where the candidate wins 
based on his own personal merits, and that voters only factor 
in the local candidate on the margins of their decision.  But 
two other local ridings show the importance of the 
candidate's local credentials.  Conservative Pierre Poilievre 
unseated Defense Minister David Pratt in Nepean-Carleton in 
the last election in a huge upset by simply being on site far 
more than the incumbent and showing that he would be more 
focused on the community's issues (especially those of rural 
voters) than carrying out cabinet duties.  He reportedly is 
expected to now control this previously Liberal riding for as 
long as he wants it.  In his campaign, it is all about 
Pierre, not the Conservat 
ive party.  The highly popular NDP candidate Ed Broadbent 
returned to politics in Ottawa Center after a 12 year absence 
in 2004 and easily unseated the Liberal incumbent, again 
based on personal, not party appeal.  But in other races 
there was a clear effort to campaign on the coattails of the 
party or party leader -- Ottawa Center Liberal candidate 
Mahoney is clearly linked to "Paul Martin's Liberals" and 
Nepean Conservative candidate John Baird is running on the 
National Conservative "Time for Change" platform. 
 
U.S. NOT A FACTOR, YET 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The U.S. was not seen to be an issue anywhere (and 
we don't think this is because people were just trying to be 
polite because in some cases they really weren't all that 
polite).  The campaign manager for Gatineau Bloc candidate 
Richard Nadeau said that while the softwood lumber issue 
might generate some anti-American sentiment in the campaign 
further north in lumber country, it is simply not an issue 
here.  She said that there were too many immediate issues to 
allow something as abstract as relations with the U.S. to be 
a factor.  Everyone else we spoke with essentially agreed. 
The bottom line was they couldn't see any angle to U.S. 
relations that gave one party an advantage, so the candidates 
at the local level were simply leaving it alone.  None were 
being fed any American content from national campaign 
headquarters. 
 
WINTER CAMPAIGN? NO PROBLEM 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) There was no grousing from anyone about the winter 
campaign, although there were certain logistical adjustments 
that had to be made.  Nepean candidate Baird made the point 
that the length of the campaign is the real issue, since the 
amount of money a candidate may spend is the same for a 28 
day as a 56 day campaign.  Outlays for rent, phones, 
internet, even signs had to be spread out and budgets rigidly 
adhered to.  With the advent of the 2003 campaign finance 
reform there is a limit on what a local riding can spend - 
Qreform there is a limit on what a local riding can spend - 
Baird said it is currently CN$81,000, with strict limits on 
campaign contributions -- CN$5,000 from corporations and 
CN$1,000 from individuals.  Funding comes either from local 
fund-raising, party fund-raising, or the national coffers 
which are proportionally stocked by the government with 
CN$1.75 per vote in the most recent election.  In ridings 
that are in play, such as Ottawa Center, it was clear that 
the national parties made sure the local ridings had the full 
amount of funding, wh 
ile in ridings such as Vanier, which the Liberals have won in 
every election since 1930, the Conservative candidate 
appeared to be left largely to raise what he could on his 
own.  There is clearly a prioritization of scarce resources. 
¶9. (SBU) The winter also had an impact on how candidates 
campaign, although apparently only on the margins. 
Amazingly, door-knocking, even in a winter campaign, is still 
 
OTTAWA 00000045  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
seen as one of the most important tasks for getting elected. 
While the Liberal and Bloc candidates in Gatineau said they 
did look for venues that would bring together several dozen 
or optimally several hundred persons indoors, they also 
scheduled time each day to knock doors.  Both campaign 
managers in Ottawa Center said that they actually limit the 
number of group events because it takes time away from door 
knocking.  Debates are accepted as necessary evils but are 
generally limited because they are seen as merely "preaching 
to the converted."  They believe that making the effort to 
contact voters directly is simply expected in this riding and 
there is no substitute for knocking doors.  The trick is to 
do so quickly and efficiently and candidates have come up 
with ingenious ways to manage the issue of escaping heat 
without getting drawn in 
to houses and losing precious time. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Most ridings also have four party debates and 
candidates looked for formal and informal events that would 
have the maximum impact.  On all campaign schedules there 
were a number of events for senior citizen voters, visits to 
old folks homes, bridge tournaments, etc.  The offices were 
also largely staffed during the daytime with the older 
volunteers, and this was clearly a key constituency for 
candidates and a key source of volunteers. 
 
GEARING UP FOR THE FINALE 
------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Energy levels in the campaign headquarters varied 
widely -- some were flush with volunteers and activity while 
one had only the candidate's spouse getting ready to go put 
up signs.  Several of the Conservative ridings evinced a very 
corporate atmosphere, with very well-organized phone and 
computer banks and scores of volunteers.  Nepean candidate 
Baird said that Stephen Harper brought to the Conservative 
party a more sophisticated use of technology in campaigning 
that is helping all local ridings to better identify their 
target audience and get the message out (although one 
American Emboff who was sent something by the Conservatives 
as a registered voter questions this).  The strong Liberal 
ridings such as Ottawa Center were also very well organized 
and energetic, and benefited from large numbers of young 
volunteers from local universities.  The Liberals have an 
organized youth wing which the Conservatives opted not to 
develop so as not to "ghettoize" youth in the party; at a 
time like this the abil 
ity to muster the Young Liberals of Canada appears to be a 
definite asset.  While one Liberal staffer almost dismissed 
youths as big talkers rather than big voters, there can be no 
doubt the Liberals mobilize the YLC to their full advantage 
-- a ready-made, educated, and enthusiastic work force. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment:  In the last election some 100 ridings 
were won by less than 1,000 votes.  Candidates from parties 
in the third of the country's ridings that lost by low 
margins in the last election see this as an opportunity while 
those from winning parties see it as a clear threat.  It is 
leading few candidates at this point to take anything for 
granted and the campaign's energy level is beginning to grow. 
 The Conservatives have now seemingly pulled even with the 
Q The Conservatives have now seemingly pulled even with the 
Liberals in national polls, and at both the local and the 
national levels the contest will intensify over the coming 
weeks, especially in those key 25 or so southern Ontario 
ridings that will determine the next government. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS