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UNCLAS MINSK 000077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly VI (January 20-January 27) 
 
REF: MINSK 44 
 
¶1. (U) January 27 is the final day for presidential contenders 
to submit signatures.  Each contender must submit a minimum of 
100,000 signatures to the Central Election Committee. This is 
the sixth in a weekly series of election-oriented reports, 
providing brief items of interest related to the March 19, 2006 
presidential elections. 
 
------------------ 
Signature Campaign 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Signature Updates 
 
The initiative groups of the following presidential contenders 
released updates on the number of signatures collected to date: 
 
Candidate           Number of Signatures     Date 
---------           --------------------     ---- 
 
Lukashenko             1,574,000             January 24 
Milinkevich              178,000             January 21 
Kozulin                  160,000             January 24 
Gaidukevich              140,000             January 19 
Poznyak                  100,000             January 19 
Frolov                   100,000             January 23 
Skrebets (withdrew)       55,000             January 19 
 
Candidate Activity 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Frolov Hangs Up His Hat? 
 
On January 20, presidential contender General Valery Frolov 
announced he was ready to negotiate with 10 Plus presidential 
contender Aleksandr Milinkevich at the end of the signature 
campaign.  Frolov claimed he was wrong in thinking he was the 
best candidate for president.  However, Frolov claimed 
negotiations with Milinkevich would depend on Milinkevich's 
motives and his obligations to "forces" that support him.  On 
January 23, the head of Frolov's initiative group, Igor Azarko, 
announced Frolov's intention to withdraw from the presidential 
race and that there would soon be a statement explaining his 
reasons. 
 
¶4. (U) Poznyak to Return to Belarus 
 
Presidential contender Zenon Poznyak told Russian journalists 
on January 23 that he would return to Belarus after being 
registered as a candidate, and subsequently, gaining immunity. 
Poznyak left Belarus in 1996 for fear of being jailed.  Poznyak 
accused other campaign groups of being created by the secret 
services and helping the regime rather than opposing it. 
Poznyak estimated that one million people would vote for him 
and his national revival and liberation movement. 
 
¶5. (U) Skrebets Withdraws, Supports Kozulin 
 
Jailed presidential contender Sergey Skrebets withdrew his 
nomination on January 26 and pledged his support to fellow 
presidential contender Aleksandr Kozulin.  Kozulin's campaign 
manager welcomed Skrebets' support and noted that Kozulin's 
team was ready to admit all members of Skrebets' initiative 
group. 
 
¶6. (U) CEC Expects Only Four Candidates 
 
In a January 26 interview with the state newspaper Zvyazda, CEC 
President Ludmilla Yermoshina expected only four presidential 
contenders to be registered as candidates.  Yermoshina claimed 
the signature campaign was calm, but noted that initiative 
groups were "too slow" submitting signatures.  Yermoshina 
predicted that this would cause long lines of initiative group 
members at election commissions on the final day, resulting in 
disorganization and conflicts between commission members and 
initiative groups.  [Note: On January 25, Kozulin's group filed 
a complaint to the CEC accusing executive authorities of 
refusing to certify signatures by claiming they were too busy, 
forcing signature collectors to wait hours for signature 
stamps.] 
 
Warnings and Complaints 
----------------------- 
¶7. (U) Kozulin Angers CEC 
 
Presidential contender Kozulin's January 17 article in 
Narodnaya Volya, in which Kozulin predicted he would be the 
next president, angered the CEC.  Secretary of the CEC Nikolai 
Lozovik accused Kozulin of using the article for early 
electioneering and warned other contenders to refrain from 
"abusing" the CEC's yielding attitude.  Lozovik claimed that 
such violations would be considered when it was time to 
register candidates. 
 
¶8. (U) Complaint Filed Against Lukashenko 
 
Brest resident Sergey Akulenka filed a complaint on January 20 
with the police department against President Lukashenko's 
initiative group for allegedly violating Belarus' electoral 
code.  According to Akulenka, on January 18, a woman without 
accreditation was collecting signatures for the President at 
the regional library and her signature sheets had no 
information about the candidate.  In addition, she was 
allegedly distributing Lukashenko campaign leaflets.  Police 
confiscated the signature sheets.  Other reports of coercion by 
Lukashenko's team include forcing postmen, housing 
administrators, teachers, and hospital workers to collecting 
signatures or risk losing their jobs. 
 
¶9. (U) Sheiman Denies Violations 
 
Head of Lukashenko's campaign Viktor Sheiman in a January 24 
radio interview denied that the President's initiative group 
was using government resources to aid their campaign.  He also 
claimed that only accredited campaign managers were gathering 
signatures for Lukashenko, and without using coercion.  He 
admitted that some of the 6,000 members of Lukashenko's 
initiative group have behaved badly, but those incidents were 
isolated and resolved. 
 
¶10. (U) Milinkevich Appeals Official Warning 
 
On January 20, Milinkevich' initiative group filed a complaint 
with the Supreme Court and the Prosecutor General's Office 
about the official warning it received from the CEC on January 
19 (reftel).  Milinkevich's lawyer, Vladimir Labkovich, claimed 
that only territorial commissions, not the CEC, could issue 
such warnings.  Labkovich also insisted that the printed 
material distributed by group members while collecting ballots 
was not campaign literature because it did not call for voting 
for Milinkevich.  CEC Secretary Lozovik told independent online 
news source BelaPan that the CEC's warning could only be 
appealed with the Prosecutor General's Office and was certain 
that the warning would be upheld.  Lozovik claimed that the 
CEC's warning was "well-founded" and backed with 
"incontrovertible" evidence. 
 
¶11. (U) Gaidukevich Wants Milinkevich and Kozulin Removed 
 
On January 25, presidential contender Sergey Gaidukevich 
petitioned the CEC to remove Milinkevich and Kozulin from the 
presidential race for early campaigning.  Gaidukevich told 
independent online news source BelaPan that he sent the CEC 
various campaign calendars and leaflets that his initiative 
group had collected from Milinkevich and Kozulin campaign 
members and noted Kozulin's January 19 Narodnaya Volya article. 
Lozovik replied that the CEC was already aware of the 
allegations stated in Gaidukevich's petition and assured that 
all instances would be taken into consideration before 
registering candidates. 
 
Media And Campaigning 
--------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Milinkevich Plans Rally 
 
On January 20, spokesperson for Milinkevich Sergey Voznyak 
announced Milinkevich's plans to hold a "large-scale" meeting 
with voters in March.  According to Voznyak, the meeting would 
take place in a hall in downtown Minsk, but if authorities 
denied permission, it would happen in a central square.  The 
rally is not linked to Lukashenko's March 2-3 All-Belarusian 
People's Assembly, because according to Voznyak, plans for the 
rally were made several months ago. [Note: On January 24, a 
senior member of the Milinkevich team told Pol/Econ Chief that 
the Milinkevich rally was indeed meant to draw attention away 
from Lukashenko's rally.] 
 
¶13. (U) Kozulin and Milinkevich Demand TV Coverage 
 
On January 26, Kozulin's campaign manager Mecheslav Grib 
petitioned CEC Head Yermoshina to allow him to appear six times 
per week on the state-controlled National Television's (BT) 
prime-time news program Panorama.  Grib's petition referred to 
the Lukashenko's campaign manager Viktor Sheiman's January 24 
appearance on the show, claiming the heads of other 
presidential contenders' campaigns were not given an 
opportunity to appear on TV.  Grib lashed out at the narrative 
before Sheiman's appearance that claimed other campaign 
managers declined to give interviews or comments on the 
progress of the signature campaign.  Grib and Milinkevich 
campaign official Aleksandr Bukhvostov claimed that BT did not 
approach them about interviews or comments. 
 
¶14. (U) German-Russian Group to Launch Radio Broadcasts to 
Belarus 
 
The European Commission (EC) on January 26 chose the German 
public relations firm Media Consulta and the Russian TV station 
Center TV (CTV) to broadcast news into Belarus for the next two 
years at a cost of two million euros.  The broadcasts are to 
begin in February in time to cover the March election.  Some 
opposition groups questioned the EC's choice, claiming that CTV 
had lucrative contracts with Lukashenko's national media 
agency.  An EC spokesperson noted that CTV would be a "sleeping 
partner" with no active role.  During his recent trip to 
Poland, Milinkevich regretted that the radio broadcasts had not 
yet started. 
 
Preparations For Elections 
-------------------------- 
 
¶15. (U) CEC Invites Baltic Observers and Not Georgians 
 
The CEC announced on January 20 that it had invited the Latvian 
and Lithuanian CECs to observe Belarus' elections.  CEC 
Secretary Lozovik said the decision was based on Belarus' good 
 
SIPDIS 
business and personal relations with the Baltic countries. 
However, the CEC did not invite observers from Georgia's CEC 
because it allegedly has no contact with its Georgian 
counterpart.  CEC Head Ludmilla Yermoshina claimed the decision 
was not political. 
 
¶16. (U) Time to Nominate Precinct Commissions 
 
Political parties, non-governmental organizations, and workers' 
collectives and groups (comprising no less than 10 workers or 
members) have until January 28 to nominate representatives to 
precinct commissions.  The commissions will be formed by 
February 1. 
 
¶17. (U) Military Polling Booths 
 
The Defense Ministry on January 23 announced it would open 81 
polling stations at military units and schools and would form 
election commissions for the stations by February 1.  Military 
units and organizations with more than ten people were eligible 
to nominate candidates for the commissions.  All nominations 
need to be supported with 10 signatures from voters living in 
the polling station's jurisdiction.  The defense ministry added 
that signature collectors and electioneers must first obtain 
permission from commanders before soliciting signatures, and 
only during non-service hours.  Military units are also giving 
"special" classes to soldiers to educate them about elections 
and election rules. 
 
¶18. (U) Extra Security 
 
Interior Minister Vladimir Naumov on January 24 issued a 
directive of security measures for the election from March 10 
to March 27.  The directive allows police to provide assistance 
to election commissions.  Then Interior Ministry plans to set 
up round-the-clock operation headquarters, reinforce 
investigative and task teams, and use internal troops and 
police school cadets to police the street.  Police are to check 
polling stations for fire safety and anti-theft security, 
provide security for meetings between candidates and voters, 
and protect international observers from theft.  Police will 
guard ballots during transportation and storage. 
 
¶19. (U) Lukashenko Vows No Kyrgyz Scenario 
 
President Lukashenko told journalists on January 12 that the 
upcoming elections would not witness a "Kyrgyz scenario," 
because the GOB would not allow any destabilization to occur. 
He claimed that the GOB would not rig the vote and would do its 
utmost to avoid accusations by registering all presidential 
candidates, even those who "have no right" to be registered. 
 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶20. (U) CEC Head Yermoshina and her January 26 opinions of 
Poznyak and Skrebets: 
 
"Poznyak's participation in the presidential campaign will 
liven up and obviously add some scandal should he return to 
Belarus." 
 
"If a miracle occurs and this [Skrebets'] group collects 
100,000 signatures, there will be no loosening the conditions 
for the man [Skrebets] held in custody at a pretrial detention 
center." 
 
KROL