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RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS MINSK 000050 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly V (January 16-January 20) 
 
 
¶1.  This is tha fifth in a wEekly series of election-oriented 
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March 
19, 2006 presidential elections. 
 
------------------ 
Signature Campaign 
------------------ 
 
¶2. SIgnature Updates 
 
The initiative groups of the following presidential contenders 
released updates on the number of signatures collected to date: 
 
Candidate           Number of Signatures     Date 
---------           --------------------     ---- 
 
MilInkevich              200,000             January 19 
Gaidukevich              140,000             January 19 
Kozulin                  128,000             January 20 
Poznyak                  100,000             January 19 
Fpolov                   90,000             January 19 
Skrebets                  55,000             January 19 
 
¶3. Who Is Gathering For Lukashenko 
 
On January 17, Poloff spoke with three signature gatherers 
outqide the entrance of the State Department Store (GUM) in 
downtown Minsk.  The gatherers did not say how many signatures 
they had collected, but admitted that they were GUM employees 
and not official members of Lukashenko's initiative group. 
ApparentlY, ald GUM employees arerequired to gather signatures 
for Lukashenko in two-hour shifts.  On January 19, Ten Plus 
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich and his initiative group 
released a press statement citing another couple of 
LukasheNko's alleged violations of the electoral law. 
According to the statement, a girl in the ninth grade in 
Vitebsk was collecting signatures for Lukashenko.  On January 
17, Secretary of the Central Election Committee (CEC) Nikolai 
Lozovik told Qol/Econ Chief that although the opposition 
candidates have made many press statements about alleged 
violations committed by Lukashenko, the CEC has not received 
any formal complaints against the President.  Lozovik added 
that he would put little stock in Such complaints, because 
Lukashenko did not need to engage in illegal activity with such 
high levels of popular support. 
 
¶4. Fears of Setups 
 
On January 17, presidential contender Aleksandr Kozulin's 
initiative group issued a statement accusing the authorities of 
hindering his campaign and the campaign of other opposition 
candidates.  Sources allegedly informed Kozulin's group that 
territorial election commissions plan to replace authentic 
signatures with fake ones, giving the CEC reasons to invalidate 
Kozulin's valid signatures.  Kozulin reported that a man from 
Mogilev allegedly offered to sell ballot-access signatures to 
Kozulin's group.  According to Kozulin, the signatures proved 
to be ones collected during the 2001 campaign.  Kozulin warned 
other presidential contenders to be wary of similar 
provocations. 
 
¶5. Another Kozulin Complaint to the CEC 
 
Kozulin's initiative group on January 16 filed two more 
complaints to the CEC and General Prosecutor's Office for 
alleged violations of the electoral code.  Kozulin's previous 
appeals to the CEC were rejected after CEC Secretary Lozovik 
claimed that the institutions in which employees were allegedly 
coerced to sign for Lukashenko did not exist.  Kozulin's 
January 16 complaint claimed that the police and BKGB in 
Verkhnedvinsk, Vitebsk region, interfered in the group's work, 
inquired about the Kozulin's group members and their places of 
employment, and pressured citizens to withdraw their 
signatures.  Kozulin accused authorities of denying his 
signature collectors access to the Minsk Radio Engineering 
College dormitory and evicting a student from a dormitory for 
being a member of Kozulin's group.  Kozulin reported similar 
problems throughout Belarus and urged the authorities to 
investigate. 
 
¶6. Obstacles for Poznyak 
 
Head of Zenan Poznyak's campaign Sergey Popkov told reporters 
on January 17 that authorities continue to interfere in his 
initiative group's signature campaign, but complaining about it 
to the CEC would be "useless."  Popkov claimed that signature 
collectors are continuously barred from student dormitories and 
arrested at subway stations while gathering signatures.  Popkov 
noted that Poznyak's group was documenting all incidents. 
 
¶7. Milinkevich and Poznyak Warned 
 
The CEC on January 18 issued an official warning to Milinkevich 
and Poznyak's initiative groups for allegedly distributing 
campaign material during the signature collection campaign, 
which is a violation of Belarus' electoral code.  Milinkevich 
called the warning "far-fetched" and plans to appeal the 
warning to the Supreme Court.  Poznyak's group admitted it 
distributed printed materials, but claimed it was legal because 
citizens did not have information about presidential 
contenders.  Poznyak encouraged other initiative groups to 
distribute information about their contenders.  After Poznyak's 
remarks, Head of the CEC Ludmilla Yermoshina regretted that the 
CEC's warning had been "too mild." 
 
¶8. Head Of the CEC Makes Predictions 
 
CEC head Yermoshina in a January 17 interview with independent 
newspaper BDG Delovaya Gazeta predicted that elections would be 
calm without any protests.  According to Yermoshina, the 
election results were more or less predictable and named 
Lukashenko as the strongest figure in the elections, but 
refrained from commenting on the chances of other contenders. 
The CEC head hoped that no less than three contenders would be 
registered as candidates, but did not expect more than four to 
make it on the ballot.  Yermoshina claimed all contenders were 
given equal opportunities as stated in the law.  However, the 
President had an advantage over the other candidates, since 
much of the electorate supported him and was more willing to 
collect signatures on his behalf. 
 
------------ 
Observations 
------------ 
 
¶9. MFA Invites CIS, ODIHR Observers 
 
On January 18, the MFA announced that it had invited the 
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Collective 
Security Treaty Organization, and the Eurasian Economic 
Community to observe Belarus' elections.  On January 19, the 
MFA announced it had invited ODIHR observers as part of 
Belarus' steps to ensure that the elections were conducted in 
accordance with international standards.  Head of the CEC 
Yermoshina expected 700 international observers to be invited 
and over 20,000 Belarusian citizens to participate in 
observations.  The MFA warned international organizations to 
"strictly follow" Belarusian legislation and not interfere in 
the election process.  The MFA hoped that the conclusions of 
the international monitors would not be "biased" or 
"politicized."  ODIHR spokeswoman Urdur Gunnarsdottir told 
reporters that the ODIHR needs assessment team would arrive in 
Belarus the week of January 23. 
 
¶10. CEC Approves Requirements for International Observers 
 
The CEC on January 18 approved rules of observation for March's 
presidential election.  According to CEC Secretary Lozovik, all 
international observers are to obtain accreditation with the 
CEC by presenting their invitation.  Accreditation will be 
valid from day of issuance until the day the official election 
results are announced.  International observers are allowed to 
attend sessions of elections commissions at all levels, meet 
with presidential candidates, representatives of political 
parties, and other organizations. Lozovik also noted that 
despite reports to the contrary, all observers will be allowed 
to observe the vote counting process.  Furthermore, observers 
have the right to freely express their opinion about the vote, 
but are not allowed to use their accreditation for activities 
not connected with the election.  Violators will lose their 
accreditation. 
 
¶11. CIS Observation Team in Place 
 
Vladimir Rushailo, head of the CIS election observation mission 
in Belarus, announced the CIS observation mission's plans to 
reporters on January 18.  The observation team, comprised of 
foreign staff members, permanent CIS representatives in 
Belarus, and CIS diplomats would begin with a visit to Beryoza 
district in Brest on January 19.  The CIS Executive Committee 
asked the CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly and the Belarusian 
and Russian Parliaments to contribute monitors.  The CIS's 
teams will be permanently based in regional capitals and will 
organize observations on the ground, maintain contact with 
local election commissions, monitor campaign coverage in the 
local media, and monitor voting at polling stations. 
 
¶12. CIS Monitor Praises Belarus' Electoral Law, Criticizes OSCE 
 
Rushailo told reporters on January 18 that Belarus' electoral 
code met all international and CIS standards.  Rushailo, whose 
long-term observation of Belarus' March Elections began on 
January 18, claimed Belarus' election campaign was being 
conducted in accordance with national law.  According to 
Rushailo, the CIS and ODIHR interpret facts differently.  For 
example, during the elections in Kazakhstan, ODIHR claimed 
incumbent President Nazarbayev received more state media 
coverage than the other contenders.  The CIS team, however, 
noted that Nazarbayev's coverage was mostly negative, worse 
than what the opposition suffered, and hurt Nazarbayev more 
than it helped.  Rushailo opined that the ODIHR needed to 
create uniform election assessment standards and criticized 
ODIHR's accusations that country leaders use "excessive" 
administrative leverage during elections.  He opined that ODIHR 
should first define what "administrative leverage" was and use 
a case-by-case approach to determine when it is excessive. 
Rushailo noted that the CIS's observation conclusions were 
similar to those of Chinese and Ukrainian MP observation teams. 
On January 19, Rushailo announced that the CIS team would not 
recognize exit poll results, citing their unreliability due to 
poorly trained pollsters who were unfamiliar with the proper 
methodology. 
 
--------------- 
What is Planned 
--------------- 
 
¶13. Polling Booth Locations 
 
On January 17, the CEC Secretary Lozovik announced that there 
would be approximately 7,000 polling stations in Belarus, each 
with 20 to 3,000 voters on the register depending on the 
location.  Village hospitals, for example, would have around 20 
voters on their registers and city election districts would 
have between 2,000 and 3,000.  Lozovik told journalists that it 
was the local executive government's responsibility, not the 
CEC's, to determine election district boundaries.  On January 
18, the CEC established the location of 41 polling stations 
abroad. 
 
¶14. Info Center in Minsk 
 
CEC Secretary Lozovik told reporters on January 18 that an 
information center would be created at the Palace of the 
Republic in downtown Minsk during the presidential election on 
March 19.  Rector of the Presidential Management Academy, 
Stanislav Knyazev, was assigned to make the necessary 
arrangements.  According to Lozovik, the center will provide 
"unbiased and prompt" information during the election by 
displaying voter turnout and results on large TV screens. 
Chair of the CEC Ludmila Yermoshina will also hold several news 
conferences at the information center. 
 
¶15. Contenders to Submit Income Statements 
 
The CEC on January 18 ordered presidential contenders to submit 
their income and property statements by February 11.  According 
to the CEC, presidential bidders are required to report not 
only their previous year's income and property, but also those 
of their parents, grandparents, children, grandchildren, 
siblings, spouses, and in-laws.  Once all the information is 
collected, the CEC will verify the documents and publish them 
in the newspapers within ten days. 
 
------------------- 
Opposition Strategy 
------------------- 
 
¶16. Former Contender Joins Alternative Vote Drive 
 
Former presidential contender Aleksandr Voitovich and his 
initiative group joined Poznyak's drive to organize an 
alternative vote.  Poznyak asked Lukashenko opponents to cast 
fake ballots on Election Day and take the original ballots to 
an independent election commission to be counted.  The 
objective is to discover the actual number of people who voted 
for Lukashenko.  Voitovich told independent news source BelaPan 
on January 18 that the plan could prove to be effective if all 
democratic contenders would drop out of the race.  Voitovich 
and Poznyak's groups are reportedly preparing to launch a 
promotional campaign for the alternative vote. 
 
¶17. Potential Agreement Between Candidates? 
 
During a January 16 trip to Molodechno, Milinkevich reportedly 
backed a proposal from Kozulin's initiative group to hold talks 
with presidential contenders after the end of the signature 
campaign.  According to Kozulin's associate, Aleksei Korol, 
Milinkevich agreed that candidates should hold talks on January 
28 to determine who has higher ratings and more ballot-access 
signatures and who represents a wider range of the electorate. 
Milinkevich told reporters that a boycott of the presidential 
election should be discussed only if all six presidential 
contenders bow out of the race. 
 
¶18. Milinkevich's Platform 
 
On January 13, the National Committee of Pro-Democratic Forces, 
the opposition's shadow government, posted its economic and 
social platform on the United Civic Party (UCP) website. 
Deputy UCP Chair and co-author of the platform Yaroslav 
Romanchuk told independent online news source BelaPan that the 
document outlines steps that Milinkevich's team would take if 
elected president.  The five-section platform deals with family 
values, labor and social matters, improvement of legislation, 
innovation activities, and scientific development.  Romanchuk 
expects the platform to restore political and economic 
freedoms, alleviate the tax burden, create favorable conditions 
for attracting foreign investments, raise pensions and 
benefits, and increase the birth rate.  The platform envisages 
government reform by downsizing security agencies and creating 
a dynamic workforce market that would raise Belarus' 
competitiveness in foreign markets. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
During her January 17 interview, Head of the CEC Ludmilla 
Yermoshina commented on why the March elections will be calm: 
 
"I am absolutely certain that the elections will be calm, 
because the social and economic basis for a shock are absent in 
Belarus.  The attitude in society attests that the results of 
the elections will be sufficiently predictable." 
 
KROL