VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0036/01 0171349
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171349Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3612
INFO RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3501
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3159
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 3080
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3279
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1520
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0828
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS MINSK 000036 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly IV (January 6-January 16) 
 
 
¶1.  This is the fourth in a weekly series of election-oriented 
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March 
19, 2006 presidential elections. 
 
-------------------- 
Signature Collection 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  Lukashenko Leads in Signature Collections; Other Meets 
Minimum Requirement 
 
The following are the latest numbers of collected signatures as 
reported by independent news source Belapan.  [Note: Each 
candidate needs 100,000 signatures to run in the presidential 
election.] 
 
Candidate           Number of Signatures       Date Reported 
 
¶A. Lukashenko       993,000                    January 11 
¶A. Milinkevich      140,000                    January 16 
¶S. Gaidukevich      124,000                    January 16 
¶A. Kozulin          100,000                    January 12 
¶V. Frolov            60,000                    January 16 
¶Z. Poznyak           40,000                    January 11 
¶S. Skrebets          35,000                    January 12 
 
Despite already meeting the 100,000 signature requirement, both 
Kozulin and Milinkevich's campaign teams vow not to stop 
collecting signatures until they have several hundred thousand 
signatures. 
 
¶3.  To Make the Grade, Sign for Luka! 
 
On January 6, human rights NGO "Charter 97" received letters 
from students at Belarusian State University describing 
instances where university officials strongly encouraged 
students to sign nomination forms in support of Lukashenko 
before they were allowed to take their exams.  Students were 
not required to present their passports as proof of citizenship 
because the dean's office has all students' personal data.  On 
January 9, human rights NGO "Vyasna" reported similar 
occurrences at the private Belarusian Institute for Legal 
Science.  University officials interrupted an exam to announce 
that if the students want to receive good marks, they must sign 
nomination forms in support of Lukashenko.  Post has separately 
heard this from several students as well. 
 
¶4.  Signature Collectors Barred from Passageways, Dormitories 
 
On January 5, signature collectors from presidential hopeful 
Zenon Poznyak claimed that they were chased out of underground 
passageways by police and barred from entering student 
dormitories.  The signature collectors claimed the police cited 
a law banning collection of signatures in underground 
passageways, but never produced a copy of the law.  According 
to a statement by Central Election Commission secretary Nikolai 
Lozovik, collectors may gather signatures anywhere unless it 
obstructs the work of businesses or organizations.  Lozovik 
promised to handle any complaints received from collectors 
within twenty-four hours, but encouraged signature collectors 
to obtain permits from the authorities for signature gathering 
in order to avoid problems in the future. 
 
------------- 
The Campaigns 
------------- 
 
¶5.  Voitovich Drops Out of the Presidential Race 
 
On January 9, independent presidential hopeful Alexander 
Voitovich withdrew from the presidential election race. 
Voitovich accused Lukashenko of deceiving the people and 
stated, "the entire election campaign is being conducted to 
give the impression of the legality of the third term for 
President Lukashenko....I don't want to enable the creation of 
[that] illusion for the electorate."  Voitovich also described 
unfair campaign practices committed by Lukashenko including 
closing independent media sources and denying opposition 
candidates access to state-run media. 
 
¶6.  Opposition Leaders Encourage Use of "Popular Vote" Tactic 
to Reveal Election Fraud 
 
On Janaury 11, former presidential candidate Aleksandr 
Voitovich endorsed presidential hopeful Zenon Poznyak's idea of 
using a "popular vote" to reveal vote rigging.  The plan 
encourages opposition voters to submit a fake ballot on 
election day with their chosen candidate's name written on it 
and to take the original ballot with them.  The opposition 
voters should then fill out the original ballots and submit 
them to an independent agency who will then accurately reveal 
the number of votes for the opposition members. [Note: Removing 
the original ballot on election day means that actual votes for 
the opposition will not be included in the GOB's elections 
results, which will further skew the voting results further 
towards a Lukashenko victory.  Likewise, only pro-opposition 
voters would participate, making it useless as a means of 
verifying the official vote.] 
 
¶7.  Election Officials Warn Poznyak's Nomination Group 
 
On January 12, the Central Election Commission (CEC) issued an 
official warning to Poznyak's nomination group for violating 
"early campaigning" laws.  The CEC cited the distribution of 
campaign leaflets by signature collectors as the basis for the 
warning.  Poznyak protested the warning, claiming that the 
leaflets detailed Poznyak's proposal against vote rigging and 
not campaign information about the candidate. 
 
¶8.  MoD Explains Electoral Process to Servicemen 
 
On January 6, Minister of Defense Leonid Maltsev ordered the 
creation of a working group to support the electoral process 
and to increase awareness about the presidential campaign among 
members of the Armed Forces.  The group will ensure the 
integrity of servicemen's voting practices as well as explain 
voting rights and the electoral code to members of the armed 
services and their family members. 
 
¶9.  Skrebets' Nomination Group Denied Access to Candidate 
 
On January 5, the Supreme Court denied Sergey Galagonyuk, the 
head of Sergey Skrebets' campaign team, access to meet the 
imprisoned opposition leader in person or talk to him over the 
phone.  [Note: Skrebets has been in jail since May for charges 
of bribery, fraud and "illegal business activities."] 
According to Belarusian law, only relatives and lawyers may 
talk with people held in custody.  Galagonyuk plans to appeal 
to Lukashenko for help. 
 
---------- 
Harassment 
---------- 
 
¶10. Police Seize 10,000 Milinkevich Calendars 
 
On January 6, police seized 10,800 small calendars with 10+ 
Coalition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's picture on them from 
Belarusian Communist Party activist Valery Rybchenko in the Gomel 
region.  Police stopped Rybchenko's car and took the calendars, 
claiming that the calendars did not have the proper publication 
data printed on them.  Rybchenko claimed that the search was 
illegal.  Two weeks earlier, police from the same area seized 
57,000 holiday cards signed by Milinkevich. 
 
¶11. Milinkevich's Team Faces Threats and Searches 
 
On January 6, police searched Milinkevich nomination team member 
Vladimir Hundar's apartment in Baranovichy and confiscated computer 
equipment they claim is connected to a criminal case from 2000 
involving Hundar.  On January 12, Milinkevich's campaign manager 
Sergei Kalyakin estimated that approximately 60 percent of the 
group's members have already been questioned by authorities or 
threatened with dismissal or expulsion from their educational 
institutions if they continue to collect signatures.  Kalyakin 
reported that already 40 people have resigned their membership. 
Conversely on the same day, pro-Lukashenko presidential hopeful 
Sergey Gaidukevich announced that his signature collection process 
was proceeding smoothly and without serious interference or 
violations by the authorities. 
 
¶12. Kozulin's Campaign Team Reports Numerous Problems 
 
On January 11, Kozulin's nomination group filed another 
complaint with the Central Election Commission.  The complaint 
alleges that the deputy head of the Slutsk city government 
pressured a collector to quit when the collector submitted 
signatures for verification.  The complaint also described 
instances where employees at government run kindergartens were 
threatened with dismissal if they did not sign a nomination 
form in support of Lukashenko.  Kozulin's group claims that 
they have been denied access to student dormitories. 
Separately on January 12, the Brobruisk chapter of Kozulin's 
Social Democratic Party "Hramada" (BSDP) lost its office after 
state authorities cancelled the lease due to dangerous floor 
conditions.  The leasing authorities refused to rent BSDP 
another room in the building. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶13. The following is a brief exchange on January 11 between 
deputy head of the presidential administration, Natalia 
Petkevich, and a journalist after Petkevich explained the 
reasons behind the resignation of Victor Sheiman: 
 
Petkevich: "After the elections, Victor Sheiman will return to 
government work and resume an active role as the secretary of 
the Security Council." 
 
Voice from the audience: "Are you sure that he [Sheiman] will 
want to work for Aleksandr Milinkevich?" 
 
KROL