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SUBJECT: Latest Polling:  Milinkevich Creeps Ahead in Polls, But Not 
Enough To Catch Lukashenko 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  The results of IISEPS' latest polling shows 
that Lukashenko retains high ratings, around 53 percent. 
Opposition support remains low, even for the 10+ opposition 
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich.  Although Milinkevich's 
approval ratings did climb several points to 6.6 percent, a 
growing majority of Belarusians polled support Lukashenko's 
re-election.  Most respondents believe they live better than 
people in Russia and admit that they would like to have 
living conditions similar to those in EU.  However, 60 
percent would choose a closer union with Russia over a union 
with the EU, which is largely due to Belarusians negative 
opinion of the West.  Moreover, respondents showed greater 
support for the political policies of Russian President 
Vladimir Putin and Cuban leader Fidel Castro over those of 
President Bush and Belarus' neighbors, Poland and Lithuania. 
Most respondents continue to believe state-controlled media 
and do not trust independent and foreign news sources. 
While Lukashenko's popularity appears to be significant, it 
still is not an overwhelming as the state media portrays. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. IISEPS polling service gave poloffs results of two 
surveys conducted in November-December (I) and December (II) 
respectively.  Survey I interviewed 1448 people and survey 
II interviewed 1514 people.  Below are the results. 
 
Presidential Support Is High, Opposition Low 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. Fifty-three percent of respondents in survey I believe 
President Lukashenko should be elected to a third term and 
35 percent disagreed.  Fifty-three percent would vote for 
the president and 12.5 percent would vote for an opposition 
candidate. Survey II showed that 49.2 percent of respondents 
would vote in the presidential election, most for 
Lukashenko.  Thirty-eight percent believe it was time to 
give someone else a chance: 
 
"If elections were tomorrow, who would you vote for?" 
 
Survey I                   Survey II 
 
Answer        %            Answer          % 
------       ----          ------         ---- 
Lukashenko   51.2          Lukashenko     52.6 
Milinkevich   3.5          Milinkevich     6.6 
Lebedko        .8          Lebedko         2.4 
 
¶4. Milinkevich's support jumped three percentage points in 
less than one month.  If just Milinkevich and Lukashenko 
were on the ballots, 54.8 percent of respondents in survey 
II would chose Lukashenko, but 18.1 percent would chose 
Milinkevich.  No other opposition leader received as high a 
rating when paired with Lukashenko as did Milinkevich. 
Aleksandr Voitovich, former MP, received 7.3 percent, MP and 
leader of the liberal Democratic Party Sergei Gaidukevich 
received 9.2 percent, leader of the Belarusian Social 
Democratic Party (Gramada) Aleksandr Kozulin received 9.7, 
and General Frolov received 8.6.  If Milinkevich was not 
allowed to be on the presidential ballot, only 8 percent of 
respondents would protest.  Although most respondents showed 
no interest in Milinkevich, 30.9 percent would like more 
information about him and his campaign. 
 
¶5. In survey I, 49.5 percent of those polled believe the 
elections would be free and fair whereas 28.9 percent 
disagreed.  Survey II showed similar percentages.  In survey 
II, 42.3 percent of respondents believe that the current 
election codex did not prevent free and fair elections and 
should not be changed, however 39.2 percent thought 
otherwise. If election results turned out to be falsified, 
73 percent of respondents in survey I would not take part in 
street protests.  Percentages were approximately the same in 
Survey II. 
 
Human Rights Exist, Sort Of 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. Fifty-three percent of respondents in survey I were 
satisfied with the development of democracy in Belarus 
whereas 34.8 percent were not.  Fifty-nine percent thought 
that Belarus observes human rights, but 75.2 percent believe 
people were afraid to voice their opinions: 
 
"What do you think about the readiness of people in Belarus 
 
to express their political opinions?" 
 
Answer                         % 
------                        ---- 
 
No one is afraid              14.0 
Few people afraid             27.1 
Many people afraid            41.0 
All people afraid              7.2 
 
¶7. When told about opposition leaders Nikolai Statkevich, 
Pavel Severinets, and Andrei Klimov's incarceration for 
staging protests against the GOB, 35 percent of respondents 
in survey II responded negatively to their imprisonment and 
only 16.5 percent were in favor.  Thirty-four percent had no 
opinion on the matter. 
 
Standard of Living 
------------------ 
 
¶8. The two surveys indicated that 58 and 60 percent of 
respondents (respectively) did not see any difference in 
their material situation within the last three months. 
Survey II indicated that 38 percent of respondents were 
concerned with material needs, such as money and the low 
standard of living.  Eighteen percent worry about health and 
14 percent were concerned with unemployment.  Survey II 
showed that 48.5 percent of respondents were able to buy 
enough food on their wages, but 47.6 percent found it 
difficult to afford clothes and 79.6 percent were not able 
to make larger purchases, such as cars and furniture.  In 
survey I, respondents compared the standard of living in 
Belarus with that of other former USSR countries: 
 
Country        Higher    Same    Lower 
-------        ------    ----    ----- 
 
Poland         55.0(%)   14.1     6.6 
Latvia         42.4      14.0    10.5 
Lithuania      40.5      15.5    10.9 
Russia         21.7      35.4    24.5 
Ukraine         4.2      21.9    55.1 
 
¶9. In survey I, 55.7 percent of respondents believe it was 
important to maintain the current situation in Belarus and 
survey II showed 54.6 percent of respondents answered 
likewise. 
 
"Do you think the situation in Belarus is developing on the 
right path or the wrong path?" 
 
Answer         Survey I     Survey II 
------         --------     --------- 
 
Right path       62.4          55.0 
Wrong path       20.7          29.7 
 
¶10. Although the majority of Belarusians believe their 
country was on the right path, only 35 percent of survey II 
respondents believe Belarus' social-economic situation would 
change in the future, whereas 39 percent believe it would 
not change and 15 percent agreed it would worsen. 
 
Russia over EU 
-------------- 
 
¶11. IISEPS discovered that 48 percent of survey I 
respondents did not want to see a revival of the USSR, but 
did want closer relations with Russia over the EU.  Sixty- 
seven percent of those polled believe they live better than 
Russians, but 51 percent believe people live better in the 
EU than in Belarus.  Sixty-three percent would like to have 
a living standard similar to that in the EU, 81 percent 
favor Belarusians receiving an education in EU, and 64 
percent favor letting Belarusians work in the EU. 
 
¶12. Despite better living and working conditions in the 
West, survey II showed that 60 percent of respondents would 
rather have a union with Russia than with the EU.  This 
phenomenon could be attributed to the negative image 
Belarusians have of the West thanks to GOB-controlled 
propaganda (see para 14).  IISEPS asked the following 
questions in survey I: 
 
"Do you think the West looks at Belarus as an enemy and that 
Belarusians should beware?" 
 
Answer          % 
------         ---- 
No             41.9 
Yes            40.0 
 
"Do you think life for citizens of Belarus' neighbors 
(Poland, Latvia, Lithuania) has improved or worsened since 
they became part of the EU in May 2004?" 
 
Worse          23.7 
No Change      25.2 
Better         19.4 
 
"Have you been to any EU countries in the last five years?" 
 
No             83.0 
Yes            16.8 
 
"What presents a greater threat to Belarus' development? 
(survey II)" 
 
The West       34.2 
The GOB        18.0 
The Opposition 14.6 
Russia          4.1 
No Threat      27.7 
 
¶13. Fifty-two percent of survey I respondents prefer a union 
with Russia in which both governments remain independent 
with close political and economic connections.  Twenty 
percent believe relations should remain the same and only 12 
percent believe the two nations should become one. 
 
"Soon there will possibly be a referendum between Belarus 
and Russia on the Constitutional Act, which would provide a 
closer integration between the two governments.  How would 
you vote?" 
 
Answer         Survey I      Survey II 
------         --------      --------- 
 
For              27.4(%)       41.7 
Against          10.3          11.2 
Depends on 
circumstances    37.2          29.7 
Will not 
participate       8.9          10.8 
 
"In your opinion, which country has made more progress 
creating a democratic government and civil society?" 
 
Answer          % 
------        ---- 
 
Belarus       35.1 
Russia        29.5 
No Answer     35.4 
 
"In your opinion, does the Russian government want Belarus 
to become part of Russia and cease being an independent 
country?" 
 
Yes           46.9 
No            26.5 
No Answer     26.6 
 
"Who will Belarus be closer to in 10 years, Russia or the 
EU?" 
 
Russia        63.1 
EU             8.7 
No Answer     28.2 
 
"Do you accept or not accept the political course of the 
following countries?" 
 
Country       Accept    Not Accept 
-------       ------    ---------- 
Russia         74.8        15.9 
Belarus        72.0        22.3 
Germany        70.8        16.4 
China          53.2        30.3 
Kazakhstan     46.6        36.5 
Poland         46.0        39.1 
Cuba           36.0        45.1 
South Korea    31.6        48.9 
Ukraine        26.9        59.2 
U.S.           25.2        61.7 
Iran           20.4        61.6 
 
"Who out of today's top leaders coincides with your 
political ideals?" (More than one answer) 
 
Lukashenko          51.8 
Putin               51.8 
Chirac              13.1 
Blair                6.4 
Castro               6.2 
Merkel               5.4 
Yushchenko           3.8 
Bush                 3.7 
Frieberg (Latvia)    0.9 
Akhmadinijad (Iran)  0.8 
 
Information Access 
------------------ 
 
¶14. Belarusians have little access to news sources other 
than the state-controlled media.  Although some independent 
sources exist within Belarus, few people listen or trust 
them. 
 
"Which of the following do you have access to at work and/or 
at home?" (More than one answer) 
 
Answer                  Survey I    Survey II 
------                  --------    --------- 
Belarusian TV channels    86.1        86.1 
FM Radio                  46.7        53.2 
Cable TV                  36.9        38.6 
Medium/Long Wave Radio    14.2        15.9 
Internet                  13.6        14.6 
Short Wave Radio          13.2        12.5 
Satellite TV               6.9         8.9 
 
"What source of information do you believe more?" (Survey I) 
 
Answer                            % 
------                           ---- 
GOB-controlled Media             58.2 
Russian Media                    35.2 
Belarusian Independent Media     12.0 
European and Western Media       10.2 
Internet                          8.8 
 
¶15. IISEPS discovered in survey I that fewer than 35 percent 
of respondents use a computer and less than 24.7 percent use 
the internet.  In survey II, those figures were 33.5 and 
22.6 respectively.  Less than ten percent of respondents 
listen to Western radio, such as Radio Liberty, BBC, Voice 
of America, Ukrainian radio, etc.  Fifteen percent listen to 
Russian radio broadcasts daily and 16.3 percent listen to 
Russian radio several times per week.  Forty-nine percent of 
those polled would like to receive independent radio and 
television broadcasts from surrounding countries, but 34 
percent believe foreign radio broadcasts, for example, would 
not portray the truth where as only 25.4 believe it would. 
 
¶16. Forty-five percent of those polled believe GOB- 
controlled TV is truthful about Western activities and how 
people live in the West.  Survey II showed that 64.7 percent 
of respondents trust GOB-controlled TV channel ONT, 60.8 
percent - Belarusian National Television BT, and 44 - 
Stolichnaye TV.  Twenty-five percent do not believe the 
internet, 43 percent do not believe Belarus' independent 
newspapers and 45 percent do not trust Western radio 
broadcasts. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶17. Although Milinkevich's ratings increased, Lukashenko 
still retains a strong lead over any potential opponent. 
Even without election falsifications, Lukashenko would 
theoretically win the elections if they were held tomorrow. 
With the help of his propaganda and lack of independent 
information, Lukashenko continues to successfully convince a 
significant portion of the population that Belarus is better 
off under his rule, despite the better living conditions in 
the EU, and that the West seeks to destroy Belarus' course 
of development. 
 
¶18. The polling results reinforce the point that democratic 
change is not likely in the short term, nor without access 
to independent media.  In the current information vacuum, 
most Belarusians are unable to make the connection between 
their economic situation and the country's political- 
economic policies.  It is also worth noting that despite 
Lukashenko's continued popularity, it is not as overwhelming 
as the state media presents, and the depth of that support 
is suspect if a strong alternative could ever emerge. 
 
KROL