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UNCLAS MINSK 000011 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly III (December 31 - January 6) 
 
 
¶1.  This is the third in a weekly series of election-oriented 
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March 
19, 2006 presidential elections. 
 
------------- 
The Campaigns 
------------- 
 
¶2. Expelled BSU Students Not For Kozulin 
 
Independent online news source Charter 97 posted an article on 
December 30 criticizing opposition presidential candidate 
Aleksandr Kozulin.  According to the article, Kozulin's 
supporters are having difficulties collecting signatures from 
former Belarusian State University (BSU) students who were 
expelled for their political activities while Kozulin was BSU 
rector.  Zubr's press secretary Aleksandr Atroshchankov claimed 
Kozulin's initiative group visited his parents' apartment and 
accused his mother of being anti-democratic after she refused 
to sign the candidate's petition. 
 
¶3. No Complaints 
 
On January 3, secretary of Belarus' Central Election Commission 
(CEC) Nikolai Lozovik claimed that no candidates had submitted 
complaints about the signature collection process during the 
New Year holiday weekend.  Lozovik told reporters that this was 
because the candidates abstained from collecting signatures 
during the holidays as to not disturb the people's 
celebrations. 
 
¶4. Signature Collection Successful 
 
Ten plus presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich on 
January 3 expressed his satisfaction with the start of his 
signature collection campaign.  Several of the gatherers 
collected 70-80 signatures after their first three days, which 
shows the "success" of their door-to-door and street campaign. 
However, campaign leader Sergei Kalyakin noted that not all 
regions had a good start due to poor coordination between 
signature gatherers.  Kalyakin also informed reporters that 
during the New Year, a man dressed as a homeless man was 
soliciting signatures in the name of Milinkevich while being 
filmed by the state media.  Kalyakin called the act the GOB's 
attempt to discredit Milinkevich and plans to ask the Minsk 
prosecutor to open an investigation into the incident. 
 
¶5. Gaidukevich and Voitovich Collect 20,000 Signatures 
 
On January 4, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and MP 
Sergei Gaidukevich announced that he had gathered 20,000 
signatures for his nomination as a presidential candidate 
without GOB interference.  Gaidukevich attributed his success 
to the popularity he received from his 2001 run for president 
and his campaign's human and organizational resources.  Former 
MP Aleksander Voitovich announced on Radio Liberty that he had 
gathered 15,000-18,000 signatures. 
 
-------------------- 
Election Commissions 
-------------------- 
 
¶6. The Makeup of Election Commissions 
 
On December 30, Lozovik announced that political party 
representatives accounted for 2.6 percent of the members of 
territorial election commissions.  The CEC formed 165 
territorial election commissions consisting of 2,124 members; 
roughly 13 people per commission.  Six out of 17 political 
parties have members in the commissions.  These parties include 
the Communist Party of Belarus, the Liberal Democratic Party, 
the Social Sports Party, the Republican Party of Labor and 
Justice, the Belarusian Popular Front, and the Agrarian Party. 
According to Lozovik, 20 percent of the commissions' members 
represent NGOs and were nominated by the pro-government 
Belarusian National Youth Union, trade unions, and women's 
associations.  All of these groups, except the BPF, are pro- 
Lukashenko.  Forty-five percent of the commissions' members 
were nominated via the collection of signatures and 23 percent 
by workers' collectives. Roughly ten percent of the members are 
local government or city council officials, 30 percent are 
employed in the manufacturing, transport/trade, and 
construction sectors, 22.7 percent - civil servants, 12 percent 
- educators, 7 percent - farmers, and 1.5 percent - law 
enforcement officers. 
 
¶7. Brest Election Commissions 
 
Aleksandr Koleda, chairman of the Brest regional election 
commission, announced on December 30 that the CEC formed 22 
territorial election commissions in the Brest region with 284 
members.  Ten members are representatives from the Communist 
Party of Belarus, one from the Liberal Democratic Party, 17 
from the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus, 15 from the 
Belarusian National Youth Union, four from veterans' 
associations and two from the Belarusian Women's Union.  All of 
these groups are pro-Lukashenko.  Koleda claimed that the main 
qualifying criterion for becoming a member of the election 
commissions was previous participation in election campaigns, 
which 90 percent of the members met.  Twenty-eight commissions 
were formed in the Gomel region, 29 in the Vitebsk region, 21 
in the Grodno region, 27 in the Minsk region, 28 in the 
Mogilyov region, and 10 in the city of Minsk. 
 
¶8. Opposition Opposes CEC Commission Results 
 
Leader of the Belarusian Party of Communists and chair of 10+ 
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich's campaign Sergei Kalyakin 
accused the authorities of trying to conduct a nontransparent 
and unfair presidential election.  According to Kalyakin, only 
one out of the 2,124 territorial commission members represented 
a pro-democratic party, the Belarusian Popular Front (BPF). 
Kalyakin's party allegedly nominated 70 people and the United 
Civic Party (UCP) nominated 38, but none were selected. 
According to UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko, the commissions are 
proof that the GOB does not plan to hold free elections.  Head 
of the BPF legal department, Vladimir Labkovich, called the 
incident a recurrence of the 2001 presidential race and the 
2004 parliamentary elections. 
 
¶9. Only Election Commissions and Trade Unions Use Donations 
 
On January 3, Lukashenko signed a decree allowing trade unions 
and electoral commissions to use donated funds.  In December, 
the President signed amendments to Decree 300 that granted 
institutions and private entrepreneurs permission to give 
funds, property, and ownership rights to trade unions and their 
branches and election commissions.  Trade unions and NGOs, 
except political parties, have the right to give their members 
welfare benefits in the form of money and property, as long as 
its value does not exceed USD 135.  Trade unions can use 
gratuitous aid for health and recreational activities. 
 
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Harassment 
---------- 
 
¶10. A Six-Hour Detainment 
 
Beloozyorsk police on December 29 detained Vladimir Kozeko, 
regional head of Milinkevich's campaign team, in the Ivanovo 
district for six hours.  Kozeko arrived in Beloozyorsk to receive 
CEC-issued IDs for members of Milinkevich's team who would be 
collecting ballot-access signatures.  As Kozeko was leaving town, 
police officers stopped him, ransacked his car, and seized 800 
copies of the independent newspaper Narodnaya Volya.  After 
spending six hours at the local police station, Kozeko was 
released, but the newspapers were not returned.  Yury Gubarevich, 
head of Milinkevich's Brest campaign team, linked Kozeko's 
detention to President Lukashenko's December 30 visit to the city. 
 
¶11. 2005 A "Tough" Year 
 
Youth activist Boris Goretsky on December 30 commented that 2005 
was a "tough and active" year for Belarus' opposition youth 
movements.  According to Goretsky, the police and secret service 
watched socially and politically active youths more closely and 
many were jailed and/or expelled from school.  Young opposition 
activists successfully staged several protests despite the 
oppression and the arrests of prominent figures, such as Malady 
Front leader Pavel Severinets.  Goretsky stated that the youth were 
actively involved in the pro-democratic effort to select and 
promote a challenger to Lukashenko in March. 
 
¶12. Social Unrest Possible 
 
Goretsky on January 3 predicted that the GOB's oppressive policies 
might cause social unrest in 2006.  The amendments to the Criminal 
Code, the increased control of the internet, the closure of 
independent media, and the persecution of activists could lead to 
tensions ahead of the March presidential elections.  Goretsky 
opined that many youth activists were ready to defend their rights 
and vote against Lukashenko.  According to Goretsky, more people 
were joining youth groups and several new chapters have appeared in 
small towns.  The activist claimed that falsified elections could 
result in unpredictable consequences. 
 
------------- 
Miscellaneous 
------------- 
 
¶13. Use Belarusian Please! 
 
On January 2, leader of the Francisak Skaryna Belarusian 
Language Society (BLS) Oleg Trusov urged all presidential 
candidates to use the Belarusian language in their campaigns. 
According to Trusov, the BLS would speak out against any 
attempts to reduce the use of Belarusian in favor of Russian. 
 
¶14. No Coup d'Etat Within GOB 
 
During a January 4 interview, Voitovich commented that he did 
not believe an active opposition block existed among the 
nomenclature.  He claimed that he has friends within the GOB 
who would like to see a change of government, but a coup d'etat 
was impossible.  According to Voitovich, this was due to lack 
of strength within the country to oppose and change the 
government and that no opposition leader was strong enough to 
lead the country.  The nomenclature knows this, and therefore, 
prefers to provide for their families rather than lose their 
jobs. 
 
------------------ 
Quotes of the Week 
------------------ 
 
¶15. Head of the BPF's legal department Vladimir Labkovich's 
response to the results of the territorial commissions and the 
lack of opposition representation: 
 
"In these conditions it is impossible to monitor the voting 
process, it would be [more] logical for the authorities to 
immediately declare Lukashenko the winner rather than conduct 
the election at all." 
 
 
PHLIPOT