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UNCLAS HELSINKI 000016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL FI
SUBJECT: HALONEN PRESSES TOWARD A FIRST ROUND VICTORY 
 
REF: A. 2005 HELSINKI 1296 
 
     ¶B. HELSINKI 8 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: If the most recent polls are true and if 
voter turnout among women is as high as expected, Tarja 
Halonen will become the first Finnish presidential candidate 
in history to win election in the first round.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The first round of Finland's presidential election 
will take place on January 15, and the two most recent polls 
have renewed the Social Democratic Party's (SDP) hopes that 
its candidate, incumbent President Tarja Halonen, will win an 
outright majority.  When elected in 2000, Halonen became the 
first Finnish woman to win the presidency, and she now looks 
to make history again by becoming the first candidate to win 
in the first round.  Halonen's support had dipped in early 
December to 52 percent, according to Finland-Gallup, causing 
many in her party to predict that a second round was likely 
(ref A).  However, a December 31 Finland-Gallup poll showed 
Halonen regaining momentum at 54 percent, with her biggest 
rivals, Center Party (CEN) candidate and current Prime 
Minister Matti Vanhanen and Conservative (CONS) candidate 
Sauli Niinisto polling only 18 and 20 percent, respectively. 
A second poll conducted by Turun Sanomat (the city of Turku's 
respected daily newspaper) showed Halonen winning 56 percent, 
Niinisto 20 percent, and Vanhanen 16 percent.  The same polls 
predicted that 63-64 percent of women would vote for Halonen, 
along with 46-48 percent of men. 
 
¶3. (U) Despite Halonen's apparent resurgence, pundits from 
all quarters have long cautioned that a round one victory 
depends on high turnout, especially from women.  SDP 
activists have worked hard to get out the vote, and Halonen 
has taken to closing most of her public appearances by simply 
emphasizing the importance of voting, regardless of whom one 
supports.  Cautious SDP strategists point out that when 
Halonen won in 2000, prominent female politicians from all 
parties publicly broke ranks and urged women to go to the 
polls and elect Finland's first female president;  this 
phenomenon has not occurred in 2006, forcing the SDP to do 
the legwork itself. 
 
¶4. (U) And at this early stage, the SDP's efforts appear to 
be paying off.  According to the same Turun Sanomat poll, 
some 88 percent of Finnish voters intend to vote in the first 
round; that figure is not unheard of, but by historical 
standards it is still considered quite high.  In practice, 
prediction for a high turnout already shows signs of proving 
accurate.  On January 4, a handful of selected polling 
stations opened nationwide for early voting, as occurs during 
all national elections.  Turnout was, indeed, particularly 
high, with more than 250,000 voters -- better than 6 percent 
of the electorate -- casting ballots on the first day. 
According to a Ministry of Justice press release, this 
represents a new record.  Early polls close on January 10, 
and the bulk of voting will occur on January 15.  Should 
current trends continue, a first round win for Halonen now 
appears likely. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment: Symbolism aside, the local excitement over 
a potential first round win really means little, given the 
fact that all polls show Halonen handily defeating either 
Niinisto or Vanhanen (by margins of greater than 20 
percentage points) should a second round become necessary. 
In addition, public support for Halonen is clearly personal, 
not party-based;  support for the SDP as a whole has not 
risen measurably, and the party is unlikely to gain any 
special benefits from Halonen's coattails in the March 2007 
parliamentary contests.  As for US interests, the president's 
re-election also will result in few, if any, changes. 
Finland under Halonen will remain a largely cooperative and 
reliable partner on most issues of importance to us;  Halonen 
has emphasized during the campaign the importance of good 
relations with the US (albeit partly in response to local 
criticisms of her handling of those relations during her 
first term - see ref B).  Her victory, be it in the first or 
second round, should do nothing to diminish the generally 
very positive tenor of the bilateral relationship.  End 
Comment. 
HYATT