VZCZCXRO3882
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0222/01 0270744
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270744Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0640
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 0419
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 000222 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR VM
SUBJECT: Party's 13th Plenum Finalizes Party Documents, 
Makes Only Minor Headway on Personnel Decisions 
 
Ref: A) 05 Hanoi 2967; B) Hanoi 11; C) Hanoi 30; D) 05 
 
HCMC 1155 
 
HANOI 00000222  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment:  Able to decide only on a 
"long list" of possible candidates for the next Central 
Committee, participants in the Communist Party of 
Vietnam's 13th Plenum have put off to a 14th and final 
plenum the ultimate decision on Central Committee 
membership.  At the plenum, a number of current high- 
level Party officials reportedly received few votes of 
confidence for retaining their membership in the 
Central Committee.  Key Party documents and proposed 
changes to Party Statutes were also discussed and 
approved.  Although rumors abound about possible senior 
leadership changes, it is still too early to tell who 
will be in or out.  The upcoming Tet Lunar New Year 
holiday -- at which senior Party leaders meet to 
exchange greetings -- will likely be the occasion to 
make important personnel decisions.  End Summary and 
Comment. 
 
No Decision On Next Central Committee Lineup 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Central Committee of the Communist Party 
of Vietnam (CPV) met January 11-18 to review candidates 
for the next Central Committee, which will be approved 
and launched by this spring's National Party Congress. 
Senior Colonel Tran Nhung, former chief of the 
international affairs division of "Quan Doi Nhan Dan" 
(People's Army) newspaper, told us that participants in 
the 13th Plenum tried but failed to approve a short 
list of candidates to the next Central Committee.  They 
instead reached consensus on a "long list" of 280 
possible candidates, which will be reviewed during the 
14th (and final) Plenum, reportedly scheduled for 
February 15.  Of these 280, the current Central 
Committee will certify a list of some 190 persons (160 
full-time members and some 20-30 alternates without 
voting rights).  This list will be forwarded to the 
Party Congress for its imprimatur.  Although no firm 
date has been set, the word on the street is that the 
Congress will be held in April. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Nhung noted that the CPV usually convenes only 
thirteen plenums during a five-year term of a 
particular Central Committee.  However, because they 
foresaw possible difficulties in nailing down personnel 
decisions, participants in the 12th Plenum agreed that 
there would be one more (14th) plenum right before the 
Party Congress.  This additional plenum and the time it 
allows for further discussions will hopefully avoid 
possible Party "disability" ahead of the Congress, 
Nhung explained. 
 
¶4. (SBU) According to Vietnam History Institute 
Director Ngo Van Hoa, retiring Central Committee 
members often have some surprises in store when it 
comes to the debate on who will remain in the new 
Central Committee.  Those facing the end of their 
political careers have more courage to speak their 
"real thoughts."  Based on the last two terms of the 
Central Committee, around one-third of the current 
membership will be replaced, Hoa predicted. 
 
Leadership Changes:  Scenarios abound 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Local observers have claimed that Party 
progressives, particularly southerners, support a Party 
leadership change scenario in which HCMC Party 
Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet replaces current CPV 
 
SIPDIS 
General Secretary Nong Duc Manh, with Manh becoming 
State President and Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan 
rising to the post of Prime Minister.  Conservative 
elements, on the other hand, reportedly would like to 
see CPV Personnel and Organization Commission chief 
Tran Dinh Hoan become the Party Secretary or State 
President. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Describing one "progressive scenario," the 
History Institute's Hoa noted that the 13th Plenum 
again stipulated that Politburo members should not be 
older than 65 years of age.  This means that only six 
of the current 14 Politburo members are eligible for 
continued service.  They are:  Party Secretary Nong Duc 
Manh, HCMC Party Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet, Hanoi 
Party Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, Standing Deputy Prime 
 
HANOI 00000222  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung, CPV Economics Commission 
chief Truong Tan Sang and Minister of Public Security 
Le Hong Anh.  Of them, HCMC Party Secretary Triet is 
apparently being strongly backed by the Party's 
"progressive faction," which includes former Prime 
Minister Vo Van Kiet, to be the new Party General 
Secretary, Hoa said.  (A contact close to Kiet told 
 
SIPDIS 
ConGen HCMC January 27 that the Party tradition that 
the General Secretary hail from the north, the 
President from the center and the Prime Minister from 
the south is not a factor in ongoing Party personnel 
deliberations.  A second contact in HCMC derided Nong 
Duc Manh and was more optimistic in a recent meeting 
about prospects for the Kiet wing of the Party to 
prevail in both policy and personnel decisions.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Elaborating on Triet's progressive 
credentials, Hoa reported that, at the recent HCMC 
Party Congress, Triet supported certain aspects of 
"political change."  For example, he bucked Party norms 
by allowing free nominations, as well as self- 
nominations, to key Party positions.  He also refused 
to put forward names endorsed by the CPV Commission for 
Personnel and Organization.  Such "political change" 
must have been strongly supported by former Prime 
Minister Kiet, who himself has reportedly demanded free 
nominations to key Party positions during past Party 
Congresses.  (Note:  Last October, local observers 
noted with interest a letter reportedly written by 
Kiet, in which he criticized the current system of 
personnel nominations and selection; that is, Party 
Congress delegates merely rubber stamp decisions 
already made by the Politburo and Central Committee. 
Kiet claimed that this made the Politburo too powerful, 
which violates Party Statutes.  Kiet also said that he 
had attended seven Party Congresses since 1951, and 
that only the 2nd Party Congress in 1951 was conducted 
in a "truly democratic manner."  End Note.) 
 
Another Version 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Ngo Cuong, Editor-in-Chief of the Supreme 
People's Court-affiliated Judicial Journal, quoted his 
boss and mentor, Supreme People's Court Presiding 
Justice (and Central Committee member) Nguyen Van Hien, 
as saying that at least half of the current 14 
Politburo members are expected to step down following 
the Party Congress, including State President Tran Duc 
Luong, National Assembly Chairman Nguyen Van An, 
Central Committee Secretariat Standing Member Phan Dien 
and perhaps even Party Personnel and Organization 
Commission chief Tran Dinh Hoan.  However, the reason 
for this large-scale retirement would not be age but 
the results of the 13th Plenum's "vote of confidence" 
on possible candidates for the next Central Committee. 
State President Tran Duc Luong received a surprisingly 
low vote of confidence of only nine percent.  Phan Dien 
received less than 20 percent, while Tran Dinh Hoan 
himself came in with only 19 percent.  Party Chief Nong 
Duc Manh wound up with a 64 percent vote of confidence, 
Hien reported. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Hien also asserted that Central Committee 
members who attended the 13th Plenum had "shown 
courage," and that the Plenum was conducted in a 
"democratic manner."  Given the results of the vote, it 
is likely that a number of current members of the 
Central Committee will have no chance of remaining for 
the next Central Committee, Hien said.  However, 
"nobody knows for sure what will happen."  That said, 
it seems certain that Prime Minister Phan Van Khai, 
Defense Minister Pham Van Tra and CPV Ideology and 
Culture Commission Chief Nguyen Khoa Diem are preparing 
to retire, Hien added. 
 
Party Documents 
--------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Speaking at the closing session of the 13th 
Plenum, Party Chief Nong Duc Manh said the Politburo 
would soon publish the Political Report for comments 
from Party members as well as citizens.  The Political 
Report is expected to confirm two changes to the Party 
Statutes that were agreed upon by Central Committee 
members.  They are: 1) Party members are allowed to 
conduct private economic activities without any 
limitations on size (and entrepreneurs are allowed to 
 
HANOI 00000222  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
become Party members); and, 2) The CPV is the vanguard 
of the working class as well as the Vietnamese people 
and nation (as opposed to the current version, which is 
merely the working class). 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment:  While the conventional wisdom 
agrees that PM Khai, Defense Minister Tra and Party 
Ideology/Culture Commission chief Diem will probably 
retire, our contacts' versions of possible leadership 
changes are merely two of several scenarios currently 
being discussed, rumored or rejected.  For example, 
another rumored scenario has President Luong, National 
Assembly Chairman An and Party General Secretary Manh 
switching positions among themselves.  It is simply 
still too early to tell what will happen.  In fact, the 
upcoming Tet Lunar New Year holiday -- during which 
senior CPV leaders will visit each other's homes for 
new year's greetings and drinking bouts -- will likely 
be the occasion to debate and ultimately decide on 
senior CPV personnel changes.  End Comment. 
 
BOARDMAN