This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DJIBOUTI 000077 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF 
STATE PASS USAID 
USAID FOR OFDA/ECARP 
NAIROBI FOR REDSO AND OFDA 
PARIS FOR OECD 
ROME FOR FAO 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID ECON EINV EAGR DJ
SUBJECT:  DJIBOUTI AND FOOD SECURITY 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. REDSO/FFP OFFICER TRAVELED TO DJIBOUTI 3-8 NOVEMBER, MET WITH 
WFP, UNHCR AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, AND TRAVELED TO DIKHIL AND 
TADJOURAH DISTRICTS TO ASSESS FOOD SECURITY CONDITIONS IN THE 
COUNTRYSIDE. 
 
¶2. DUE TO SUCCESSIVE SCANTY RAINFALL SEASONS AND INCREASED 
MARKET PRICES, THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION OF DJIBOUTIANS IS 
POOR - THOUGH NOT CURRENTLY AT A CRITICAL LEVEL - WITH 
INCREASING STRESS ON PASTORALISTS AS WELL AS ON URBAN DWELLERS. 
WFP WILL EXTEND ITS EMERGENCY OPERATION (EMOP) THROUGH MARCH 
2006, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A PROTRACTED RELIEF 
AND RECOVERY OPERATION (PRRO). WFP PLANS A JOINT FOOD SECURITY 
ASSESSMENT IN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE 
YEAR IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY AND QUANTIFY NEXT YEAR'S PROPOSED PRRO. 
 
¶3. THE OFFICIAL REFUGEE POPULATION IN DJIBOUTI NOW STANDS AT 
AROUND 9,600 PEOPLE (THOUGH IS BELIEVED TO BE ACTUALLY 
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER) IN TWO CAMPS, DOWN FROM 15,600 IN THREE 
CAMPS DURING OUR LAST VISIT IN APRIL. UNHCR NOW HOPES TO 
REPATRIATE APPROXIMATELY 4,000 MORE PEOPLE TO SOMALILAND BEFORE 
THE END OF THE YEAR, AND IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE GRD TO CLOSE 
HOLL-HOLL CAMP. WFP CONTINUES TO PROVIDE HALF RATIONS TO 
REFUGEES IN ORDER TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT MOMENTUM OF VOLUNTARY 
REPATRIATION, CONSIDERING ALSO THAT CASELOAD NUMBERS ARE QUITE 
INFLATED AND THAT THE REFUGEES HAVE NOT ALLOWED THEMSELVES TO BE 
COUNTED SINCE 1997. 
 
¶4. REDSO/FFP AND USAID/DJIBOUTI RECOMMEND THAT FFP CONTRIBUTE 
$750,000 TO THE WFP/DJIBOUTI EMOP, ON THE UNDERSTANDING THAT 
PART OF THIS CONTRIBUTION WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE SUCCESSOR 
PRRO IN APRIL. WE DO NOT RECOMMEND A CONTRIBUTION TO THE REFUGEE 
PRRO AT THIS TIME, THOUGH DO BELIEVE THAT AN ADDITIONAL $750,000 
MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN FY 2006 TO RESPOND TO SHORTFALLS IN 
BOTH THE REFUGEE PRRO AND THE UPCOMING DROUGHT-AFFECTED PRRO. 
END SUMMARY 
 
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DJIBOUTIAN FOOD SECURITY SITUATION: FIELD VISITS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶5. THE CURRENT FOOD SECURITY SITUATION OF RURAL DJIBOUTIANS IS 
POOR, BUT NOT CRITICAL - RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE FOUND IN 
APRIL. WHILE DJIBOUTI COULD NEVER BE DESCRIBED AS LUSH - WITH 
LESS THAN 150 MM AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL - PASTORALISTS ARE 
DEPENDENT ON THESE MINIMAL RAINS TO SUSTAIN THEIR LIVESTOCK WITH 
WATER AND PASTURE. ACCORDING TO FEWS, THE RECENT KARAN RAINS 
WERE POORLY DISTRIBUTED, AND CURRENT COASTAL XEYS/DADA RAINS 
HAVE BEEN DELAYED. SUCCESSIVE POOR RAINFALL SEASONS HAVE 
INCREASED STRESS ON PASTORALISTS SEARCHING FOR WATER AND 
PASTURE. 
 
¶6. IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO FEWSNET, BECAUSE OF FUEL PRICE 
INCREASES, OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS THE COST OF ESSENTIAL FOOD 
AND NON-FOOD ITEMS HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, HAVING A 
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE FOOD SECURITY OF BOTH RURAL AND URBAN 
POOR HOUSEHOLDS. AS A RESULT, CASUAL LABOR OPPORTUNITIES ARE 
ALSO EXPECTED TO DECLINE, FURTHER REDUCING INCOME AND FOOD 
ACCESS FOR POOR URBAN HOUSEHOLDS. WFP IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING 
EMERGENCY FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS TO AROUND 47,500 DROUGHT-AFFECTED 
PEOPLE IN THE RURAL DISTRICTS FOR A SIX-MONTH PERIOD. 
 
¶7. IN DIKHIL DISTRICT, REDSO/FFP VISITED YEBOKI AND HANLAY 
VILLAGES. WFP DISTRIBUTES GENERAL RATIONS TO 44 LOCALITIES IN 
THE DISTRICT, AS WELL AS FOOD TO 11 SCHOOLS. DIKHIL PASTORALISTS 
NOTED THAT THE PASTURE AND WATER SITUATION WAS NOW MORE 
DIFFICULT 
FOLLOWING TWO POOR YEARS IN A ROW, WITH A NUMBER OF REPORTED 
ANIMAL 
DEATHS - MAINLY GOATS AND YOUNG CAMELS. FUEL FOR THE VILLAGE 
BOREHOLE, HOWEVER, RATHER THAN FOOD, WAS AT THE TOP OF THEIR 
NEEDS 
LIST. 
 
¶8. IN TADJOURAH, THE SITUATION WAS REPORTED TO BE MORE DIFFICULT 
IN LESS-ACCESSIBLE INLAND COMMUNITIES OF DORRA AND THE LAKE 
ASSAL AREA, THOUGH THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF A MAJOR CRISIS. 
TADJOURAH HOSPITAL WAS JUST OPENING A THERAPEUTIC FEEDING 
CENTER, WITH SUPPORT FROM WFP, AND HAD NOT SEEN LARGE NUMBERS OF 
MALNOURISHED CHILDREN TO DATE. HOWEVER, THEY THOUGHT THAT ONCE 
THE FEEDING PROGRAM BEGAN RUNNING, MORE CHILDREN WOULD ARRIVE. 
 
¶9. WFP DISTRIBUTES FOOD TO 10,000 DROUGHT-AFFECTED PEOPLE IN 
TADJOURAH DISTRICT, THOUGH LOCAL OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN CLAMORING 
FOR SUPPORT TO SOME 16,000 PEOPLE - EVEN THOUGH THE ORIGINAL 
FIGURE HAS BEEN THOUGHT TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER EVEN THAN THE 
ACTUAL RURAL POPULATION. WFP WILL CONTINUE USING THE INITIAL 
FIGURES, BEING EXTREMELY WARY OF THE EXAGGERATED POPULATION 
NUMBERS, AND BELIEVES IT NEEDS TO BEGIN PHASING OUT THE GENERAL 
DISTRIBUTIONS SINCE THEY ARE NOT CRITICALLY NEEDED. 
 
¶10. WFP BEGAN DISTRIBUTING GENERAL RATIONS IN SEPTEMBER, AND 
PEOPLE NOTED THAT THEY WERE BEING SHARED WITH OTHERS IN THE 
COMMUNITIES, ENDING UP WITH JUST A FEW KG PER PERSON. HOWEVER, 
WHEN PEOPLE WERE QUESTIONED ABOUT THE "INSUFFICIENT" FOOD 
QUANTITIES, THEY COMPLAINED MAINLY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SUGAR 
RATHER THAN OTHER COMMODITIES. 
 
¶11. ALTHOUGH MANY (IN FACT, VIRTUALLY ALL) RURAL FAMILIES 
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM THEIR RELATIVES IN DJIBOUTI 
CITY, THERE ARE SOME CHRONICALLY VULNERABLE IN THE VILLAGES WHO 
REMAIN IN NEED. IN ADDITION, WITH THE CURRENT FOOD SECURITY 
SITUATION FOR RURAL DJIBOUTIANS BECOMING MORE FRAGILE, THERE HAS 
BEEN SUBSTANTIAL PASTORAL MIGRATION TO ETHIOPIA (MOSTLY 
SEASONAL) AS WELL AS TO DJIBOUTI CITY TO SEEK WORK AND FOOD. 
GIVEN THE RISES IN FOOD AND NON-FOOD PRICES, THERE IS CLEARLY A 
NEED TO ASSESS THE CITY AS WELL TO DETERMINE URBAN FOOD SECURITY 
CONDITIONS. 
 
¶12. WFP/DIKHIL STAFF WERE VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE AND INFORMATIVE, 
AND NOTED THE DIFFICULTIES OF GENERAL DISTRIBUTION ESPECIALLY 
REGARDING POPULATION NUMBERS, SUGGESTING THAT FOCUSING ON 
NUTRITION AND FFW COULD BE A BETTER ALTERNATIVE TO GENERAL 
DISTRIBUTIONS. WFP/TADJOURAH STAFF HOWEVER WERE SOMEWHAT WEAKER 
THAN THEIR COLLEAGUES IN DIKHIL, PARROTING COMMUNITY REQUESTS 
FOR 50% POPULATION INCREASES IN THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION WITHOUT 
ANY SOLID ASSESSMENT OR ANALYSIS. 
 
¶13. WFP PLANS A JOINT FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT WITH FEWS, UNICEF 
AND THE GRD IN DECEMBER. WHILE MOST OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THE 
SITUATION REMAINS SERIOUS, THE MORE DIFFICULT ISSUES WILL BE 
POPULATION NUMBERS, TARGETING APPROACH AND THE SITUATION OF 
URBAN DWELLERS. DJIBOUTI'S FIRST EVER MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ARE 
SCHEDULED FOR DECEMBER, ADDING WHAT IS HOPED WILL BE A LEVEL OF 
BETTER ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE TARGETING PROCESS. FOR NOW, 
HOWEVER, THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS WFP NEEDS TO ANSWER ARE: HOW 
MANY PEOPLE ARE MOST AFFECTED AND CHRONICALLY VULNERABLE; AND 
HOW CAN IT BEST TARGET THEM? 
 
¶14. IF THE COASTAL XEYS/DADA RAINS FAIL OCTOBER-FEBRUARY, 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SERIOUS. BASED ON THE UPCOMING JOINT 
ASSESSMENT IN DECEMBER, WFP WILL LIKELY CONVERT ITS EMERGENCY 
OPERATION (EMOP) INTO A PROTRACTED RELIEF AND RECOVERY OPERATION 
(PRRO) BEGINNING IN APRIL. WFP PLANS TO USE THE ASSESSMENT TO 
JUSTIFY AND QUANTIFY A PLANNED TWO-THREE YEAR PRRO FOR 
VULNERABLE DJIBOUTIANS, PHASING OUT GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND 
PHASING IN FOOD-FOR-WORK ACTIVITIES AND MORE TARGETED SUPPORT TO 
VULNERABLE PEOPLE IN RURAL AND POSSIBLY URBAN AREAS OF THE 
COUNTRY. 
 
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REFUGEE STATUS 
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¶15. THE RELATIVELY SMALL DJIBOUTI REFUGEE CASELOAD HAS OVER THE 
YEARS BEEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST HEADACHES PER CAPITA WORLDWIDE, 
WITH REFUGEES REFUSING TO BE COUNTED SINCE 1997 AND REPATRIATION 
MOVEMENT SLOW. HOWEVER, UNHCR IN THE LAST TWO YEARS HAS HELPED 
GREATLY IN BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR REPATRIATION, WITH WFP'S RATION 
CUTS SINCE MARCH THIS YEAR PLAYING A LARGE SUPPORTING ROLE. 
¶16. REFUGEE NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 9,600 PEOPLE FROM 15,600 
IN APRIL, AND AOUR AOUSSA CAMP WAS CLOSED IN MID-2005 - DUE TO 
UNHCR'S REPATRIATION PUSH, AS WELL AS TO WFP'S RATION CUTS. 
UNHCR IS NOW PLANNING TO REPATRIATE APPROXIMATELY 4,000 MORE 
REFUGEES TO SOMALILAND BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A 
PLAN TO CLOSE HOLL-HOLL CAMP IN THE COMING MONTHS, AND THE NEW 
UNHCR REPRESENTATIVE IS BEGINNING NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GRD ON A 
TARGET DATE. THAT SAID, CURRENT INSTABILITY IN ETHIOPIA IS NOT 
ADDING ANY URGENCY TO CAMP CLOSURE AT THE MOMENT. 
 
¶17. REFUGEE NUMBERS HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO 
ASCERTAIN, AND UNHCR/WFP ESTABLISHED JOINTLY EARLIER THIS YEAR 
THAT HALF RATIONS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE PROVIDED UNLESS A 
REVALIDATION EXERCISE COULD TAKE PLACE. WFP HOWEVER CONTINUES 
ITS SUPPORT TO SUPPLEMENTARY AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING CENTERS IN 
THE CAMPS. 
 
¶18. WFP HAS NOW ALREADY MAINTAINED 50% REFUGEE RATIONS FOR THE 
PAST EIGHT MONTHS. THE MEDICAL NGO AMDA HAS CONDUCTED MONTHLY 
NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENTS WITH WFP, AND NOTED NO ADVERSE EFFECTS 
FROM THIS REDUCTION, DUE LIKELY TO WHAT ARE BELIEVED TO BE 
SIGNIFICANTLY EXAGGERATED OFFICIAL REFUGEE NUMBERS. WFP AND AMDA 
OF COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NUTRITIONAL SITUATION IN 
THE CAMPS. 
 
¶19. THE NEW UNHCR/DJIBOUTI REPRESENTATIVE, DILLAH DOUMAYE, IS 
NOW FOCUSED (CORRECTLY IN OUR VIEW) ON REPATRIATION RATHER THAN 
ON A REVALIDATION EXERCISE, AND VOLUNTARY REPATRIATES TO 
RELATIVELY-SAFE SOMALILAND HAVE INCREASED THIS YEAR, PARTIALLY 
DUE TO THE REDUCED FOOD RATIONS IN THE CAMPS. IT IS AS YET 
UNCLEAR WHAT STAND HE WILL TAKE ON THE HALF-RATION ISSUE, BUT 
REDSO/FFPO AND UNHCR'S OWN STAFF EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR 
CONTINUATION OF THIS DURING OUR VISIT. WFP HAS NOW DONE THE SAME 
FOLLOWING OUR VISIT. THERE IS CERTAINLY A NEED FOR A CONCERTED 
EFFORT TO MAINTAIN HALF RATIONS IN THE CAMPS AND CONTINUE THE 
REPATRIATION MOMENTUM THAT HAS BEEN BUILT UP OVER THE PAST 
MONTHS. 
 
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WFP PLANS 
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¶20. FFP CONTRIBUTED APPROXIMATELY $1.5 MILLION TO WFP IN FY 
2005, ROUGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN VULNERABLE DJIBOUTIANS AND REFUGEES 
(INCLUDING THE REPATRIATION FOOD PACKAGE). THE PIPELINE FOR THE 
EMOP IS CURRENTLY STRONG, BUT WILL REQUIRE SUPPORT BEFORE ITS 
REMAINING COMMODITIES ARE CARRIED OVER INTO THE NEW PRRO IN 
APRIL. THE REFUGEE PRRO'S PIPELINE IS CURRENTLY RATHER HEALTHY 
(WITH HALF RATIONS) THROUGH MID-2006. 
 
¶21. AT PRESENT, WFP HAS THREE OPERATIONS IN DJIBOUTI: 1) 
DROUGHT-AFFECTED EMOP; 2) COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM SUPPORTING 
SCHOOL AND OTHER INSTITUTIONAL FEEDING; AND 3) REFUGEE PRRO. 
WFP/DJIBOUTI'S NEW COUNTRY DIRECTOR BELIEVES THIS IS TOO MANY 
FOR SUCH A SMALL COUNTRY, AND WFP SHOULD HAVE A SINGLE PRRO FOR 
ALL ITS ACTIVITIES. 
 
¶22. WFP PLANS TO ACHIEVE THIS IN THREE STEPS: FIRST, PHASE OUT 
THE EMOP'S GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS, AND PHASE IN FOOD-FOR-WORK 
ACTIVITIES WITH APRIL'S PRRO. THE DECEMBER FOOD SECURITY 
ASSESSMENT WILL HELP TO JUSTIFY THIS NEW PRRO; SECOND, THOUGH 
STILL IN THE DISCUSSION STAGE, POSSIBLY PUT THE DEVELOPMENT 
PROGRAM INTO THIS PRRO, WHERE THE ACTIVITIES COULD HAVE MORE 
FLEXIBILITY AND LIKELY BETTER FUNDING AS WELL; AND THIRD, END 
THE REFUGEE PRRO BY DECEMBER 2006 OR (IF THE CASELOAD REMAINS 
OVER 5,000 PEOPLE) FOLD IT INTO ONE ALL-ENCOMPASSING PRRO IN 
¶2007. WE THINK THAT WFP'S STREAMLINING PLANS MAKE SENSE FOR SUCH 
A SMALL COUNTRY AND PROGRAM. 
 
¶23. IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE TERM, WFP NEEDS TO CONDUCT A JOINT IN- 
DEPTH FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT, INCLUDING THE URBAN AREAS, AND 
HELP BETTER IDENTIFY POPULATION NUMBERS, TARGETING CRITERIA AND 
MECHANISMS TO REPLACE GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS. 
 
-------------------------- 
CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS 
-------------------------- 
 
¶24. REDSO/FFP AND USAID/DJIBOUTI BELIEVE THAT THE FOOD SECURITY 
DIFFICULTIES IN DJIBOUTI ARE SERIOUS, THOUGH NOT CURRENTLY AT 
CRITICAL LEVELS, AND THAT A JOINT FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT 
COMPRISING FEWS, WFP, UNICEF AND GRD SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN BEFORE 
THE END OF THE YEAR IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY AND QUANTIFY WFP'S 
TRANSITION TO A PRRO FROM ITS CURRENT EMOP. USAID/FFP WILL ALSO 
BE INVOLVED WITH WFP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PRRO. 
 
¶25. WE ADDITIONALLY BELIEVE THAT UNHCR IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT 
DIRECTION BY CONTINUING TO BUILD REPATRIATION MOMENTUM, HAVING 
NOW CLOSED AOUR AOUSSA CAMP AND TRYING TO CLOSE HOLL-HOLL IN THE 
COMING MONTHS. WFP'S HALF RATION HAS LIKELY HAD AN IMPACT IN THE 
REPATRIATION INCREASES, WITH SOMALILANDERS NOW LESS RELUCTANT TO 
RETURN HOME. IN ORDER TO ALLOW THESE REFUGEES TO CONTINUE 
REPATRIATING VOLUNTARILY, WE BELIEVE THAT STRONG INERTIA- 
INDUCING DRAGS TYING THEM TO THE CAMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE 
REMOVED, AND THAT WFP IS FULLY JUSTIFIED IN MAINTAINING THE 
REDUCED REFUGEE RATION. 
 
¶26. THERE WILL BE CONTINUING FOOD SECURITY NEEDS IN DJIBOUTI 
THROUGH 2006, AT LEVELS TO BE DETERMINED IN THE COMING WEEKS AND 
MONTHS. GIVEN THESE CONTINUING NEEDS, AND THAT WFP'S NEW PRRO 
WILL NEED RESOURCES AS SOON AS IT BEGINS IN APRIL, WE RECOMMEND 
THAT FFP IMMEDIATELY PROVIDE $750,000 TO WFP'S CURRENT EMOP, 
WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT PART OF THIS COULD BE CARRIED OVER 
TO THE EMOP'S SUCCEEDING PRRO. 
 
¶27. WE DO NOT RECOMMEND A CONTRIBUTION TO THE REFUGEE PRRO AT 
THIS TIME, THOUGH DO BELIEVE AN ADDITIONAL $750,000 MAY BE 
WARRANTED LATER IN FY 2006 FOR THE REFUGEE PRRO AS WELL AS THE 
UPCOMING DROUGHT-AFFECTED PRRO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND 
REPORT ON THE SITUATION, AND RECOMMEND FURTHER RESOURCES AS 
APPROPRIATE.