VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0212/01 0272059
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 272059Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3250
INFO RHMFIUU/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000212 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION EVO MORALES-U.S.-ARGENTINA, 
PALESTINIAN ELECTIONS, WORLD SOCIAL FORUM-CHAVEZ; 
BUENOS AIRES 01/26/06 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Key stories today focus on the strong U.S. interest in 
Bolivia and President Kirchner's alleged decision to 
play a regional role in moderating Evo Morales; 
election outcomes for Hamas and implications for the 
Middle East peace process, and the World Social Forum 
organized by Chavez in Caracas, with strong 
accusations of manipulating the event to satisfy his 
political goals and promote the government's social 
plans, while lavishly spending public funds on 
publicity. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "U.S. Wink to Uphold Evo Morales" 
 
Jorge Elias, daily-of-record, center-right "La Nacion" 
international analyst, writes (01/26) ".... (During 
his meeting with President Kirchner some days ago) A/S 
Shannon showed the same interest in Bolivia George W. 
Bush had expressed at the Mar del Plata Summit. 
 
"Such interest in the GOA's regional influence led a 
Foreign Ministry source to comment that 'Bolivia is 
our business, more than it is Brazil's.' 
 
".... Kirchner's presence at Morales' inauguration on 
Sunday... wasn't overlooked by the Bush 
administration. 
 
"In La Paz, Shannon expressed to Foreign Minister 
Taiana his satisfaction with the meeting he had had 
with Morales on Saturday... they agreed that one 
wasn't going to give in on the issue of coca 
plantations and the other wasn't going to yield on his 
apprehension vis--vis cocaine. 
 
"Between these extreme positions, according to the 
source, Kirchner felt the need to uphold Morales and, 
at the same time keep Hugo Chavez in check, who's 
tempted to set up a base in the areas where he 
contributed to (Morales') victory. 
 
"At some point, the Bush administration made the 
mistake of engaging Mexico -- a country outside the 
Southern Cone -- with Bolivia, due to its interest in 
importing gas. And it paid a high price for this. 
 
".... Kirchner and Lula, due to their proximity, 
became the umpires of this crisis and guarantors of 
governance. However, Brazil is dependent on a large 
provision of Bolivian gas, a situation that leaves 
Argentina less dependent on energy and in a better 
position to take over - as a priority - Morales' 
eventual success...." 
 
- "Worrying About Evo" 
 
James Neilson, Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires 
Herald" international analyst, says (01/26) ".... 
Morales won big in the elections not just because most 
of his compatriots thought anything would be better 
than more of the same, but also because many 
appreciated that the only way to stop him from 
destroying the next government would be to let him 
head it... Bolivians decided to try putting one of 
their country's most notorious arsonists in charge of 
the fire brigade in the hope it would make him change 
his ways. 
 
".... Like so many other people in this part of the 
world, Morales is fond of berating 'neoliberalism'... 
but simply declaring the beast dead... will not free 
him from the need to get aong with it. For Bolivia to 
progress under his government, he will have to do what 
it takes to create a business-friendly environment by 
improving the legal system, tearing up bureaucratic 
red tape and opening up to the outside world...." 
 
- "From Cairo to Amman, Islamic Groups Move Forward in 
the Ballot Boxes" 
 
Dolores Tereso, daily-of-record, center-right "La 
Nacion" international columnist, opines (01/26) "Most 
likely, this isn't what President Bush had in mind 
 
 
when he launched his democratization campaign in the 
Middle East. 
 
"From the Palestinian territories to Lebanon, and from 
Egypt to Jordan, the progress of democracy in the 
region has led to an undesired effect, at least from 
Washington's viewpoint: instead of upholding moderate 
and pro-West parties, elections are strengthening 
Islamic Fundamentalist groups that are critical of the 
U.S. 
 
"The second place obtained by Hamas yesterday in the 
Palestinian elections is the last example of this 
phenomenon. 
 
".... These Islamic organizations are proposing a 
message of change vis--vis the failure of governments 
that perpetuate themselves in power, but are unable to 
solve the problems of the people. And, in part, 
Washington's policies in the region also seem 
responsible for the strengthening of these groups. 
 
".... By pushing forward democracy (in the Middle 
East) the U.S. risks these radical Islamic groups may 
obtain legitimacy through elections, and turn their 
countries into anti-U.S. theocracies. 
 
"Therefore, Washington faces a dilemma: its support 
for democracy doesn't allow it to ban the 
participation of these organizations - many of them 
even referred to as 'terrorist' -- from elections. 
 
"But there are also those who remember what took place 
in Algeria -- where making the Islamic Salvation Front 
illegal in 1992 led to a civil war -. They believe 
that including these groups in political life is the 
best way to force them to leave violence behind. Once 
they enter politics, they realize that it's better for 
them to drop their weapons. 
 
".... This is what the most optimistic sectors expect 
from Hamas. 
 
".... The major question mark is whether political 
participation may turn these groups into moderate 
parties, respectful of democracy, or if, instead, they 
will follow Iran's steps, where the Islamic regime 
keeps sending disturbing signals to the Western world, 
with its calls to 'destroy' Israel and the resumption 
of its controversial nuclear program. 
 
"There's something Washington must bear in mind: 
albeit with controls in the electoral process, 
Ahmadinejad was also elected in the ballot-boxes." 
 
- "Terror's Internal Battle" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, leading, centrist "Clarin" 
international editor, opines (01/26) "The immediate 
conclusion of these elections, the objective fact, is 
that the terrorist group Hamas obtained more political 
space and importance via the democratic mechanism 
promoted by the White House as the linear solution to 
Middle East calamities. As we know, terrorism results 
from extreme poverty and the lack of a future: a 
contradiction not only fuelled by the Palestinians. 
Therefore, there's another aspect we can't ignore. The 
fact of going to elections generates a rift in Hamas' 
ruthless speech and announces an internal and crucial 
battle within this group. The lack of political 
parties in the Middle East and most Arab countries is 
the reason and cause of the crisis and even of terror. 
A door to the unknown has been opened. Hopefully, it 
won't lead to a dead-end street." 
 
- "A Strategic Change that Triggers Several Political 
Effects" 
 
Telma Luzzani, on special assignment in Jerusalem for 
leading, centrist "Clarin", says (01/26) ".... The 
first thing we must underscore in the Palestinian 
elections is precisely its strict support for the 
broadest rules of democracy. 
 
".... One of the most significant facts is Hamas' 
decision to enter politics. In truth, this 
 
 
organization hasn't automatically abandoned its 
principles by which it doesn't acknowledge the State 
of Israel, or its suicidal attacks as method of 
battle, or the creation of an Islamic State with 
Jerusalem as capital. Perhaps it will never set them 
aside or it may be that, in time, it might change all 
of them. 
 
"But we must also admit that, as a political movement, 
Hamas includes a broad spectrum of hawks and doves. 
Much will depend on the pressures or the international 
aid so that the more moderate lines, the ones that 
pressed to take part in these elections, will prevail 
over those that believe victory can only be achieved 
through weapons. 
 
"Hamas' strategic change has also produced political 
effects. Although the official figures aren't known 
yet and supposedly Al Fatah will maintain its majority 
in Congress, clearly Arafat's party has lost its 
political hegemony forever. The other side of the same 
coin is the appearance of a strong opposition party in 
the political scenario of the Palestinian Authority: 
Reform and Change (Hamas.) 
 
".... In the international field and in its relations 
with Israel, the presence of Hamas is more an obstacle 
rather than a relief for the Palestinians. Due to its 
terrorist actions, both the U.S. and Israel have said 
they won't negotiate with a government in which they 
take part...." 
 
- "Chavez: Spendthrift at World Social Forum" 
 
Conservative, business-financial and political "Ambito 
Financiero" says (01/26) "This week, in Caracas, 
Chavez is exultant with the thousands of Latin 
American leftist activists that are frantically buying 
the merchandising with the Bolivarian leader's image. 
The World Social Forum, which this year moved from 
Porto Alegre to the Venezuelan capital, doesn't count 
on the presence of any Latin American president except 
Chavez, who, in solitude, is harassed by accusations 
of dark deals in the financing of the WSF. 
 
"Chavez's omnipresent figure is denounced by the 
opposition as manipulating the event to satisfy his 
political means. Even Caracas left-wing parties 
distrust him. According to opposition leader Alfredo 
Ramos, from left-wing party Causa Radical, 'This Forum 
is an act organized by the President to project 
himself as a Latin American leader, but using public 
funds.' WSF organizers believe the Venezuelan State 
may have granted 70,000 dollars to finance the event 
via 53 public organizations, but the opposition and 
the press estimate that the event might cost 9 million 
dollars. 
 
".... In addition, the government is taking advantage 
of the event to promote its social plans...." 
 
¶3. To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
The Media Reaction Report reflects articles and 
opinions by the cited news media and do not 
necessarily reflect U.S. Embassy policy or views.  The 
Public Affairs Section does not independently verify 
information.  The report is intended for internal U.S. 
Government use only. 
 
GUTIERREZ