This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004901 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, U.S. 
ARMS PROCUREMENTS 
 
¶1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taiwan dailies focused 
their coverage December 16 on local political issues such as 
the planned Cabinet reshuffle and the race for DPP 
chairmanship in January 2006.  The centrist "China Times" 
and pro-unification "United Daily News" each carried in 
their inside pages the results of their separate poll 
surveys on the race for DPP chairmanship.  The "China Times" 
opinion survey showed that 28 percent of respondents said 
they support Yu Shyi-kun, who resigned Thursday from his 
position as the  Secretary-General of the Presidential 
Office to run for DPP chairman, while 18 percent said they 
believe Vice President Annette Lu is the best candidate for 
the position.  The same poll also showed that President Chen 
Shui-bian's approval rating has dropped to 28 percent while 
55 percent of those polled said they are displeased with 
Chen's performance.  The "United Daily News" poll showed 
similar results for the DPP chairperson race: 40 percent of 
respondents said they support Yu whereas 23 percent said 
they would vote for Lu. 
 
With regard to U.S. arms procurement, the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner 
headline on its page two that quoted Legislative Yuan 
President Wang Jin-pyng as saying: "Bian Agrees to U.S. 
Suggestion to Increase [Taiwan's] Military Spending to 3% of 
GDP." 
 
¶2. Two opinion pieces in the Chinese-language dailies 
discussed the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.  Professor Yang 
Yung-ming of National Taiwan University said in the mass- 
circulated "Apple Daily" that, given the rapid changes in 
U.S.-China relations and cross-Strait relations lately, U.S. 
arms sales to Taiwan is no longer a pure military issue but 
a key factor concerning complicated cross-Strait relations 
and cross-Strait peace.  Professor Chang Ya-chung of 
National Taiwan University, however, questioned the U.S. 
arms deal with Taiwan in the pro-unification "United Daily 
News."  According to Chang, the speed of capital outflow 
from the island will definitely be faster than that of U.S. 
soldiers coming to Taiwan should a war break out across the 
Taiwan Strait.  End summary. 
 
¶1. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Both Cooperation and Conflict Are Seen in the East Asia 
Region" 
 
Yang Yung-ming, professor of political science at National 
Taiwan University, wrote in an opinion piece in the mass- 
circulated "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (12/16): 
 
". The East Asia area also faces two challenges with regard 
to security protection, namely, the competition for power 
between various nations in the region and the flashpoints on 
the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Strait.  The U.S.-China 
relationship and Japan-China relationship are the focus of 
competition for power [in the region].  In the meantime, 
China's rise has re-allocated the power [balance] in the 
region in the economic, diplomatic and energy spheres, thus 
altering the interactions between big nations in the region. 
. 
 
"Following [Taiwan's] presidential and legislative elections 
in 2004, it seems `no news is good news' can best describe 
the current situation across the Taiwan Strait.  The focus 
of cross-Strait relations, however, now lies in the issue of 
[U.S.] arms procurement. . Given Taiwan's democratization 
[process], rapid and substantive changes in the U.S.-China 
relations and cross-Strait relations, and the current East 
Asia environment strongly impacted by China's peaceful 
rising, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is no longer a pure 
military issue but a key factor concerning complicated cross- 
Strait relations and cross-Strait peace.  The arms deal has 
also become a major part of the triangular relationship 
between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. ." 
 
¶2. U.S. Arms Procurement 
 
"[Enhancing the Island's] Military Strength in Order to 
Protect Taiwan?  Capital Outflow Will Be Faster Than U.S. 
Soldiers' Coming to Taiwan [Should a War Break out in the 
Taiwan Strait]." 
 
Chang Ya-chung, professor of political science at National 
Taiwan University, commented in an opinion piece in the pro- 
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] 
(12/16): 
 
"Local newspapers reported that the United States hopes 
Taiwan could increase its annual defense budget to 3% of its 
GDP so that the island will have an additional defense 
budget of NT$50 to 60 billion.  Washington believes that 
this is the only way Taiwan can demonstrate its 
determination and capability to defend itself. .  The United 
States' motive is very clear; what it wants is simply the 
[monetary] sum of Taiwan's purchases to [flow to] the United 
States. . 
 
"Should Taiwan buy weapons to prove the Taiwan people's 
determination to defend the island, or should it use 
political and economic means to safeguard Taiwan?  Should 
any military conflict break out across the Taiwan Strait, 
what else can Taiwan do other than defend itself for two 
weeks?  The speed of globalized capital outflow [from the 
island] will definitely be faster than the arrival of U.S. 
soldiers to Taiwan.  How could Taiwan convince foreign 
businesses to stay on the island if it is constantly under 
the threat of military conflict?  American and European 
firms warn Taiwan about the island's failure to initiate 
direct transportation with China, not its failure to buy 
enough weapons. . 
 
"Let's get to the bottom [of it]. Can Taiwan rely on its 
military strength to safeguard the island's safety?  Can 
Taiwan really and fully trust the United States to protect 
the island?  Can Taiwan's financial status really sustain 
its increasing defense budget?  If all the answers are no, 
then what is the reason behind Taiwan's eagerness to buy 
weapons and increase its national defense budget? . 
 
"Of course we do not deny that Beijing will not easily 
renounce the use of force [against Taiwan], but we must 
understand that Taiwan enjoys a surplus as much as over 
NT$30 billion each year from its trade with China.  The 
mistrust between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can 
still be possibly resolved, and we should no longer blindly 
believe that military strength can be used as a strong 
support.  Just remember that it is Washington's Asia-Pacific 
strategy that [Taiwan should enhance] `its military strength 
to protect the island;' it is not a necessity for Taiwan. ." 
 
PAAL