This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004899 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: INPR PRESIDENT TIEN HUNG-MAO ON 1992 CONSENSUS AND 
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary: The centrist, pro-status quo, Chinese-language 
daily "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] reported Friday 
that Tien Hung-mao, former Foreign Minister and a long-time 
Taiwan independence advocate, suggested the DPP should 
consider accepting the 1992 Consensus in dealing with cross- 
Strait relations.  Full text translation of the story 
follows.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. "Tien Hung-mao: Only by Returning to the `1992 Consensus' 
Can Bian Hold Sway" by Chiang Hui-chen, China Times page 
A13, December 16, 2005. 
 
¶3. "Commenting on how to break the cross-Strait stalemate 
after the pan-Blue camp won a landslide victory in the three- 
in-one elections, former Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao 
urged the DPP government to start cross-Strait negotiations 
and to especially take the initiative or leadership [in this 
endeavor].  In order to do so, it must seriously consider 
`whether to return to the basis of the 1992 consensus.' 
This is because if the KMT becomes the ruling party, the 
KMT's basic cross-Strait policy will be to return to the 
1992 Consensus." 
 
"The China Times Cultural Foundation and the Taipei City 
Government's Department of Cultural Affairs co-sponsored the 
`The Future of Taiwan and the Two Sides Across the Strait' 
seminar yesterday.  Panelists included former Foreign 
Minister and President of the Institute for National Policy 
Research Tien Hung-mao, Taichung City mayor and former 
Foreign Minister Jason Hu, former Mainland Affairs Council 
Chairman Su Chi, and DPP Legislator Lin Cho-hsui.  Tien, who 
has strongly supported Taiwan independence since his younger 
days, boldly suggested that the [Chen Shui-]bian government 
return to the 1992 Consensus.  This made Su Chi respond by 
saying "[I] admire you very much!" 
 
"Tien Hung-mao said he has been advocating Taiwan 
independence since the 1970s when he was a young student. 
In the past 30-some years, he has visited the mainland many 
times, providing close and insightful observations of 
China's changes.  In his view, Chinese President Hu Jintao's 
remarks from his inauguration until now indicate that Hu is 
unlikely a `pro-speedy unification' person.  For Taiwan, 
there is currently no threat of immediate unification. 
Therefore, it would be highly difficult to realize `de jure 
independence' by amending the Constitution." 
 
"Tien believes that the DPP government should think of ways 
to take the initiative or leadership position in cross- 
Strait political talks and negotiations.  To this end, it 
must seriously consider `whether to return to the basis of 
the 1992 consensus.'  This is because if the KMT becomes the 
ruling party, the KMT's basic cross-Strait policy will be to 
return to the 1992 Consensus.  Now [is the time for the DPP 
to decide] whether the DPP wants to take the leading role on 
cross-Strait negotiations." 
 
"Jason Hu used the `traffic light concept' to describe cross- 
Strait relations.  He thinks Taiwan does not want to see 
hostility, rivalry, discrimination and confrontation across 
the Strait.  However, in the areas of national defense, 
military affairs and foreign relations, [there is] a red 
light [flashing] now.  Even after Lien Chan's visit to the 
mainland, China did not relax its restraint on [Taiwan's] 
cross-Strait military and foreign relations.  But cross- 
Strait economic and trade cooperation, investment 
reciprocity, document certification, cultural exchanges, and 
industrial collaboration are all [seeing] the green light 
[now]." 
 
"Hu said Taiwan does not need to push [forward] in the areas 
flashing red.  The government should stop and [consider 
creating] a `yellow light' area.  This requires 
communication, coordination and dialogue.  At least [the 
government] should create an atmosphere, a `yellow light' 
atmosphere, favorable for dialogue.  Then one can hope the 
`green light' will [eventually] appear." 
 
"Regarding the `peaceful rise of China' theory, which has 
attracted much attention around the world, Hu said Americans 
believe China's peaceful rise equates to a military threat. 
Nevertheless, regardless of [China's] rising military 
strength, the most important factor is the mainland's 
economic rise and its ambition to become the world's number 
one market.  The rise of China's economic strength should 
never be ignored in the future." 
 
"Hu believes it will be difficult for Taiwan in the short 
term to have any breakthrough in national defense, foreign 
relations and military affairs.  He suggested Taiwan aim for 
a `soft landing' and watch the mainland from an 
international perspective.  It should spare no effort to 
promote exchanges between private and non-governmental 
organizations.  Secondly, it should try to sign free trade 
agreements with the United States and Japan as soon as 
possible and sign informal peace and friendship agreements 
with ASEAN nations and even with mainland China.  What 
Taiwan should deliberate is whether it should fundamentally 
resolve the issue of [China's] military threat.  As a member 
of the East Asian region, `we cannot just watch the train 
run while only chasing after it!'" 
 
PAAL