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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 008571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq Iran Bolivia 
PARIS - Wednesday, December 21, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
Iraq 
Iran 
Bolivia 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
Front pages lead with Evo Morales's election in Bolivia 
(Liberation: "The Indians Re-conquer America."), China's 
economic boom (Le Figaro) and the situation in Lebanon, 
"Paralyzed by the Fear of Suicide Attacks" according to La 
Croix.  An interview with slain journalist Gebrane Trueni's 
uncle Marwan Hamade, a Lebanese elected official, is titled: 
"The assassinations in Lebanon are perpetrated with Bachar al- 
Assad's knowledge." 
 
The situation in Iraq is the basis for an interview of Gerard 
Chaliand, who specializes in the politics of conflicts, in Le 
Figaro, titled: "Iraq Is Dominated by `Communautarism.'" "The 
elections are a success but they also confirm that in Iraq 
political life is dominated by the separation between the 
different communities. While democracy has made inroads in 
Iraq, it is important to re-instate the Sunni majority in the 
political process in order to keep chaos at bay. Bush is 
increasingly on the defensive at home: this is the price he is 
paying for his non-victory in Iraq and an ill-prepared war. 
Considering the magnitude of the insurrection, and the 
uncertainties hovering over Iraq, it is reasonable for the 
U.S. President to maintain sufficient troops there. An early 
withdrawal would have worse consequences than a prolonged 
stay." 
 
In the satirical weekly paper Le Canard Enchaine, Claude 
Angeli pens an article entitled: "Paris and Europe Afraid of 
`a U.S. Failure in Iraq." (See Part C) Liberation reports that 
American pessimism about the economy and Iraq "is on the 
wane." "The clouds over Bush's `horrible year' seem to be 
lifting," writes Pascal Riche reporting on the latest U.S. 
opinion poll (Washington Post/ABC News), which shows that 47% 
of respondents support Bush, up from only 39% in November. He 
notes that the "blitzkrieg" communications operation launched 
in recent weeks to show Americans that victory is possible in 
Iraq has succeeded. 
Le Figaro reports on Angela Merkel's "harsher stance towards 
Iran." (See Part C) 
 
In his two-day visit, Serbian President Boris Tadic, continued 
to express opposition to Kosovo's independence. In Les Echos 
editorialist Jacques Hubert-Rodier analyzes the "Explosive 
Kosovo Puzzle." "No matter what Kosovo's final status is, 
there will always be a strong international presence in the 
region because the match that is being played is extremely 
complex and the great powers such as the U.S., France, Great 
Britain, Italy and Russia who make up the `contact group' all 
have a role to play." 
 
Liberation reports that a poll to appear tomorrow in l'Express 
indicates that 1 out of three people in France would like 
Chirac to resign. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
Iraq 
 
"Fear of a `U.S. Failure' in Iraq" 
Claude Angeli in satirical Le Canard Enchaine (12/21): 
"General Bentegeat last November said that `the international 
community would do everything to avoid a U.S. failure in Iraq' 
because of the dire consequences. Chirac, Villepin and their 
advisors share Bentegeat's point of view. The signals coming 
from Iraq are those of imminent danger and military personnel 
of a `spreading cancer' in the Middle East. In his recent 
speeches, President Bush repeated the word `victory' some 
thirty times, as if to conjure fate. Or the polls. In Paris, 
this spectacle of a President forced to repeat the same words 
over and over is no longer even funny. A French diplomat 
acknowledged that his colleagues at the U.S. Embassy in Paris 
are both cynical and sad about the situation in Iraq: `they 
acknowledge that a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis would 
follow closely an early U.S. troop withdrawal.' But the fact 
is that civil war has already erupted between the two 
communities.  Meanwhile, American Generals have warned that 
keeping troops in Iraq will be difficult because of the lack 
of recruits. Who can blame American youth for not wanting to 
enroll." 
 
Iran 
 
"Merkel's Harsher Stance Towards Iran" 
Maurin Picard in right-of-center Le Figaro (12/21): "With 
little enthusiasm, the EU is resuming its talks with Iran on 
the nuclear crisis. The EU-3 does not expect anything positive 
to come out of the talks. Ever since the election of 
Ahmadinejad, the outsider no one expected, Tehran has 
seriously hardened its position. and is now lending a deaf ear 
to Russia's overture. Euro-Iranian relations are very much in 
ruins. But while today's meetings may well be a session 
devoted to `exploratory contacts,' the troika is no longer 
ready for a wait and see approach. Germany, which has 
traditionally adopted a conciliatory attitude towards Iran, 
has now opted for a different stance. The arrival of Angela 
Merkel, who has a more atlanticist attitude than her 
predecessor, has been instrumental in this change. The latest 
remarks by Ahmadinejad have also prompted Germany to consider 
imposing economic sanctions on Iran and banning the Iranian 
President from Germany. But Moscow remains the key: torn 
between keeping Iran from acquiring the bomb, and the appeal 
of juicy Iranian contracts, Moscow has yet to choose sides." 
 
Bolivia - Election of Evo Morales 
 
"Renaissance" 
Patrick Sabatier in left-of-center Liberation (12/21): "Could 
this be the revenge of the Indians over the conquistadors? A 
rebirth of the Che's revolutionary dream? Is this the 
beginning of an Indian renaissance or of Latin America's shift 
to the left?  But anti-imperialistic slogans can be 
misleading. Claiming to be leftist and anti-imperialistic does 
not mean breaking with the gringos' economic system. Still, 
the Indians have been the forgotten people for years. Evo 
Morales's electoral victory, if only by its magnitude, is 
reason enough to hope for a country that holds the world 
record for political coups. It is up to Morales to avoid 
populism and lift Bolivia's economy and social system." 
 
"Bolivia's Peaceful Revolution" 
Left-of-center Le Monde's editorial (12/21): "Morales's 
election is like a peaceful revolution. But will he be able to 
bring back stability to one of Latin America's poorest 
countries? He will have the support of the unions, at least in 
the beginning. His program will be the opposite of the 
movement for economic liberalization, which has been taking 
over across Latin America. Thus the anti-American axis is 
being re-enforced. After the fall of military dictatorships 
and the wave of democratization of the 90s, a new era has 
started for Latin America." STAPLETON