This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 005276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
USAID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, 
KCHANNELL, LPOWERS, CABLA 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, DNELSON, SBRADLEY 
AFR/EA FOR JESCALONA, JBORNS 
AFR/DP FOR TLAVELLE 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD NAIROBI FOR ABEO, 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID ETRD ECON PREL PGOV SOCI KE
SUBJECT:  CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITION IN KENYA MAKE 
HEADLINES AND PROBLEMS FOR THE GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: NAIROBI 7341 AND PREVIOUS 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  In recent days, the Kenyan press has been 
dominated by alarmist stories of the country?s 
worsening famine situation in certain regions. 
Photographs of starving children and adults, as well 
as dead and dying livestock, along with headlines 
such as, ?Starvation at Christmas,? have raised the 
consciousness and immediacy of Kenya?s long-standing 
and well-documented food crisis.  Poor and 
intermittent short-rains in Kenya?s most arid and 
semi arid areas are exacerbating the food crisis, 
particularly in the eastern and northern pastoral 
districts.  The extended dry spell and the ensuing 
lack of pasture and water have culminated in 
livestock mortalities, acute malnutrition and 
reportedly some loss of life in several pastoral 
districts. 
 
¶2.  Relief assistance is being provided to 
affected households through the ongoing WFP/GOK 
Emergency Operation (EMOP).  However, a persistent 
dry spell and a severe shortage of water, pasture and 
browse in pastoral areas and crop failures in parts 
of southeast and the coast are likely to result in 
increased vulnerability and, therefore, an additional 
need for relief assistance.  The GOK has been much 
criticized in the media for its lack of planning 
despite many public assessments of such food, water, 
and pasture shortages if, as happened, normal rains 
did not come to the affected areas.  End summary. 
 
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Background 
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¶3.  A drought emergency was declared by the 
Government of Kenya (GOK) in July 2004.  Following an 
international appeal, more than 1.2 million Kenyans 
are receiving food and other assistance to lessen the 
humanitarian impact.  Although the 2005 long-rains 
(March-June) improved agricultural production and 
pastoral conditions in several regions, the 
northeastern districts of Wajir, Mandera and parts of 
Marsabit received almost no ?short rains?(October- 
December)and were recently assessed as slow to 
recover.  The districts are mostly comprised of 
pastoralists that rely on livestock production for 
food security and livelihood. 
 
¶4.  UNICEF conducted a nutritional assessment 
in Garissa, Wajir and Mandera from October 6-20 to 
determine levels of malnutrition in children less 
than five years.  The survey indicated alarmingly 
high malnutrition levels in the areas.  For instance, 
in Wajir, Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) was 
reported to be 29.8 percent, much higher than the 15 
percent emergency threshold. (Reftel- Nairobi 05074) 
 
¶5.  The short-rains season contributes close to 70 
percent of the farm output in the marginal 
agricultural or southeast and coastal lowlands of 
Kenya.  Similarly, the eastern and northern 
pastoralists rely on rains for water, pasture and 
browse for their livestock. 
 
¶6.  In contrast, the long-rains maize harvest in 
Nyanza and Rift Valley Provinces was estimated at 10 
percent above the long-term average.  As a result, 
the December price for maize in these areas was 30-35 
percent lower than in 2004.   The decline in price is 
negatively affecting household income.  Already, 
aggrieved farmers are petitioning the government to 
support prices, ostensibly by raising the buying 
price offered by the National Cereal Produce Board 
(NCPB).  A number of factors including lack of 
purchasing power, inadequate roads and trade 
infrastructure, and market inefficiencies explain the 
paradoxical scenario of food shortage in the midst of 
abundant supply. 
 
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Current Situation 
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¶7.  The 2005 short-rains season failed in most 
drought prone pastoral and marginal agricultural 
areas.  This same weather pattern is also affecting 
parts of Somalia.  In particular, rains have been 
poor and intermittent in the eastern and northern 
pastoral districts including Mandera, Wajir, and 
parts of Marsabit.  According to the Arid Lands and 
Resource Management Project (ALRMP), in Mandera and 
Wajir districts, less than 40 percent of the areas 
received showers; the rest remained extremely dry. 
As a result, pastoralists and livestock must trek up 
to 20 miles or more in search of water, pasture and 
browse, and in the process, livestock have weakened. 
Reports indicate that due to the scarcity of water 
and increased clustering around water points, the 
frequency of borehole breakdown has escalated in most 
eastern and northern pastoral districts.  There have 
been a number of reports of livestock herds 
?invading? private ranches and nature reserves in 
search of adequate water and grazing land. 
 
¶8.   Livestock deaths have also been reported in 
areas where rains are relatively more favorable, 
mainly due to the inability of the emaciated animals 
to withstand sudden lowering of temperature. 
Reportedly, most of the animals are now kidding and 
calving, hence, their increased vulnerability. 
Increased miscarriages have also been reported due to 
the weakened livestock body conditions. 
 
¶9.  The average livestock price has declined by 
margins ranging from 8-10 percent for cattle and 
about 5 percent for the small ruminants. Persistent 
decline in prices will, undoubtedly, have detrimental 
effects on the already fragile pastoral livelihood, 
exacerbating poor household food security. 
 
¶10.  Owing to the above scenario, the need for 
emergency food and non-food assistance is expected to 
expand from current beneficiary numbers of 1.2 
million up to 2.5 million.  A multi-agency food 
security assessment covering 22 drought-affected 
districts is scheduled to begin in early January. 
The assessment results, expected to be available in 
mid-February, will reveal details on the magnitude of 
the crisis and required interventions. 
 
¶11.  Press reports have been alarmist and often 
inaccurate.  But the photos and stories of suffering 
and death are real enough to require a personal 
response from President Kibaki, who traveled to 
Northeastern province on December 27.  Despite 
repeated government claims that this is an act of 
nature, and there is ?no fault? to be attributed, 
many editorials and commentators have placed the 
blame squarely on the GOK?s lack of preparedness and 
misplaced priorities. 
 
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Response to Date 
----------------- 
 
¶12.  Donors, the United Nations and NGOs have been 
responding to emergency conditions in Kenya since the 
GOK's original drought appeal in July 2004.  The 
World Food Program (WFP) is currently distributing a 
full basket of maize, pulses and vegetable oil to 
approximately 1.1 million beneficiaries in 17 
districts, in addition to the expanded school feeding 
program covering 200,000 school children. 
 
¶13.  USAID contributes approximately thirty five 
percent of WFP drought emergency commodities. An 
additional pledge of 12,000MT of wheat is being 
considered to be swapped with local maize for 
immediate relief distribution.  USAID?s Office of 
Foreign Disaster Assistance provided over US$ 1 
million in October to support water and agricultural 
activities in eastern and northeastern provinces. 
 
¶14.  USAID/Kenya Relief Coordinator, 
USAID/OFDA Regional Advisor and FFP/REDSO 
representative are scheduled to visit northeastern, 
eastern and other drought-affected areas during the 
first two weeks of January. 
 
¶15.  There have been credible reports of the GOK 
distributing food out side of the EMOP in an attempt 
to encourage a positive response to the November 21 
constitutional referendum.  (The referendum failed.) 
Now the government is renewing its efforts to get 
food to highly impacted areas, and has enlisted the 
military?s help.  The GOK has doubled its in-kind 
contribution to 10,000 MT of maize.  Other 
contributions include US$1.27 million from the 
Swedish Government to fund associated costs of the 
GOK?s in-kind contribution; Euro 2.25 million from 
ECHO for water/nutrition/protection activities in 
Mandera.  DFID is considering a GBP 1.2 million to 
support nutrition program in Mandera, Wajir and 
Marsabit districts. Additional pledges are needed to 
meet the current pipeline gap of approximately 27,000 
MT, as well to address the imminently large-scale 
relief needs beyond February 2006. 
 
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Comment 
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¶16.  In many communities in Eastern, Northeastern, 
and Coast Provinces, the current situation is dire 
and deadly.  Yet, the situation is not unanticipated. 
Most of these areas are covered under the on-going 
emergency operation, and it was widely known that 
poor short-rains could trigger a large-scale crisis. 
Despite the regularity of such crises in recent 
years, the GOK still has not put in place an 
effective system for getting assistance to these 
economically and politically marginalized areas. 
 
¶17.  Inevitably, the drought condition described 
above as well as farmers? inability to generate 
sufficient incomes will have negative implications 
for household food security.  In addition, the 
substantial livestock mortalities suggest that even 
if the season improves, the pastoral livelihood will 
take a much longer time to recover, implying growing 
chronic food insecurity. 
¶18.  This situation calls for a more proactive 
engagement from the GOK to address the root causes of 
such extreme vulnerability.  Although the crisis is 
often triggered by unfavorable weather, the real 
predicament is rooted in the massive underdevelopment 
which characterizes eastern and northeastern 
pastoralist areas.  Hence, it is high time that the 
GOK critically re-examines its development strategy 
in these chronically food insecure areas.  Likewise, 
on-going and future development assistance should 
increasingly find ways to alleviate the problem.  An 
increasingly important part of the puzzle is getting 
pastoralist population to diversify their livelihoods 
while developing  new local and international markets 
for their animals, within the limits of the land?s 
carrying capacity.  Selling emaciated livestock to 
the government as a last resort to stave off 
starvation is not an economic model to perpetuate. 
 
¶19.  Nevertheless, continued emergency 
assistance to the worst-affected households will be 
necessary to avoid a catastrophic situation and 
prevent further loss of livelihood. Specific food and 
non-food requirements will be detailed in future 
cables, as additional information becomes available. 
Post is also in discussion with the World Food 
Program with respect to joint planning for Kenya and 
Somalia. 
 
BELLAMY 
 
 
 
 
 
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