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UNCLAS MINSK 001561 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly II (December 24-30) 
 
¶1.  This is the second in a weekly series of election-oriented 
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March 
19, 2006 presidential elections. 
 
-------------- 
The Candidates 
-------------- 
 
All Eight Potential Candidates Registered, Now it Gets Hard 
 
¶2. The Central Election Commission (CEC) registered support 
groups for all eight would-be candidates.  This is the first 
step toward becoming a candidate.  The nominees are (and size 
of support group is): 
 
Aleksandr Lukashenko (6,212 people) 
Aleksandr Milinkevich (5,135) 
Valery Frolov (1,152) 
Sergey Gaidukevich (3,073) 
Aleksandr Kozulin (3,347) 
Zenon Poznyak (2,405) 
Sergey Skrebets (143) 
Aleksandr Voitovich (1,305) 
 
The next, and final, step to becoming a candidate is the 
collection of 100,000 signatures of support.  Only registered 
members of the support groups can collect signatures, and it is 
illegal to distribute campaign literature during collection. 
Deputy Head of the CEC Nikolay Lozovik told the press, "It is 
not easy to collect 100,000 signatures.  I believe there will 
be much fewer contenders after this stage of the election 
campaign is over." 
 
 
"Pointless for Poznyak to Run" 
 
¶3. CEC head Yermoshina told the press she sees no reason for 
Zenon Poznyak to run for president.  Even though the CEC 
registered his support group, Yermoshina said she does not 
think he can legally run because he has lived abroad for the 
past nine years.  She explained, "In 2001 the decision to let 
him run was taken for political reasons... to show him the real 
level of his public support.  If he failed to understand it 
back then, there is no point in giving him the opportunity to 
participate in elections again." 
 
 
Skrebets to Stand Trial on January 16 
 
¶4. Presidential contender and former MP Sergey Skrebets' trial will 
start January 16 in the Supreme Court.  Skrebets was arrested on 
May 15 on suspicion of giving a court official a USD 30,000 bribe. 
He has been in pre-trial detention sine his arrest.  CEC deputy 
Lozovik told the press Skrebets can run in the elections as he has 
not yet been convicted.  However, if he won the election and was 
subsequently convicted, the elections would have to be annulled. 
 
Poznyak's Campaign Head Arrested, Home Searched 
 
¶5. On December 27, Minsk police arrested Sergey Popkov, head of 
Zenon Poznyak's support group and campaign, on suspicion of 
attempting to pass a counterfeit US 100 dollar bill.  Police 
searched his apartment, but found nothing illegal.  Christian 
Conservative Party (Poznyak's party) deputy Yury Belenky claimed 
police were more interested in looking at party information, 
computer files and other political documents, than in searching for 
more counterfeit money. 
 
 
Milinkevich Warned Over Early Campaigning 
 
¶6. On December 27, CEC official Nadezhda Kiseleva warned 
Milinkevich and his campaign team against campaigning ahead of the 
authorized period.  Kiseleva said she had heard Milinkevich's team 
was already distributing literature in several cities.  Under the 
Election Code, candidates can only campaign after they are 
officially registered, and can only use finds provided by the CEC 
for campaigning expenses.  The CEC plans to register candidates 
between February 12 and 21, and give each candidate BYR 66,700,000 
(USD 31,000) to campaign.  CEC deputy Lozovik the same day 
announced, "At the moment, there is no way we could press any 
sanctions on Milinkevich for starting his pre-election campaign... 
If his support team gets caught doing that, they will be held 
responsible to the CEC in confomity with the law... If instances 
of premature cmpaigning are revealed during signature collection 
the signatures collected in violation of election requirements will 
be considered null and void." 
 
----------- 
Observation 
----------- 
 
Wh Will Observe? 
 
¶7. CEC head Lidiya Yermoshina anounced the GOB would begin 
inviting foreign obsevers in January.  She said some well 
known politial figures, NGO leaders, human rights activists 
nd election experts would be invited, but did not rovide any 
details.  CEC deputy Lozovik told PolChief on December 23 that 
the best election obsevers are from the CIS, "Because they 
understand te peculiarities of Belarus' circumstance and the 
unique advancement of Belarusian democracy."  Lozoik did agree 
that CIS observers always positivel assess elections in which 
all other observers find serious problems.  Lozvik confirmed 
election observation NGO Partnershp would not be allowed to 
observe the elections s it is not registered.  He said there 
are plenty of registered NGOs that could observe, but when 
pressed could only name one, the Belarus Helsinki Committee 
(which is fighting for its life in the courts). 
 
 
And ODIHR? 
 
¶8. On December 23, Pol Chief discussed the possibility of an 
ODIHR mission with the OSCE mission deputy and with CEC deputy 
Lozovik.  OSCE said ODIHR hopes to send a two or three-person 
needs assessment team to Minsk in early January.  ODIHR does 
not need an invitation to observe to send this team, but does 
need tacit understanding with the CEC and MFA in order to get 
visas.  OSCE added that the GOB told them they had not yet 
decided on inviting ODIHR, making it unlikely any ODIHR mission 
could arrive in time to observe the signature collection phase. 
Lozovik told Pol Chief he recommended the GOB not/not invite 
ODIHR, as the OSCE lacks objectivity.  However, Lozovik thought 
the GOB would issue an invitation regardless. 
 
 
Partnership Cannot Observe 
 
¶9. Nikolay Astreika, head of the Partnership NGO, announced on 
December 30 that Partnership as a group would be unable to 
conduct large-scale election observation, as they had in 2004. 
Astreika said the elections had been called too soon, meaning 
the NGO could not conduct long-term monitoring, and they had 
already failed to observe the formation of territorial election 
commissions.  Moreover, many activists had moved on to other 
civil society activities, such as helping reduce unemployment 
and improve the country's infrastructure.  Astreika did not 
exclude the possibility that some Partnership members would be 
interested in trying to observe the elections, possibly through 
registered groups.  [Comment: In the 2004 elections, the two 
main independent observation groups were Partnership and 
Vyasna, neither of which is registered.]  Perhaps not 
coincidentally, Astreika was released from jail on December 29, 
after spending 12 days in lock-up for organizing an 
unsanctioned meeting of his NGO. 
 
 
------------------------- 
Not a Level Playing Field 
------------------------- 
 
Pro-State Trade Union Supports Lukashenko 
 
¶10. A spokeswoman for the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus 
(FTUB), the GOB-controlled union structure that claims to represent 
over 95% of workers, over four million people, announced all of its 
branches would unanimously support Lukashenko.  [Note: In 2001, 
Lukashenko's main challenger headed the FTUB.  After Lukashenko won 
that election, he removed his competitor and placed one of his 
supporters in charge of the organization.]  At a December 23 
conference, FTUB's leadership further pledged to campaign for 
Lukashenko, and to inform workers about Lukashenko's platform and 
views.  Despite this activity, FTUB Chairman Leonid Kozik told 
reporters, the FTUB "has never engaged in politics." 
Lukashenko Pandering for Support? 
 
¶11. In the past week Lukashenko ordered that pensions would be 
raised by nine percent on January 1, decreed that doctors' salaries 
would increase 230% to 350%, retroactive from December 1, and vowed 
to support the Catholic Church in Belarus.  While all of these are 
continuations of trends begun at least a year ago, it is likely 
they are also intended to raise Lukashenko's support before 
elections. 
 
 
Minsk City Ideological Department Purged 
 
¶12. On December 20, the entire staff of the ideological department 
of the Minsk City government resigned for unknown reasons.  They 
were immediately replaced.  The new head of the department, Gennady 
Kurbeko, previously worked as a television commentator and in the 
Presidential Administration.  One independent source believes this 
appointment was made in preparation for the March presidential 
elections. 
 
 
Almost No Opposition in Territorial Election Commissions 
 
¶13. On December 28, Minsk City formed 10 election commissions, 
each with 13 people.  Of these 130 people, 10% are from 
political parties, 30.8% from NGOs, 19.2% from worker's 
collectives, and 15.4% from local government agencies. 
However, the vast majority of these people are from pro- 
Lukashenko groups.  The NGOs listed are the Belarusian 
Republican Youth Movement ("Lukamol"), the Belarusian Women's 
Union and the FTUB.  The parties are the pro-Lukashenko Liberal 
Democratic Party, pro-regime Communist Party, the Agrarian 
Party, the Social and Sports Party, and the Party of Labor and 
Justice [note: these last two have no existence outside of 
election cycles, when they reappear to support the regime]. 
Some members of the Belarusian Popular Front are the only 
opposition members known to have made it onto a commission in 
Minsk. 
 
 
Same Story in Mogilev 
 
¶14. This above story was repeated in the Mogilev regional 
election commission, which includes people from the Liberal 
Democratic Party, the pro-regime Communist Party, and the 
Lukamol. 
 
------------- 
Miscellaneous 
------------- 
 
Boycott Support Drops 
 
¶15. Backing away from his earlier calls for a boycott, Vladimir 
Kolos urged other intellectuals to support Milinkevich.  While 
not happy with Milinkevich's efforts to win popular support, 
Kolos said Milinkevich remains the strongest opposition 
contender. 
 
 
Twenty Percent to Vote Early/Watch for Fraud!! 
 
¶16. In an interview, CEC head Yermoshina estimated 20% of 
voters would cast their ballot in the five days of early 
elections.  She explained the CEC offers early voting for the 
convenience of voters.  Yermoshina also warned people not to 
sign any candidate lists before December 29 ("If they come 
knocking at your door earlier than that, give them the boot, 
the crooks!"), and to make sure they know who's candidate list 
they are signing, as "You may get deceived.  They may say they 
are collecting signatures in support of Lukashenko, while their 
real candidate is someone else."  [Comment: As head of the CEC, 
Yermoshina is supposed to be neutral.  However, she is strongly 
partisan and in 2004 praised Lukashenko for his "elegant 
victory" after every one of his candidates was elected to 
parliament.] 
 
 
Election in the Russian Press 
 
¶17. According to Belarusian media, several Russian papers have 
carried coverage of the election.  Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote 
that Lukashenko's challengers were too slow to act, so most 
Belarusians know nothing about most of them.  The paper did 
note that, "The only politician who can be an alternative to 
Lukashenko and about who voters have heard something is 
Milinkevich."  Vremya Novosti claimed Lukashenko is campaigning 
on his efforts to improve living standards, while Milinkevich 
is focusing on moral values.  Novie Novosti estimated that most 
of the opposition candidates would not collect sufficient 
signatures, citing the 2001 election when 25 contenders 
announced their candidacies, but only three managed to get on 
the ballot.  On-line paper Gazeta SNG.ru claimed Lukashenko is 
a charismatic leader who had already outmaneuvered his 
opponents by calling early elections. 
 
 
------------------ 
Quotes of the Week 
------------------ 
 
¶18. From Lukashenko's December 26 interview with Rossisskaya 
Gazeta: 
 
On election timing: "I would have favored a July election.  The 
spring sowing would be over, we would have celebrated Victory 
Day and Independence Day, and nothing would have been left of 
the opposition." 
 
"The opposition is telling us they are not ready [for March 
elections].  What have they been doing for five years?  They 
are simply not ready to be in charge." 
 
"Elections give our opposition a chance to make money." 
 
"Until recently, our opposition has been calling France an 
example of a democratic state, referring to Belarus as a 
dictatorial regime.  But we have never introduced a state of 
emergency, which France has done recently." 
 
 
PHLIPOT