VZCZCXRO3666
RR RUEHDA
DE RUEHAK #7513/01 3561056
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221056Z DEC 05
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2131
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 9379
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 0148
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 007513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY FOR PLANTIER 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID SOCI PHUM KWMN TU
SUBJECT: THE CHANGING FACE OF POVERTY IN TURKEY 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: While the incidence of extreme poverty is 
very low, nearly 25 percent of Turks live below the World 
Bank's international poverty line, with poor people 
increasingly concentrated in large cities.  Despite an 
improving economy, regional disparities in income, together 
with internal migration to urban areas, perpetuate the 
problem, which continues to disproportionately affect women 
and pose problems for Turkey's EU accession.  Breaking with 
its previous ambivalence in addressing the issue, the GOT 
recently endorsed a survey on internally displaced persons 
(IDPs) and economic migration, and is funding a study that 
will make policy recommendations for combating poverty in 
the Southeast.  End summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
SNAPSHOT OF TURKISH POVERTY 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The GOT prides itself on the fact that less than 1 
percent of the population lives in extreme poverty (defined 
as those living on less than 1USD per day); however, the 
United Nations estimates that 24 percent of the population 
lives on less than 4.3USD per day.  With a purchasing power 
parity per capita GDP of about 7000 USD, Turkey is 
classified as a middle-income country; however, it ranks 
94th out of 177 countries in the UN Human Development Index 
(HDI), well behind fellow EU accession countries Croatia 
(45th), Bulgaria (55th) and Romania (64th), and regional 
neighbors that Turks generally considered less advanced than 
Turkey, such as Kazakhstan (80th), Armenia (83rd), and 
Jordan (90th). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Sarah Poole, the United Nations Development 
Program (UNDP) Deputy Resident Representative, told us that 
regional and gender disparities are key factors in Turkey's 
low HDI ranking, citing them as Turkey's biggest development 
challenge.  She noted that while per capita GDP has 
increased since the 2001 economic crisis, income growth has 
not trickled down to the poor.  Poole's point is echoed in a 
recent World Bank report, which states that without 
reductions in inequality, gains from growth could fail to 
significantly reduce poverty.   In addition, Turkey's UN 
Millennium Development Goals (MDG) report cites lack of 
effective cooperation among institutions responsible for 
alleviating poverty, along with a lack of norms and 
standards in the programs they implement, as key challenges 
in reducing the country's poverty rate. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
INTERNAL MIGRATION CHANGES THE FACE OF POVERTY 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4.  (U) Poverty has traditionally been concentrated in 
heavily ethnically-Kurdish Eastern and Southeastern 
Anatolia.  In recent years, however, internal migration has 
changed the regional profile of Turkish poverty, and 
weakened extended family support networks.   Poole told us 
that strong family, social, and community networks in rural 
areas had kept the incidence of extreme poverty very low. 
However, as people migrate from rural areas to large cities, 
these structures are disrupted, leading to more intractable, 
longer-term poverty.  Poole noted that because of a lack of 
marketable skills, internal migrants stay just as poor even 
when they move to larger urban centers.  The majority work 
as unskilled laborers, selling food and goods on the 
streets.  Urban centers such as Ankara and Istanbul are 
overwhelmed with internal migrants and are unable to absorb 
them, resulting in rapidly growing, densely populated poor 
neighborhoods, often consisting principally of illegal 
ramshackle houses built without formal land title. 
 
-------------------------------- 
WOMEN DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECTED 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Although Turkey prides itself as a leader in women's 
rights among Muslim-majority countries, women bear the brunt 
of Turkey's economic underdevelopment.  According to UN 
statistics, the poverty rate among women actually increased 
between 2002 and 2003, from 27.2 percent to 28.3 percent, 
despite strong growth in the overall economy.  This poverty 
adversely affects the achievement of other goals, such as 
universal education and reduction in infant and maternal 
mortality rates.  Turkey's maternal mortality ratio (deaths 
per 100,000 live births) is 70, whereas EU accession peer 
Romania's ratio is 49.  Poole told us that every 12 hours 
one Turkish woman dies of childbearing-related 
complications, a rate on par with sub-Saharan Africa.  In 
 
ANKARA 00007513  002 OF 002 
 
 
the eastern provinces, skilled health personnel attend only 
41.7 percent of births, whereas in the west the rate is 95.3 
percent.  In rural areas, over 60 percent of 11-14 year old 
females are not enrolled in school.  The UN rates Turkey 
76th out of 80 countries (behind Pakistan, 71st, and Iran, 
75th) in its Gender Empowerment Measure, which gauges 
inequality in political participation and decision-making 
power, economic participation, and power over economic 
resources.  It is these gender-oriented health and education 
criteria that pull down Turkey's overall ranking in the UN 
Human Development index, as opposed to the purely economic 
indicators. 
 
---------------------------- 
GOT BEGINNING TO TAKE NOTICE 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The GOT has not traditionally spent much time or 
resources on examining the poverty issue.  According to 
Poole, UNDP had been encouraging the GOT to do a qualitative 
survey on IDPs and internal migrants since 2003. (Comment: 
Though by definition hard to calculate, the number of IDPs 
is estimated at between 300,000 -- the GOT's unrealistically 
low estimate -- to 4 million -- a wildly inflated estimate 
by pro-Kurdish groups.  These estimates are influenced by 
politics and often fail to distinguish between those 
displaced for economic reasons and those displaced due to 
ongoing violence in the Southeast.  According to Poole, 4 
million is Human Rights Watch's figure and is very 
unrealistic.  End comment.)  With UNDP's cooperation, the 
GOT teamed with Hacettepe University to do a survey on IDPs 
which is expected for release in February 2006.  Poole 
acknowledged that distinguishing between economic migrants 
and IDPs is quite difficult, but told econoffs that UNDP 
hopes this survey will provide a more accurate picture of 
internal migration. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In another promising step, the Prime Minister's 
office requested and funded a six-month study on economic 
opportunities in the Southeast.  The study, currently being 
conducted jointly by the NGO Turkish Economic and ocial 
Research Foundation (TESEV), UNDP, and Aerican NGO Open 
Society Initiative (OSI), wil review data on poverty in the 
region and proide policy recommendations to alleviate the 
situation.  Results of the study are expected in the spring. 
In addition, the GAP (Southeastern Anatolia Project) 
Administration is organizing an event on poverty and 
economic growth in the Southeast in May.  According to 
Poole, the GAP has not paid enough attention to social and 
local development issues. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment: In spite of Turkey's strong GDP growth 
since the 2001 crisis, income inequalities remain stark.  As 
officials from Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party 
(AKP), including PM Erdogan, have recognized, the end of 
endemic high inflation since the 2001 financial crisis has 
increased ordinary Turks' purchasing power.  However, the 
growth of the economy has not yet reduced the large 
percentage of population living in poverty. Not only do 
regional and gender-based disparities persist but migration 
to the cities seems to have worsened the problem by breaking 
down extended family support networks. Only a concerted, 
cross-sectoral focus on development, including projects 
targeting health and education and women in particular, is 
likely to improve Turkey's abysmal Human Development Index 
ranking. However, ongoing PKK violence in the Southeast will 
hinder GOT efforts. 
 
 
WILSON