This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004412 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE), EUR/PPD (JBASEDOW), EUR/ACE 
(ESMITH/JMCKANE), DRL/PHD (CKUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KPAO KDEM KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT:  KAZAKHSTANI ANALYSTS UNCONCERNED ABOUT RUSSIA- 
UZBEKISTAN MILITARY PACT 
 
Ref:  Almaty 3284 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  At a recent roundtable to discuss the 
November 14 military pact between Russia and Uzbekistan, a 
group of political analysts and academics considered the 
pact both a hedge against U.S. influence in Central Asia, 
as well as a signal from Russia that it still has influence 
in the area.  One analyst said the agreement showed that 
cooperation between countries of Central Asia and Russia 
was now possible only on separate bilateral bases. 
Analysts also discussed multilateral regional cooperation, 
and said that the Commonwealth of Independent States has no 
future, because of separate interests being pursued by 
authoritarian rulers in their individual countries. 
Newspaper commentary highlighted the economic benefits that 
Uzbekistan might gain from a closer relationship with 
Russia, without having to make concessions on democratic 
reform.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
Pact as Russian Intimidation Tactic or... 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) At an embassy-hosted roundtable November 23, a 
group of seven prominent political scientists and academics 
discussed the significance of the November 14 military pact 
signed between Russia and Uzbekistan allowing each country 
the use of military installations on the other's territory. 
Nurbulat Masanov, a professor of ethnography and the newly 
appointed director of the Nomad Institute (see reftel), 
said Russia is now isolated in the world community, after 
the change in relations with formerly close ally Ukraine 
following Viktor Yushenko's election last December.  He 
said Kazakhstan was Russia's only real partner in the 
former Soviet space and that the pact with Uzbekistan was a 
means of "blackmailing" Kazakhstan, i.e., demonstrating 
that Russia still could leverage its power in the region. 
 
...Pact as Bulwark Against U.S. Pressure for Reform 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Other participants agreed with Sergey Duvanov, 
independent journalist and director of the Polyton 
Discussion Club, who said the pact was more likely a show 
of solidarity between authoritarian leaders against U.S. 
policies promoting democratic reform.  Duvanov noted in 
particular the mutual support Putin and Nazarbayev provided 
each other against pressure from the U.S. for democratic 
reform.  He also said the intimidation tactics employed by 
pro-presidential forces during Kazakhstan's presidential 
campaign indicated that Astana would likely maintain a 
close partnership with Russia.  Dosym Satpayev, director of 
the NGO Risk Assessment Group, supported this view and said 
that in the 1990s, Russia lost reliable and predictable 
partners in the post-Soviet area and only Kazakhstan now is 
still relatively loyal to Russia.  He also said Kazakhstan 
is the only country in post-Soviet area that does not have 
anti-Russian attitudes among the elite and opposition. 
Masanov added that if outside pressure for reform weakened, 
then the two leaders' alliance would crumble, because their 
stance against democratic reform is all they have in 
common. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Regarding the effect the military pact might have 
on Russia, Sanat Kushkumbayev, a political scientist with 
the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, said Russian 
political analysts had told him they were not happy about 
the high price Russia would have to pay in terms of respect 
and prestige in the world community for close cooperation 
with the Karimov regime, which had been effectively 
ostracized by the European Union.  For that reason he 
believes Russian defense minister Sergey Ivanov was sincere 
when he declared Russia had no intentions of placing a 
military base at Karshi Khanabad in the near future. 
 
Another Uprising in Uzbekistan Possible 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Although participants had various opinions about 
the motivations in pursuing the Russia-Uzbekistan pact, 
there was a consensus that without any relief in 
Uzbekistan's crushing poverty and oppression from the 
 
 
Karimov regime, another popular uprising like that in 
Andijan in May was inevitable.  Duvanov said such a 
spontaneous explosion of outrage might cause Uzbekistan to 
fracture along ethnic lines, because the country is now 
held together only by Karimov's authoritarian hand.  He 
said Kazakhstan would feel the impact from an influx of 
desperate people seeking jobs and survival in Kazakhstan. 
Masanov said during the Soviet era, diverse ethnic groups 
like Tajiks, Kazakhs, Uighurs, and Uzbeks living in the 
territory of Uzbekistan were forced to identify themselves 
as Uzbeks, but since Uzbekistan's independence the groups 
have been reasserting their individual ethnic identities. 
 
No Chance for Closer Central Asian Integration 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (SBU) On the broader issue of cooperation between 
Central Asian countries, Masanov said the Commonwealth of 
Independent States (CIS) as a truly integrated entity had 
no future, first because there are common interests only 
between individual countries and Russia.  The other 
obstacle to closer integration, Masanov said, was the 
"vertical of power" in the leadership of Central Asian 
states.  He compared authoritarian regimes with inflexible 
and hidden agendas to icebergs separated by submerged 
bases.  As for relations between Kazakhstan and Russia, 
Duvanov said Kazakhstan used the partnership with Russia as 
a counterbalance to its relations with the United States. 
Kushkumbayev said Kazakhstan's elite prevented fuller 
integration with Russia, because Kazakhstan is still 
reaping the benefits of its independence.  In the hierarchy 
of Kazakhstan's preferred partners, Satpayev said Russia 
was number one, followed by the CIS organization, China and 
the United States. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Participants expected the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization (SCO) to share the same fate as the CIS, and 
saw its sole purpose, in the words of Duvanov, as keeping 
the "hegemon" (U.S.) at bay.  Satpayev said the SCO had no 
economic future because "you can't breed an elephant with a 
fly," referring to China's overwhelming economic strength 
compared to other SCO partners.  He also said China was 
afraid to enter the Kazakhstani market because of the high 
rate of corruption in society. 
 
Media: Uzbekistan Has Foreign Policy (U.S.) Alternative 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶8. (U) Newspaper commentary highlighted the economic 
benefits that Uzbekistan might seek from a closer 
relationship with Russia.  In a December 2 article for pro- 
government Liter, Satpayev speculated on Karimov's motives 
in seeking membership in the Eurasian Economic Community. 
"For Uzbekistan, participation in the Eurasian Economic 
Community is basically a grand political gesture, which 
should demonstrate to the West that Uzbekistan has a 
foreign policy alternative (to the U.S.). . . Islam Karimov 
is only trying to exploit investment opportunities of the 
Eurasian Economic Community to finance the ineffective 
Uzbek economy, while not granting any serious economic 
concessions."  A similar view was expressed in a November 
25 article in pro-government Delovaya Nedelya:  "When the 
spontaneous riot headed by religious `ekstremists' struck 
Andijan, Tashkent used the pretext of an international plot 
to finally break the friendship with the cunning partner to 
be embraced by the powerful ally Putin, who does not tie 
his own geopolitical interests with ideas of spreading 
democracy and civil freedoms... The Uzbek people are hoping 
to gain from the Russians an enlivened economy, the 
restoration of enterprises begun in the early 90's, the 
creation of jobs, and of course free entrance (to Russia) 
to earn wages." 
 
¶9. (SBU) Roundtable analysts expressed no particular 
concern about the military pact between their country's 
northern and southern neighbor, and Masanov and Duvanov 
went so far as to say Russia was isolated politically. 
Kushkumbayev said Russia was trying to wield influence over 
Central Asia, which Russia still considered its strategic 
"front line," while China considered Central Asia the 
"tyl," or rear guard.  All had sincere sympathy for the 
Uzbek people and Duvanov voiced the hope that Nazarbayev 
 
 
would negotiate with Karimov to allow Uzbek nationals to 
legally work in Kazakhstan for the sake of the Uzbek 
families who needed the income. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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