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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IS KMDR MEDIA REACTION REPORT
SUBJECT: ISRAEL MEDIA REACTION 
 
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SUBJECTS COVERED IN THIS REPORT: 
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Sharon's Political Moves 
 
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Key stories in the media: 
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The political situation following PM Sharon's departure 
from the Likud and his founding of a new party, and the 
military situation along the Lebanese border dominate 
the headlines. 
 
All media reported that 13 to 15 Likud Knesset members 
(depending on the media), including Ehud Olmert, Meir 
Sheetrit, Tzipi Livni, Abraham Hirschson, and Gideon 
Ezra, have joined Sharon in the new party, which has 
been temporary labeled "National Responsibility." 
Israel Radio reported that the party's permanent name 
is likely to be "Kadima" (Forward), pending Sharon's 
approval.  All media quoted Sharon as saying at a news 
conference on Monday afternoon that life in the Likud 
had become "unbearable."  Leading media reported that 
the Likud's Knesset faction will convene on Thursday to 
decide whether the Likud ministers will quit the 
government.  The media reported that President Moshe 
Katsav plans to respect the wishes of the Knesset 
factions to hold elections on March 28. 
 
The three major newspapers -- Yediot, Maariv, and 
Ha'aretz -- published results of polls (see below) 
indicating that, were elections held today, Sharon 
would "crush" the Likud (Maariv's expression). 
 
Leading media reported that on Monday, Defense Minister 
Shaul Mofaz and FM Silvan Shalom announced their 
intentions to compete for Likud chairmanship.  Major 
media reported that former Shin Bet head Avi Dichter is 
Sharon's candidate for the defense portfolio. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that Sharon's decision to 
leave the Likud has deferred an already long-delayed 
strategic dialogue with the U.S. 
 
Globes and the business sections of the major 
newspapers write that Israel's economy, including the 
adoption of the 2006 state budget, will come to a 
standstill during the elections period. 
Erratum: Minister-without-Portfolio Tzachi Hanegbi is 
the Likud's interim chairman, not as reported on 
Monday. 
 
All media reported that on Monday, Hizbullah launched a 
failed attempt to kidnap soldiers in an assault on the 
Sheba Farms and the village of Ghajar, which straddles 
the Israeli-Lebanese border, and a coordinated mortar 
and rocket barrage on northern Galilee towns and 
kibbutzim.  An IDF soldier killed five infiltrators, 
thus apparently thwarting an attempt to kidnap 
soldiers.  At least 11 soldiers were wounded and a 
house severely damaged in Metulla by Hizbullah mortar 
fire.  The media reported that the IDF responded with 
artillery fire and IAF strikes.  Israel Radio quoted 
Mofaz and Deputy Defense Minister Zeev Boim as saying 
that the attack was undoubtedly coordinated with Syria 
and Iran.  The radio reported that Israel views the 
Lebanese government as responsible for any hostile 
activity by Hizbullah against Israel.  Israel Radio 
quoted IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz as saying that on 
Monday, the Lebanese government asked Israel, through 
international factors, for a cease-fire.  The radio 
quoted Halutz as saying that this was a refreshing 
novelty, since the Lebanese government understands that 
it is responsible for actions that are carried out on 
its territory.  Citing Israeli officials, Yediot 
reported that Israel will file a strong complaint with 
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the UN Security 
Council, and start a "diplomatic campaign" against 
Iran.  Israel Radio reported that Lebanese PM Fuad 
Siniora is trying to calm the situation and to restrain 
Hizbullah.  However, the radio quoted Lebanese FM Fawzi 
Salloukh and Hizbullah's leader in southern Lebanon, as 
saying separately that Israel wanted to create a 
diversion from its domestic problems.  The radio 
reported that on Monday, State Department Spokesman 
Sean McCormack condemned Hizbullah's attack.  Israel 
Radio quoted him as saying: "Looking at the calendar, 
you can, I think, safely assume that this is a 
deliberate provocation by Hizbullah.  I think tomorrow 
is Lebanon's independence day.  And while we certainly 
recognize Israel's right to self-defense, we urge 
restraint in taking whatever actions they deem 
necessary in order to defend themselves so that you do 
not have an escalation of tensions in the region in the 
area." 
 
Yediot quoted Labor Party sources as saying that the 
Construction and Housing Ministry, which is headed by 
Yitzhak Herzog (Labor), decided, in coordination with 
Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz, to market 310 housing 
units in Ma'aleh Adumim.  The newspaper quoted the 
Labor sources as saying that the move is meant to 
temper the impression given by the leftist views 
expressed by Peretz. 
 
The Jerusalem Post reported that the South African 
Justice Ministry defended itself on Monday and rejected 
Israeli Justice Ministry claims it had failed to 
cooperate with an ongoing bribery investigation against 
Sharon in the so-called "Cyril Kern affair." 
 
Yediot and Hatzofe reported that on the 20th 
anniversary of his arrest, convicted spy Jonathan 
Pollard demanded that Israel arrest Angie Kielczynski 
(a.k.a. Yosef Barak), who admitted in the past he had 
spied on behalf of the U.S., so that a spy swap between 
them could be made. 
 
Israel Radio reported that Benjamin Frandsen, a Los 
Angeles resident, has been convicted of the December 
2002 murders of Ben Wertzberger and Adar Ne'eman, two 
Israeli citizens whose bodies were buried north of Los 
Angeles.  Frandsen's co-defendant, Shane Huang, was 
previously convicted. 
 
Ha'aretz published the results of a survey conducted on 
Monday among Likud party members by the Amanet Group's 
Dialogue Institute: 
-"If elections to the Knesset were held today, for 
which party would you vote?"  (In Knesset seats; 
current Knesset in brackets.)  Sharon's party 30; Labor 
Party 26 (22); Likud 15 (40); Shas 10 (11); Shinui 6 
(14); United Torah Judaism 5 (5); Meretz 4 (6); Yisrael 
Beiteinu 6 (3); National Union 7(4); National Religious 
Party 4 (6); Arab parties 7 (8). 
-"Unrelated to your vote, who would you like to be 
prime minister after the elections?"  Sharon 37 
percent; Peretz 22 percent; the Likud chairman 15 
percent. 
 
The results of a Yediot/Mina Zemach (Dahaf Institute) 
poll show that Sharon's party would get 33 Knesset 
seats; the Labor Party 26; and the Likud 12. 
-The Yediot poll asked: "Did Ariel Sharon act properly 
when he left the Likud?"  Yes: 55 percent; no: 25 
percent; 20 percent were undecided. 
 
Maariv printed the results of a TNS/Teleseker Polling 
Institute survey (data for principal parties): 
-"If elections to the Knesset were held today, for 
which party would you vote?"  Sharon's party: 30 
Knesset seats; Labor: 26; Likud: 15. 
-Maariv's survey reckons that theoretically, Binyamin 
Netanyahu could count on a 50-MK coalition (Likud, the 
right, the ultra-Orthodox, Shinui) against a 70-MK 
opposition.  The poll views a possible Sharon-led 
coalition (comprising his party, Labor, Shinui, and 
Meretz) as a 71-strong one, with 49 opposition MKs. 
The survey views a possible 62-MK Peretz-led coalition 
(comprising Labor, Sharon's party, and Meretz), with 58 
opposition MKs. 
 
------------------------- 
Sharon's Political Moves: 
------------------------- 
 
                       Summary: 
                       -------- 
 
Senior columnist Dan Margalit wrote on page one of 
popular, pluralist Maariv: "On Monday, Sharon quite 
rightly celebrated his move on the basis of the opinion 
polls, which promised him a sweeping victory.... But 
everybody knows that the Israeli right wing has not yet 
taken to the streets." 
 
Independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized: "It 
appears that it is already possible to assume that 
there will be an upheaval that will reflect the desires 
of the [Israeli] public, and that the moderate camp 
will win most of the votes." 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon wrote on page one 
of the conservative, independent Jerusalem Post: "The 
name of the party he heads may change, but Sharon's 
overall diplomatic vision will stay the same.   Until 
Monday, this was a centrist vision in a right-wing 
party; as of Monday, it is a centrist vision in a 
centrist party." 
 
Liberal columnist Gideon Samet wrote in Ha'aretz: 
"[Sharon] deserves three cheers, on one important 
condition: that is, of course, that he apply the same 
tactical understanding to his strategic moves in state 
affairs." 
 
                     Block Quotes: 
                     ------------- 
 
¶I.  "Four Months Are an Eternity" 
 
Senior columnist Dan Margalit wrote on page one of 
popular, pluralist Maariv (November 22): "Admittedly 
Ariel Sharon's announcement that he was quitting the 
Likud was routine and tedious.... Nevertheless it was a 
very powerful statement, because its content was 
right....   Sharon no longer has any reason to stay in 
the Likud.  There is nothing for him there, and his 
departure is timely, if somewhat belated.  On Monday, 
he bitterly attacked the political house which he had 
built, and barely said a word against Amir Peretz. 
This was not because he does not recognize the threat 
posed by the Labor Party, but because the cause of his 
departure lay in the Likud, not the other rival.  It 
will be a life and death struggle. On Monday, Sharon 
quite rightly celebrated his move on the basis of the 
opinion polls, which promised him a sweeping victory. 
According to Monday's arithmetic, he will form the next 
government and can take down whatever partners he wants 
from the shelf.  But everybody knows that the Israeli 
right wing has not yet taken to the streets.  The 
orange T-shirts have not yet set their propaganda 
machine in motion.  They are not in anybody's pocket. 
Whom will they help?  The Likud headed by Binyamin 
Netanyahu?  Perhaps.  But perhaps they will support the 
far-right parties.  They are the driving force of right 
wing propaganda.... As of now, Sharon is the leader, 
Peretz is the surprise and Netanyahu is embarrassed, 
but four months are an eternity in terms of Israeli 
politics." 
 
II.  "A Disengagement Sequel" 
 
Independent, left-leaning Ha'aretz editorialized 
(November 22): "The departure of one-third of the 
Likud's Knesset members is indeed a critical mass; and 
the reason is not mere coincidence but rather goes to 
the heart of the matter, that is, the division of the 
land.  This is a sequel-disengagement to the Gush Katif 
disengagement, which was carried out by none other than 
the patron of the settlements and became a wake-up call 
for an entire camp.... The Likud in its present form 
has come to an end, and all that is left are the 
trademark and the demagoguery, which are arguably best 
represented by Binyamin Netanyahu.  The trademark that 
succeeded in sweeping up the masses for 30 years by 
fanning the flames of hatred for the Left may assume 
new proportions in the upcoming elections, and this 
will offer the opportunity for establishing a moderate 
bloc to its left.  Both the Labor Party headed by Amir 
Peretz and Ariel Sharon's new party will have to 
wrestle in the election campaign with the deep 
emotional ties of the Likud voters to their party, and 
will have to convince them that an automatic vote will 
not be in their best interests or those of the country. 
For the first time, there is a chance for a thorough 
change in voting patterns, for the creation of a real 
Left and Right, for a realistic examination of the 
political balance of power and for the creation of a 
sane coalition where only the settlers and their 
supporters will not be represented.  The Likud has 
begun the process of dividing the land, and Sharon has 
left it in order to continue to do what is needed.... 
Whatever the balance of power may be between the 
parties after the elections, it appears that it is 
already possible to assume that there will be an 
upheaval that will reflect the desires of the public, 
and that the moderate camp will win most of the votes." 
 
III.  "Sharon Changes the Map Again" 
 
Diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon wrote on page one 
of the conservative, independent Jerusalem Post 
(November 22): "Observers say that centrist parties in 
this country don't last long, and that a Sharon 
centrist party would also be lucky to survive more than 
one term.  But this observation misses a critical 
point. In Israel, where long-term thinking and planning 
is negligible, and where events follow one another in 
machine-gun, rat-a-tat fashion, one term is an 
eternity.  And, as Sharon demonstrated through 
disengagement, much can be done in one term.  Sharon, 
who at 77 can't realistically be thinking of that many 
more years in office, obviously wants another chance to 
further shepherd forward the diplomatic process he put 
into motion and place his imprint indelibly on where 
this country's final borders will run.  This is the 
process that Sharon has pushed forward for the last two 
years as Likud's chairman, and the reason, indeed, he 
got into so much trouble with his own party.  It is the 
same process he will now promote as head of a new 
centrist party.  The name of the party he heads may 
change, but Sharon's overall diplomatic vision will 
stay the same.   Until Monday, this was a centrist 
vision in a right-wing party; as of Monday, it is a 
centrist vision in a centrist party." 
 
IV.  "Cheers For Sharon, On One Condition..." 
 
Liberal columnist Gideon Samet wrote in Ha'aretz 
(November 22): "In his political history, Sharon has 
traveled a learning curve toward understanding that it 
is essential to deal with our Palestinian neighbors. 
But after evacuating Gaza, and the little he did in the 
West Bank, it would be irresponsible not to seize the 
raging bull of the Israel-Palestine war by the 
horns.... Even de Gaulle, with all the differences, 
reached the conclusion many had spoken about regarding 
the correct solution for Algeria.  His great 
contribution was that he made a resolute decision when 
he realized that nobody else could carry it out 
effectively.  Sharon's contribution is similar.  Before 
he could be liquidated from within the Likud, he seized 
the last opportunity in the existing political format 
to make use of his power.  For this he deserves three 
cheers, on one important condition: that is, of course, 
that he apply the same tactical understanding to his 
strategic moves in state affairs.  Very soon -- he does 
not have much time until March -- Sharon will have to 
make his line clear.... Gaza was an important signal, 
but it is not enough.  The Roadmap, which Sharon 
already hailed on Monday as a basis for action, was 
apparently so before Monday as well.  But the declared 
target date for a Palestinian state has long passed, 
and less historic decisions are also lying on the road 
map as dead letters, not only because of the 
Palestinians.  A majority of Israelis support this 
approach.  It registered much before Sharon's big bang, 
and will probably increase after it.  This is a very 
tempting opportunity, which lies to a large extent in 
the hands of one man.  Sharon must not walk out on it." 
JONES