This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

281734Z Nov 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 QUITO 002699 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTIONS, ONE YEAR OUT 
 
REF: Quito 2235 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Presidential and congressional elections 
are currently scheduled for October 2006, with a second 
round the following month.  President Palacio's efforts to 
allow voters to decide by referendum between a 
constitutional or a special national assembly to make 
fundamental changes in institutions raises the possibility 
of additional electoral activity during the year, and there 
remains an outside chance that the regular 2006 elections 
could be moved forward.  But for now, we are proceeding on 
the assumption that elections will be held as planned. 
Although Ecuador has a tradition of well-run elections, 
continuing political strains since the irregular change of 
government in April merit special international attention 
and assistance to assure free, fair, transparent and 
inclusive elections. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In keeping with our democracy promotion strategy 
(RefTel) we have organized early to help target USG 
electoral assistance.  Initial thoughts on how best to do so 
include: 
-- Monitor presidential campaigns for effects on USG 
interests, and build relationships with major presidential 
candidates and staffs; 
--Focus USG pre-electoral assistance on promoting greater 
public awareness of congressional candidates and election 
issues; 
-- Promote participation by vulnerable groups and encourage 
candidates to focus on the interests of these groups; 
-- Support OAS observation of the elections, including with 
observation mission participation, while supporting local 
civic organizations with proven capacities to monitor and 
oversee the electoral process; 
-- Let the OAS take the lead on technical assistance to the 
electoral tribunal. 
End Summary. 
 
The Presidential Field 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ecuador's political landscape is deeply fractured, 
and the rapid succession of political and economic crises of 
the last few years has left voters jaded and skeptical of 
the possibility for positive change.  Most parties are 
dominated by a strong leader or small coterie.  They are 
more pragmatic than ideological, seeking to advance their 
leaders' political or economic interests.  Most parties have 
little internal democracy, a thin vertical structure, a 
narrow regional base, and relatively few active members. 
Unfortunately, given the current political situation, these 
conditions are unlikely to change before the 2006 election. 
 
¶4.  (U) Given the state of the political parties, the 
elections are likely to be focused more on personalities 
than issues.  Ecuador's media are part of the problem, as 
they do little to help frame a positive agenda for the 
politicians or hold government officials accountable.  Polls 
show that voters are most concerned about low wages and the 
cost of living, unemployment, crime and security, health and 
education.   None of the parties or their leaders appear 
ideologically or politically inclined to champion the 
reforms needed to reduce corruption, increase 
competitiveness, create jobs, improve civilian-military 
relations or strengthen relations with the United States. 
Recent history shows that populist appeals to the poor and 
less educated majority is the best path toward election. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Presidential candidates will not formally register 
until July, but already several have declared their 
intentions to seek party nominations.  These are likely to 
include a clutch of coastal-based candidates, including 
independent former VP Leon Roldos (supported by the 
Socialist Party), Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN), Jaime Damerval 
(CFP), and the unnamed PSC and PRE candidates.  In the 
highlands, in addition to the unnamed ID candidate, 
aspirants include Auki Tituana (Pachakutik) and populist 
former Finance Minister Rafael Correa (also seeking 
Pachakutik support).  The nascent Bolivarian movement is 
likely to put up a candidate, or support Correa. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Notably absent at this early stage of the race are 
candidates for the two largest parties (PSC and ID).  Both 
Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot (PSC) and Quito mayor Paco 
Moncayo (ID) are very popular in their cities, but publicly 
deny any intention to run in 2006.  Around ten candidates 
are likely to enroll in the first round of presidential 
elections.  Early polls show Roldos in front with 30% 
support, followed by Noboa, with 15%, but the selection of 
PSC and ID candidates is expected to alter the field 
considerably. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) A final wild card candidate worth mentioning is ex- 
president Lucio Gutierrez, currently incarcerated in Quito 
awaiting prosecution on charges of undermining Ecuador's 
national security.  Gutierrez claims Congress' move to 
remove him was unconstitutional and that he should be 
permitted to seek the presidency in 2006.   Gutierrez is 
likely to remain in jail until a new Supreme or 
Constitutional Court can rule on his case sometime in 2006. 
Although widely discredited with the middle classes and 
elites, his ability to re-ignite some measure of populist 
support cannot be entirely dismissed. 
 
Electoral Timeline and Mechanics 
-------------------------------- 
¶8. (U) On July 16, 2006, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal 
(TSE) will officially convoke the elections for October 15. 
Candidates may register from July 16 through August 15. 
Advertising campaigns cannot begin until August 29 and all 
campaigning must stop on October 13.  If, in this first 
round, no presidential candidate wins at least 40% of the 
vote with at least a ten-point lead over the next candidate, 
or more than 50% of the vote, then a run-off between the top 
two candidates will be scheduled for November 26. (Not since 
1978, when elections resumed after two decades of military 
rule, has a candidate won in the first round.) The new 
president will be sworn in January 15, 2007.  One hundred 
provincial deputies will be elected to Congress.  The new 
Congress will be sworn in on January 5, for four years. 
Voters will also elect half of the municipal and provincial 
councilors, and Andean Parliamentarians; but mayors and 
provincial prefects are not up for election until 2008. 
 
¶9. (U) There are approximately nine million registered 
voters in Ecuador.  Voting is obligatory for citizens aged 
18-65 years, and optional for senior citizens and 
Ecuadorians living abroad (through Ecuador's consulates). 
Military, police, and convicted criminals are excluded from 
voting.  Each of Ecuador's 22 provinces is entitled to at 
least two deputies in Congress, plus an additional deputy 
for every 200,000 inhabitants.  Congressional deputies do 
not represent individual districts, but their entire 
province.  At least half of the incumbent deputies are 
expected to seek reelection. To do so, they must step down 
July 16 and be replaced by their alternates.  Leadership 
positions in the new Congress will be determined based on 
the 2006 election results. 
 
¶10. (U) The TSE administers the voting and enforces the 
campaign rules, including new spending limits. The TSE has 
requested a $39.3 million budget for this year's elections. 
The TSE's seven members are drawn from the political parties 
represented in Congress according to the votes gained in the 
last election. The TSE appoints provincial electoral 
tribunals (TPE) for each of the 22 provinces. Their role is 
to run the election in each province. In turn, each TPE 
appoints a Voting Station Committee (JRV). The JRVs organize 
the voting stations, distribute the voting slips, and 
forward the uncounted votes and other official paperwork to 
the TPE. 
 
Other Donor Assistance 
---------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) To prepare for the 2006 elections the TSE and the 
OAS are signing a new agreement that includes assistance to 
implement electronic voting; to update the voter registry; 
to implement the vote abroad; and to update security and 
software.  OAS assistance is likely to address most of the 
TSE's technical needs for the 2006 elections, allowing us to 
 
SIPDIS 
focus on other electoral support issues.  Most other donors 
are waiting for the results of the referendum effort and 
possible political reforms before deciding how or if to 
support the 2006 election process. 
 
Embassy Electoral Strategy 
-------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (U) In October, a year away from elections, we formed a 
mission-wide Election Working Group chaired by the DCM and 
staffed by POL and USAID, with participation by PAS, DAO, 
and AmConsulate Guayaquil.  Initial discussion has focused 
on how the government's reform proposals would affect the 
2006 elections, and USG strategy to promote free and fair 
elections. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) With the government's referendum proposal stuck 
in Congress, chances have diminished for a national 
constitutional or constituent assembly that could propose 
structural reforms (e.g. bicameralism, moving congressional 
elections to the second round, imposing primaries on 
political parties, etc.).  Congress has pledged to seek its 
own reforms by consensus, beginning with a reduction in the 
waiting period of one year between the two required debates 
of constitutional changes that is currently mandated by the 
constitution. There have been calls to create a new 
electoral section of the Supreme Court to judge electoral 
disputes, but structural change is unlikely to occur before 
the 2006 elections.  IRI is currently conducting political 
party strengthening in Ecuador as part of a regional 
project.  After the election, we will consider sponsoring 
training for newly elected officials on tools they will need 
for effective and responsible performance (legislative 
drafting, economic analysis of legislation, how to create a 
responsible effective legislative staff, etc.). 
 
TSE Assistance on the Back Burner 
 
SIPDIS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Political uncertainties, Nethercutt restrictions, 
OAS assistance already pledged, and the fact that election 
administration has generally been adequate lessen the need 
for USAID to provide direct support to the Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal (TSE).  The OAS's continued support to the TSE, 
dating back to 1999, has the advantage of offering an 
"international umbrella" to resolve problems within the 
institution.  Leftover funds in the USAID agreement with the 
international electoral NGO "CAPEL" (less than $100K), along 
with some $200K of FY 04 funds, could be used to help the 
TSE provide electoral training, establish a training unit or 
 
SIPDIS 
expand public outreach. 
 
Monitor, Don't Invest In, Presidential Elections 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Given the political sensitivities related to USG 
involvement in elections at the presidential level and the 
likelihood that political parties will nominate their party 
heads in a predictably non-democratic fashion, it would be 
neither politically wise nor programmatically effective to 
invest significant USAID resources in public presidential 
debates or other high-profile activities.  The Ambassador 
and other Embassy sections will nevertheless conduct 
outreach to all major candidates and their teams in the run- 
up to elections, offering dialogue on bilateral issues.  We 
will also consider encouraging one or both run-off 
candidates to visit the U.S. at some point, as ex-President 
Gutierrez did in 2002. 
 
Focus Resources on Promoting Greater Public Awareness 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Improving the performance of Congress is critical 
to creating an effective legislature in Ecuador and to 
establishing the checks and balances required to create a 
truly democratic state in Ecuador.  Focusing USG efforts on 
promoting voter education and public awareness about 
congressional candidates could help encourage Ecuadorians to 
elect more effective and responsible representatives.  To 
this end, USAID will support the Ecuadorian NGO "Citizen 
Participation" in its efforts to promote voter education, 
congressional candidate debates, campaign expense 
monitoring, quick counts, and domestic monitoring. 
Publicizing compliance with campaign finance disclosure 
rules and promoting citizen scrutiny of these submissions 
would also promote anti-corruption goals.  A similar 
strategy worked well during the 2004 local elections, but we 
will closely monitor perceptions adapt our strategy to 
minimize the chances of USG assistance becoming an issue in 
congressional races. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) To help instill a culture of electoral 
participation and family discussion of national issues, PAS 
plans to support another Ecuadorian NGO that is organizing 
mock youth elections on general issues prior to the actual 
election.  More broadly, we hope to help promote democratic 
stability by encouraging voters to know the candidates 
better, to encourage acceptance of elected representatives 
(including the president) for the full term for which they 
have been elected, barring criminal misdeeds.  To do so, we 
will consider promoting issue-debates of interest to the 
electorate, sponsoring U.S. speakers or issue polling, and 
possibly supporting the publication of the voting records of 
the candidates that have already held office, if available. 
To encourage sound economic policies, we will consider 
sponsoring forums for candidates to participate in to 
discuss economic issues/policies. 
 
Promote Participation by Vulnerable Groups 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶18.  (SBU) USAID is already providing small grants to 
Ecuadorian organizations that have promoted voting and voter 
awareness by indigenous and Afro-Ecuadorian groups and could 
provide more as elections approach.  In addition, the 
Department (DRL) has awarded a $300,000 grant to the 
international NGO IFES to promote electoral participation by 
Afro-Ecuadorian groups. 
 
¶19.  (SBU) Twelve percent of the total Ecuadorian population 
suffers from some type of disability.  Although most voting 
booths are not accessible to the physically disabled, 
election officials have typically brought the ballots 
outside the booth to the individual so that they can vote. 
The blind have typically been allowed to have a 
relative/companion assist them in voting.  The main issue 
for the disabled is getting to the polls, rather than 
getting inside.  Public transportation is not accessible to 
the physically disabled and few have access to modified 
vehicles.  The USG can help make the elections more 
inclusive by working with others to provide transportation 
to the voting centers. 
 
Mission Election Observation 
---------------------------- 
 
¶20.  (SBU) Ecuador in general and the TSE in particular have 
the reputation of being able to hold and administer free and 
fair elections, but we continue to believe OAS election 
observation is critical to guarantee electoral legitimacy. 
Local civic organizations also have proven capacities to 
monitor and oversee the electoral process, including through 
quick counts and overseeing campaign spending.  Given this 
existing local capacity, only unforeseen circumstances would 
justify mobilizing international observers beyond the OAS 
effort.  To the extent feasible, the USG should mount its 
own election observation efforts, including: 
 
--  Reach out to vulnerable groups to ensure the elections 
are inclusive.  Monitor transportation efforts on election 
day. 
--  Attend congressional debates throughout the country. 
--  Participate in workshops where candidate disclosure 
compliance is discussed 
--  Observe voting in voting booths and the vote tally under 
the auspices of the OAS mission. 
 
How would we measure success? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶21.  (SBU) Our political interests include working with any 
eventual president, and preventing further irregular changes 
of president.  The next government's credibility will depend 
on whether it achieves its electoral promises.  Its initial 
democratic legitimacy, however, will depend on the fairness 
and voter participation rates in the election.  In other 
countries, voter registration and turnout are typically used 
to measure whether the elections were successful.  In the 
case of Ecuador, however, voting is mandatory, and sanctions 
are incurred if people do not vote, and certification of 
voting is need to access a wide range of government 
services.  To measure voter interest, it is more useful to 
compare the number of blank and invalid ballots with those 
of past years.