This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000704 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR G: U/S DOBRIANSKY, EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VCHA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 
TAGS: TBIO ECON PREL SOCI NZ
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND CONCERNED ABOUT AVIAN INFLUENZA THREAT 
 
REF: A. SECSTATE 153802 
     ¶B. IIR 6 869 0040 05 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David R. Burnett, 
for reasons 1.4(B) and (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: New Zealand is taking very seriously the 
threat of avian influenza, and an inter-ministerial group 
meets biweekly to discuss preparations.  There are also 
numerous subgroups of officials who are strategizing on how 
the country would address the public health, economic, 
social, and other consequences of an epidemic here.  New 
Zealand is coordinating closely with WHO, Australian 
officials, and others on flu preparations.  Despite this 
work, an official heavily involved in the planning said that 
the country's ability to monitor the spread of avian flu 
elsewhere is limited, especially in those countries not known 
for accurate reporting.  GNZ would welcome U.S. information 
(including intelligence) about outbreaks anywhere in the 
world.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) On September 1, ADCM discussed New Zealand's avian 
flu strategy with Marlene Castle, External Assessments Bureau 
(EAB).  EAB is located in the Prime Minister's office and is 
responsible for monitoring and analyzing world events for the 
PM and Cabinet officials.  Castle is a chemical and 
biological weapons expert and has been following the avian 
flu epidemic for the last two years.  She is also heavily 
involved in GNZ's contingency planning should a pandemic 
strike here, and regularly briefs the Prime Minister on the 
disease's trajectory.  (Comment: Castle showed ADCM a 
returned copy of her August briefing memo; the PM had 
underlined several passages and had commented  in the margins 
that the memo's contents had great implications for New 
Zealand.  End Comment.)  Castle said that since early this 
year, it had been more and more apparent to EAB that the 
avian flu could become a pandemic.  An "Interdepartmental 
Pandemic Planning" group was formed in June and has met every 
two weeks since then. 
 
¶3.  (C) The interdepartmental group is coordinated by the 
Ministry of Health in close cooperation with the Officials 
Committee for Domestic and External Security Coordination 
(ODESC), comprised of senior GNZ officials from the Prime 
Minister's office and other ministries.  EAB Director David 
Kersey has been seconded to ODESC for this purpose, and 
currently spends only 10% of his time at EAB.  In addition to 
the overall group, there are a variety of subgroups looking 
at contingency planning in various sectors should an outbreak 
strike.  These include border controls, education, social 
implications, etc.  The group and its related subgroups 
include virtually every government department, including the 
Prime Minister's Office, Police, Fire service, Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs and Trade, Education Department, Labour 
Department, Civil Defence, Transport (civil aviation and 
maritime), Inland Revenue, and the Treasury. 
 
¶4.  (C) The groups have been instructed to plan for the 
worst-case scenario.  The education group, for example, is 
looking at when and how to shut down all schools in New 
Zealand.  Others are looking how to maintain essential 
services such as telecommunications, information technology, 
energy, banking, the provision of food, and the continuation 
of non-flu related medical services. 
 
¶5.  (C) There is of course also a group developing a health 
plan to deal with the outbreak itself.  The plan is based on 
WHO guidelines.  Castle said that GNZ officials involved in 
the plan are in "constant touch" with WHO as well as 
Australian officials.  (One Kiwi health official had just 
returned from Australia, Castle said.)  GNZ also is looking 
to obtain enough antivirals to treat 20% of the population. 
They have half of this supply already, Castle said.  GNZ 
officials are also looking with interest at the development 
of vaccines in the United States and Australia.  Given that 
the vaccines will not be ready for some time, the government 
is focusing attention on how to stop the disease from 
entering New Zealand, restricting its spread if it does, and 
managing the situation if the outbreak spreads.  Officials 
are also considering how to take care of New Zealand 
officials and defense forces who may be exposed to avian flu 
overseas. 
 
¶6.  (C) The "external" subgroup is also looking at Pacific 
Island governments' preparations for a possible pandemic, 
especially the Cook Islands and Nuie, which are 
self-governing in free association with New Zealand. 
Officials are also concentrating on Samoa and Tonga, given 
these island's strong connection with New Zealand. 
 
¶7.  (C) The planning group is developing a public education 
campaign, including a website that Castle said should be in 
place soon.  Other steps are being considered, including 
pamphlets and the inclusion of information in phone 
directories.  The aim is to educate without inducing panic. 
Castle estimated that the Government's planning was about 50% 
completed so far.  The aim is to have all planning completed 
by late October or early November. 
 
¶8.  (C) Castle expressed concern that the reporting of 
disease incidence by Russia, China, Hong Kong, and countries 
in SE Asia is not accurate.  She said GNZ would appreciate 
any information the United States could provide -- open 
source or otherwise -- about outbreaks in these and other 
countries.  Castle said she has already discussed this and 
other avian flu-related issues with State Department 
officials, and has greatly appreciated this exchange.  She 
said her monthly reports to the Prime Minister are already 
being provided to U.S. analysts through separate channels. 
 
------------------- 
Contact Information 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) New Zealand's key senior contact on Avian Flu issues 
is External Assessment Bureau (EAB) Director David Kersey. 
The best working level contact is EAB analyst Marlene Castle. 
 Although Kersey and Castle are both with the External 
Assessments Bureau, Kersey is working on avian flu issues in 
the Prime Minister's Department for most of the time.  he 
can, however, still be reached via EAB.  Emboffs are in 
regular contact with both Kersey and Castle. 
 
The External Assessment Bureau is located at: 
 
Reserve Bank Building 
2 The Terrace 
Wellington 
 
(tel)  64 4 915 2900 
(fax)  64 4 915 2940 
 
Mailing Address is: 
 
External Assessments Bureau 
PO Box 18099 
Wellington 
 
 
Burnett