This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WELLINGTON 000696 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, EAP/EP, INR/EAP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA AND MICHAEL GREEN 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREL NZ
SUBJECT: NZ'S "PRESIDENTIAL RACE:" FOCUS ON PM CLARK AND 
DON BRASH 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 695 
 
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David R. Burnett, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary:  As reftel notes, in this undecided 
campaign, the personality of the major parties' leaders may 
really influence voters' decisions.  The following are two 
brief snapshots of what's on offer.   End Summary. 
-------------------------- 
Prime Minister Helen Clark 
-------------------------- 
¶2.  (C) Clark is the consummate career politician, who has 
been accused of acting with the sort of arrogance that can 
come with being the largely uncontested leader of the country 
for the last two terms. She often contrasts her depth of 
political experience with that of Brash, whom she tries to 
portray as a political neophyte.  Indeed her capability to 
run the country's affairs is widely recognized, but this is 
not to say that her personality wins over the voters.  Her 
length of political service is also both a liability and an 
asset: Kiwis begrudgingly respect her experience, yet at the 
same time are suspicious of her ability to shield herself 
from association with her Government's errors. 
¶3.  (C) Clark's grasp of policy detail is positively 
Herculean and has been put to good use at her weekly press 
conferences and now in the election debates. Her political 
instincts are widely recognized, despite some recent 
decisions clearly being on the wrong side of public opinion, 
notably the woefully received 2005 Budget which failed to 
provide much anticipated and desired tax relief to the middle 
class.  Clark is faithful to the concept of centralized power 
within government.  All policy is vetted by her office and is 
tightly controlled, as is the campaign.  Very few are allowed 
into the inner circle. As Prime Minister she is a very 
controlling manager, bordering on obsessively so. 
¶4.  (C) Clark avoids obvious falsehoods and has by and large 
supervised a more open government and disciplined erring 
ministers. Yet she also habitually shies away from 
close-to-the-bone truth, as evidenced with two noted 
incidents.  In the first, she signed a painting donated to 
charity as her own during the last election campaign, even 
though it later came to light it was the work of another. 
This campaign season, the country witnessed the trial of a 
number of police officers accused of rushing the PM's 
motorcade at dangerous speeds to catch a flight to a rugby 
match.  In both instances, Clark was less than forthcoming 
with taking responsibility for her actions or that of those 
who ultimately fell under her command.  She very quickly cut 
support from Labour MP John Tamihere when he was implicated 
in financial improprieties.  One gets the feeling that she is 
not the sort of leader to have a Truman-esque  the buck 
stops here, plaque on her desk. 
¶5.  (C) Clark is no shrinking violet. Even before hard-edged, 
grizzled union men put her through the fire in her early days 
in the Labour Party, she was a forthright and resolute 
student activist. Clark was at the forefront of a group of 
iron-willed feminist MPs who stormed the Labour party in the 
early eighties despite their male counterpart's skepticism. 
Many of these MPs remain in politics and sit at the right 
hand of Clark. 
¶6.  (C) Clark is goal orientated and usually meticulous in 
her planning. A demanding task-master, she exacts high 
standards and a work ethic from staff and colleagues. Despite 
the Labour Party having a history of turning on their young, 
Clark has a very loyal following and her inner circle has 
been notably cohesive since she became leader of the party 
(her Chief of Staff, and gatekeeper, Heather Simpson, has 
been at Clark's side since she was a backbencher. Simpson, 
often referred to as the second most powerful person is New 
Zealand, would walk across hot coals for Clark and is so 
close to her that she can often speak on the behalf of Clark, 
privately of course). 
¶7.  (C) Clark carefully weighs her arena, timing, message and 
the appropriate messenger.  For the first, head-to-head 
debate with Brash, Clark nixed planned, dual radio-television 
coverage, favoring instead only the radio format.  While 
Brash is no fashion plate, Clark is universally recognized as 
not "camera friendly."  When the media pressed her for weeks 
on an election date, Clark obstinately responded in refrain 
that she would make the date known "in due course."  When 
queried in Parliament, Clark routinely repeats limited, 
scripted points, and refuses to be pushed into further 
explanation or into ground that she does not control -- quite 
different from Brash's manner in which he appears compelled 
to explain.  However, Clark is quick and sharp with criticism 
if she believes she has either evidence to back her up or 
sufficient cover that evidence is unnecessary, such as citing 
confidential meeting notes which Labour claims shows that 
 
SIPDIS 
Brash has a secret agenda to eliminate the anti-nuclear 
legislation.  When she has neither evidence nor sufficient 
cover, Clark deploys Labour ministers to make the accusations 
and avoids potential, personal blow-back.  Recent examples 
include Education Minister Mallard's unsubstantiated claims 
of U.S. financing of the National campaign and recent posters 
from Young Labour depicted President Bush alongside Brash, 
conveying that Brash would take New Zealand into Iraq. 
¶8.  (C) Although Clark is often viewed as cold and somewhat 
remote to the aspirations of families - she has no children - 
Clark and husband Peter Davies have a close bond. 
Furthermore, she is very close to her parents, sisters and 
their children and often holidays with them. Her physical 
appearance is often mocked as dowdy and drab, despite 
periodic efforts, especially at election time, to inject some 
glamour into her looks. Clark does not appear to take such 
mockery to heart and appears to succumb to such "extreme 
makeovers" only at the behest of her image gurus. But by and 
large, she gives the impression that she is very comfortable 
in her own skin and is more interested in substance over 
style.  Still, Clark's exterior armor is not without its 
chinks, and her rare political missteps often flow from her 
personal than her political side.  She has complained that 
National's billboards portray her as "sleepy and grumpy." 
Two weeks following a debate, Clark publicly lamented abuse 
suffered from National supporters among the studio audience. 
Recently, she entered a cockpit of an Air New Zealand flight 
to confront a pilot who -- incorrectly -- blamed her for the 
flight's delay. 
¶9.  (C) Perhaps a holdover from her upbringing in a very 
frugal household, Clark exhibits a Presbyterian streak in her 
determination to run balanced budgets. Arguably, Clark's 
greatest strength is in her intellect (recognized by Brash 
himself during a recent leader's debate). She has also 
demonstrated coolness under pressure and steely ability to 
withstand assaults that would have felled most mere mortals. 
Clark's greatest weakness is her reserve. Coupled with her 
mental agility and her passion for elite or solitary 
recreations (opera and cross-country skiing) and her 
childlessness, ordinary folk sense distance. Despite this, 
many who know her intimately maintain that the private Clark 
can be funny, warm and open, and we at the Embassy have found 
the same. These traits, however, often do not come across on 
television. 
------------- 
Dr. Don Brash 
------------- 
¶10.  (C) Brash portrays an awkward humanism that opens the 
door for the middle ground vote.  In campaign footage, he 
always wears a tie -- a sometimes striking contrast such as 
when he awkwardly slipped behind the wheel of a dragster or 
when he has appeared side-by-side a hard-hat wearing 
contingent to promote his party's tax cut policy.  While his 
wire-rimmed glasses, tie and overall professorial demeanor 
suggest that he lies somewhat removed from the "mainstream" 
Kiwi voter that he courts, he is nevertheless present and 
engaging these mainstream -- or more precisely, swing voters. 
 Is it having an effect?   Recent polling suggests movement 
of "modest" income voters NZD 21 to 33 thousand; USD 15 to 24 
thousand) from Labour to National (a swing as much as 15 
points by one poll). 
¶11.  (C) Brash can exude authority, gravitas and, very 
nearly, power. Embassy officers have been struck how much 
more confident he has become about his own political skills 
during this campaign.  However, all this can be washed away 
when Brash is cornered by a difficult question requiring a 
succinct and straight forward answer. In such cases, he often 
flounders and in doing so loses some of the key qualities 
many look to in a leader, thus devaluing his currency.  In 
particular, Brash has fumbled, repeatedly, on matters of 
policy and recollection of events concerning foreign 
relations, asset sales, and the influence of outside 
interests, such as business and religious groups.  His 
bumbling results from -- among other things -- his relatively 
limited experience with political campaigning and the 
political fray; his apparent, compelling need to explain 
(often with too much detail) as demonstrated on his 
equivocating on asset sales in a recent debate; and remnants 
of old-fashioned (though not necessarily outmoded) values. 
As such, he has in part lived up to Labour's label of him as 
an amateur.  On the other hand, Brash portrays a campaign and 
policy platform based on values personally held rather than 
policy objectives based on polls.  Kiwis respond to this, 
even when Brash expresses himself ineptly.  Comments that he 
took it easy on Clark in a debate because she was a woman and 
that he is not a feminist, have, ironically, seemed to 
capture several points of the woman vote from Labour. 
Brash's gentlemanly way may also portray his general distaste 
of and aversion to negative campaign politics.) 
¶12.  (C) Opinion is split on whether Brash is brave or just 
plain naive in the way he at times acts contrary to the 
conventional wisdom of a politician. (He entered politics 
only in 2003.) Despite Labour trying to paint him as 
dishonest and duplicitous, Brash has made the "honest" 
appraisals of New Zealand's current state of affairs a 
hallmark of his leadership, such as the state of race 
relations as articulated in his speeches on Maori issues 
("Orewa I and II").  Brash has even said that he will be 
honest "even if it hurts politically," although ironically 
this week he belatedly admitted he had in fact known of plans 
by a Christian group to distribute anti-Labour and Greens 
pamphlets, despite having denied this.   Even so, in his 
short time in politics Brash has made forthright, even 
courageous, remarks on many issues considered sacrosanct in 
New Zealand politics (again race relations and, although less 
explicitly, the anti-nuclear legislation). 
¶13.  (C) Another interesting aspect of the campaign has been 
National's repetition of a clip following Brash's January 
2004 Orewa I speech.  The clip shows a bit of turf striking 
him in the face -- literal mudslinging.  The image would 
likely portray leadership weakness to the American eye, but 
curiously, the "average" Kiwi appears to perceive this as 
testament to Brash's willingness to highlight the need to 
address the hard issues of race relations rather than to 
white-wash the differences around the edges. 
¶14.  (C) Recently, Helen Clark, Don Brash and several other 
candidates appeared in a series of photographs, each holding 
the same baby.  Brash happily kissed the baby, but Clark 
nearly held the baby at arm's length.  The collection of 
photos exhibited what is a silent theme in the election, 
important to many New Zealanders -- that Brash better 
understands the dilemmas of families.  He has spoken openly 
about the failure of his first marriage, has children from 
that marriage, and commented freely on his marriage to his 
Singapore-born wife.  His wife has featured in party 
materials, and his daughter has appeared on the campaign 
trail with him.  In part, the connection to family is novel 
because campaigning with family in New Zealand is not 
traditional.  The subtle message is that Brash -- though not 
of the mainstream -- is very near to it, unlike the 
relatively distant Clark. 
¶15.  (C) An analysis of Brash's core self is by no means a 
linear exercise. He is somewhat of a paradox. Although a 
classical liberal, free marketer and economic rationalist, he 
voted for the bill that decriminalized prostitution.  He is 
divorced and remarried; in fact he cheated on his first wife. 
 Brash's residual Presbyterianism is of the liberal variety, 
not the stern Scottish brand.  And his "Christian socialism," 
which defined his formative years and is a holdover from his 
father's politics, lingers in a residual social conscience. 
Rather than a "no" or even "minimal" government advocate, he 
is a "limited" government man. The government, he has 
declared, "has a vital role, including funding education and 
providing a social safety net." 
Burnett