This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS BRASILIA 001874 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: LULA'S APPROVAL INCREASES AMIDST 
CORRUPTION SCANDAL 
 
REF: A. BRASILIA 1819 
     ¶B. BRASILIA 1849 
     ¶C. BRASILIA 1867 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY.  A Sensus survey published in Brazil on July 
12 reported a 2.5% increase in President Lula's approval 
rating since May.  While ongoing investigations of scandals 
have greatly tarnished his PT party's image over the past few 
weeks, Lula thus far has been successful in disassociating 
himself from the corruption allegations and remains the 
front-runner in the 2006 presidential elections.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
FAITH IN THE PRESIDENT, NOT THE PARTY 
------------------------------------- 
 
2.(U) The July 12 CNT-Sensus survey indicates that President 
Lula's approval rating rose from 57% in May to 60% in July. 
The survey was conducted between July 5-7, following the 
series of corruption revelations that started on May 22, but 
before some of the more recent revelations involving Lula's 
Workers' Party (PT) (reftels).  When asked who was more 
involved in the corruption scandals, the voters replied: 
Congress (35%); the PT (31%); and Lula (12%).  Almost half of 
those surveyed--46%--felt Lula was unaware of the vote-buying 
scheme, while 34% felt he knew about it.  The Sensus results 
coincided with the Ipsos-Opinion survey taken June 21-29 and 
published in the weekly Veja magazine.  According to this 
survey, 45% said that "Lula knew nothing about the corruption 
scandal"; 39% said he "knew something but did nothing to 
correct the situation"; and only 16% thought that Lula "knew 
about the scandal and was involved."  The Ipsos-Opinion 
survey also found that 55% believed Lula to be an honest 
politician, while only 36% deemed the PT to be honest. 
According to Sensus poll projections for the October 2006 
elections, Lula would defeat Jose Serra, PSDB mayor of Sao 
Paulo and Lula's opponent in 2002, by a margin of nearly 14 
points. 
 
COMMENT: 
-------- 
 
3.(SBU) Despite the corruption scandal, Lula is riding out 
the storm, averaging approval ratings comparable to when he 
first came into office.  These surveys indicate that his 
personal image has not yet been irreparably tarnished by the 
corruption scandal.  If he is successful in cleaning house 
with his ongoing cabinet shuffle (reftel 1867) and keeps the 
economy on track, his candidacy for the October 2006 election 
should remain viable.  This is assuming, though, that no new 
revelations emerge tying Lula more directly to the 
impropriety, and that continuous media coverage of the crisis 
does not change voters' perception of their president's 
credibility. 
CHICOLA