This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 001507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KCOR PREL PHUM EC
SUBJECT: ROADBLOCKS MANY TO GUTIERREZ RETURN 
 
¶1. SUMMARY.  Former Ecuador President Lucio Gutierrez has 
announced his intention to return to Ecuador to confront 
those who deposed him.  An imminent Gutierrez return appears 
unlikely, however, owing to the myriad of charges, criminal 
and otherwise, filed against him.  The ex-president's 
political enemies -- to include Palacio Administration 
officials, members of Congress, and human rights leaders -- 
accuse Gutierrez of human rights abuses, corruption, and even 
"crimes against humanity" (before the International Criminal 
Court).  Working in Gutierrez's favor is Ecuadorian law, 
which provides presidents limited immunity, and the absence 
of a Supreme Court, the correct venue to try the former chief 
executive for acts committed while in office.  Hurting hopes 
for a homecoming, Minister of Government Mauricio Gandara 
claims Gutierrez has "attacked the security of the state" 
with his recent anti-Palacio rhetoric.  A final impediment, 
Quito's "forajidos," middle-class street protesters who 
chased Gutierrez from power, aren't likely to welcome the 
ex-president like MacArthur to the Philippines.  End summary. 
 
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Pick a Charge, Any Charge 
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¶2.  From the United States June 8, Gutierrez proclaimed his 
desire to return to Ecuador and "reclaim what was taken from 
me."  Following last week's appearance at the InterAmerican 
Dialogue, however, Ecuador's latest ex-president has lowered 
his profile, and we have heard nothing regarding upcoming 
southbound travel. 
 
¶3.  Disincentives over a Gutierrez return are many. 
Ecuador's Attorney General office (Fiscalia) is tracking 22 
cases against Gutierrez administration officials regarding 
alleged police repression of protesters April 19-20.  Just 
one, however, targets the former president directly, accusing 
Gutierrez of complicity in the death (by heart attack) of 
Chilean forajido Julio Garcia.  In connection with this case, 
current Administration Secretary General Luis Herreria Bonett 
claims a detention order against Gutierrez exists; according 
to Ecuador's criminal procedures code, he continues, police 
must obey it.  Other Fiscalia cases reference embezzlement 
within the Social Welfare Ministry during Gutierrez's tenure, 
poor police protection provided to the president's political 
opponents, and Gutierrez cousin/confidant Renan Borbua's 
supposed incitement of riotous counter-marches during the 
administration's dying days. 
 
¶4.  Members of Congress are not silent, either.  They claim 
the ex-president misused public funds in support of his 
Patriotic Society Party's 2004 electoral campaign, contracted 
Coastal thugs to combat the forajidos in Quito streets, and 
personally benefited from funds generated during Ecuador's 
hosting of the 2004 Miss Universe pageant.  They have 
demanded the Fiscalia take action and have debated 
legislation changes prohibiting "constitutionally" removed 
presidents from again assuming public office. 
 
¶5.    The Latin American Association for Human Rights 
(ALDHU), a left-leaning NGO, accuses Gutierrez of 70 cases of 
violation of human rights in connection with forajido 
"suppression."  Ecuador's Anti-Corruption Commission (CCCC) 
alleges the ex-president utilized public funds to support 
Zero Corruption, a violent, pro-Gutierrez group whose members 
briefly stormed the offices of USG-funded electoral NGO 
Citizen Participation.  The CCCC also claims Gutierrez 
benefited from "irregularities" in government oil contracts. 
 
¶6.  Not to be outdone, the Foreign Minister Antonio Parra has 
launched an internal investigation into allegations that 
Gutierrez administration co-opted ministry staff into 
offering several presidential relatives positions in the 
GoE's overseas missions.  Concurrent MFA inquiries concern 
the alleged sale of over 6000 Ecuadorian visas to unqualified 
candidates.  The Fiscalia is cooperating with the latter 
investigation. 
 
¶7.  Gutierrez even faces legal problems originating outside 
Ecuador.  NGOs and Monsignor Luis Alberto Luna, a prominent 
Gutierrez opponent, have gone before the ICC in Brussels, 
accusing the former president of crimes against humanity. 
Said crimes include his "systematic attacks on peaceful 
civilian demonstrators," "destruction of judicial 
independence in Ecuador," "attempts to squelch freedom of 
expression and assembly," and "policy of denying indigenous 
populations their full rights." 
 
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Quito "Street" Not Amused 
------------------------- 
 
¶8.  Middle-class Quitenos assembling en masse in the 
capital's streets played a great role in Gutierrez,s April 
20 downfall.  Demanding that "todos se vayan" ("all must 
go"), these forajidos demanded of the Palacio government 
swift change and more direct democracy.  There has been 
little of either, however.  While the forajidos' 
dissatisfaction has yet to manifest itself it renewed street 
protests, a Gutierrez return undoubtedly would prove a 
catalyst for action.  Lynch mobs demanding the former 
president's head are not unimaginable. 
 
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Former President not Unarmed, However 
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¶9.  Gutierrez's legal team likely sees hope in Ecuadorian 
law, which confers numerous privileges to chief executives. 
Legal experts note that prosecuting an ex-president for acts 
committed in office requires Congressional authorization, for 
example (while the current legislative lineup leans decidedly 
against Gutierrez, potential turncoats are many).  Similarly, 
the absence of a Supreme Court works in Gutierrez's favor. 
Although Ecuador's highest law is mute on the point, 
constitutionalists assert that only the Supreme Court can try 
presidents, sitting or former.  Despite quick legislative 
action to craft a process to fill the Court, predictable 
infighting has made progress so far glacial, and Ecuador's 
justice system will remain headless for months. 
 
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Leaving Office Uncovers Achilles Heel 
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¶10.  Aware that convicting Gutierrez for "crimes" committed 
while in office appears difficult, Mauricio Gandara, 
Ecuador's current minister of government (interior 
minister-equivalent) and a long-time Gutierrez-basher, has 
focused on the ex-president's recent activities.  Gandara 
argues Gutierrez "attacked the security of the state" when, 
in comments made in the United States, the former president 
asserted he was deposed in a coup.  Citing Article 130 of 
Ecuador's criminal code, the government minister June 13 
filed a complaint against Gutierrez at the Fiscalia. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶11.  While in office, Lucio Gutierrez regularly floated 
poorly staffed political trial balloons (his volunteering of 
Ecuadorian territory for GoC-FARC negotiations comes 
immediately to mind).  Announcing his "imminent" return 
appears the latest in the series.  Other than stoking his 
minuscule base in hometown Tena, deep in the Amazon, the 
former president's "I shall return" provoked little positive 
groundswell.  And regardless of presidential immunities or 
the non-existence of the Supreme Court, we'd wager Gutierrez 
would be staring through bars )- or worse, lying in a 
hospital bed -- if he showed up soon in Quito.  END COMMENT. 
Kenney