This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS  ZAGREB 000827 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO, BENEDICT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS: HDZ FALTERS, OPPOSITION GAINS 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 792 
 
     ¶B. ZAGREB 625 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Strong personalities, 
unpredictable coalitions, and a continued drop in popularity 
of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) marked 
Croatia's May 15 local elections.  Coalitions among multiple 
parties will be necessary to form governments in the vast 
majority of cities and counties, and some may take weeks to 
negotiate.  Voter turnout was a historically low 40 percent, 
perhaps indicating the Croatian public's political exhaustion 
after two rounds of presidential elections in January and a 
long build-up to these local polls.  No electoral 
irregularities were reported. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Small parties posted the largest gains in Sunday's 
contest, led by the Croatian Pensioners Party (HSU), which 
climbed from about one percent to four percent of seats in 
county assemblies, and the Croatian Party of Rights (HSP), 
which rose from four to eight percent.  The opposition Social 
Democratic Party (SDP) and its partners made significant 
gains in traditional HDZ strongholds and solidified their 
rule in major cities such as Zagreb, Rijeka, and potentially 
Split.  Several independent lists were unexpectedly 
successful and will play decisive roles in such places as 
Split on the coast, Osijek in eastern Slavonia, and Karlovac 
in central Croatia. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The HDZ, Croatia's largest party, lost votes both to 
apathy and anger, as a portion of its traditional voters 
either stayed home or shifted to the HSP and other right wing 
lists to protest HDZ reforms, such as cooperation with the 
Hague Tribunal.  Despite defections, the HDZ will actually 
lose power in only a handful of places.  It will, however, 
grow much more dependent on coalitions - particularly with 
the HSP - to stay in power.  While talk of early 
parliamentary elections continues, a vote of no-confidence 
remains very unlikely before 2006.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
ZAGREB: PERSONALITY POWER OF THE ONCE AND FUTURE MAYOR 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In Zagreb, SDP Deputy Mayor Milan Bandic's populist 
approach to city government won him stronger than expected 
results.  The local press portrayed Bandic's victory with 41 
percent of the vote as the defining event of these elections. 
 Falling just one seat short of an absolute majority in his 
bid to take back the mayor's chair after being forced out in 
2002 by a drunk-driving incident, Bandic needs only one 
coalition partner to form his government. His near-majority 
allows him to accomplish this without resorting to his 
estranged former coalition partner, the Croatian People's 
Party (HNS), whose tough talk against the former mayor (ref 
A) backfired, costing them more than half of their seats on 
the city council.  He will likely find his partner among the 
two independent lists that passed the five percent threshold, 
that of businesswoman Tatjana Holjevac and Croatian-American 
millionaire and former presidential candidate Boris Miksic. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The lists of other popular mayors won reelection by 
large margins, including Ivan Cehok (Croatian Social Liberal 
Party - HSLS) in the northern city of Varazdin with 73 
percent of the vote, Zvonimir Mrsic (SDP) in nearby 
Koprivnica with 72 percent, and Vojko Obersnel (SDP) in the 
port city of Rijeka with 49 percent.  These strong 
performances may fuel those who support the direct election 
of mayors over the current party-list system. 
 
OSIJEK: HDZ HUMILIATION 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Osijek strongman and recent HDZ outcast Branimir 
Glavas was the most dramatic example of personality over 
party in these elections.  Expelled from the HDZ just days 
before the candidacy deadline due to his support of a plan to 
regionalize Croatian local government, Glavas rallied his 
supporters and drew 25 percent of the city vote and 27 
percent of the county vote -- three times as many votes as 
the HDZ in the city and two times more in the county.  Glavas 
will need coalition partners to rule Osijek, but is likely to 
find cooperation in the HSP, which also significantly 
outpolled the HDZ. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: PM Ivo Sanader had been looking for an 
opportunity to rid the party of Glavas and his extremist 
views, but he may have instead created a stronger enemy to 
his reforms.  Glavas's victory also represents a loss for 
liberal parties, which have used broad coalitions to keep the 
mayor's seat from the HDZ for 15 years.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The HDZ's other major losses came from leftist 
 
coalitions in cities the party has ruled since Croatian 
independence -- Sisak, 40 km southeast of Zagreb, and Sinj, a 
Dalmatian icon of Croatian nationalism.  The HDZ will hang on 
to power in the symbolically significant cities of Vukovar 
and Dubrovnik. 
 
SPLIT: THE STRENGTH OF THE INDEPENDENTS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) While Glavas convinced his former-party faithful to 
follow him, other independent list leaders built success from 
scratch.  In Split, a city famous for surprising politics, 
the independent business-focused list of former basketball 
star Zeljko Jerkov took nearly 15 percent of the vote.  With 
ten of 25 city council seats taken by the SDP coalition, six 
by the HDZ, and the remainder scattered across the spectrum, 
Jerkov's four seats will likely be decisive. 
 
¶9. (SBU) A similar situation exists in Karlovac, where the 
SDP and HDZ are in a dead heat.  Both sides are scrambling 
for coalition partners, and the two seats won by independent 
politician Dubravko Delic, along with two seats held by the 
Pensioners Party, will tip the balance. 
 
KNIN: THE ETHNIC FACTOR 
----------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Independent Democratic Serbian Party (SDSS) won 
a plurality in the south-central city of Knin, in part thanks 
to the party's efforts to bus in Serb refugee voters who have 
not yet returned to the area.  The SDSS fell short of an 
outright majority, but may give up claims to the mayor's 
office in exchange for a coalition with the HDZ in line with 
their national coalition.  There has also been press 
speculation that the HDZ will form a coalition with the HSP 
and the extreme-right Croatian Block in order to shut the 
SDSS out of the city government, but Zagreb party leaders may 
discourage this.  In either case, the mayor is likely to be 
the HDZ's 24-year-old Josipa Rimac, locally popular for her 
work as director of the Knin chapter of the Croatian Red 
Cross and potentially one of the youngest mayors in Europe. 
 
¶11. (SBU) An additional factor that may affect the power 
balance in some areas is the constitutional requirement that 
minorities be represented in proportion with their presence 
in the population.  The State Electoral Commission will 
assess whether the number of winning candidates of each 
ethnicity from all parties match this proportion.  If not, 
additional seats will be added to the city or county assembly 
and special elections will be held to fill those seats, 
potentially adding to a party's strength. 
 
HSP: THE BUBBLING RIGHT WING 
---------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The gains the HSP made were expected, but not as 
large as they predicted for themselves.  This far-right party 
struggling to remake itself (ref B) will be a key HDZ partner 
in several counties, which may well result in a few chief 
executive jobs being filled by HSP members.  COMMENT: This 
will represent some of the first opportunities for this party 
to actually govern, a dramatic change from its vociferous 
opposition tradition.  After disappointingly nationalist 
rhetoric during the campaign, it is unlikely the 
international community will accept the party as reformed in 
the near term.  END COMMENT. 
FRANK 
 
 
NNNN