This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

161733Z May 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003342 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL, INR/EUC AND 
EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: VOTERS 
LARGELY INDIFFERENT TO ANTI-AMERICAN ARGUMENTS 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 3208 
 
     ¶B. (B) PARIS 3103 
     ¶C. (C) PARIS 2942 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶D. (D) PARIS 1998 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) Arguments aiming to tap into anti-Americanism among 
the French to win support either for or against the proposed 
constitution have by and large met with indifference from 
ordinary voters.  This has not prevented the TV debates 
featuring major politicians, the print editorials and the 
non-stop TV commentary from being occasionally punctuated by 
calls to "vote 'yes' to build a strong Europe able to stand 
up to the U.S.", or "vote 'no' to save Europe from dominance 
by the U.S. and NATO".  Overall, the U.S. has come up 
dispassionately, as an example of a rival, both economic and 
political, to be countered by a united Europe.  The 
referendum debate has been dominated by voters' focus on 
their straitened economic circumstances.  This has brought to 
the fore arguments about whether ordinary Frenchmen and women 
will be economically secure with the proposed constitution 
for Europe, and has pushed to the margins efforts to exploit 
in the referendum debate hostility towards the U.S.  The U.S. 
(along with Britain) consistently appears in the debate 
depicted as the source of a "liberal" economic model that 
must be held at bay.  END SUMMARY. 
 
U.S. IN THE BACKGROUND OF CENTRIST VOTERS' CONCERNS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
¶2.  (SBU) Contrary to expectations, of the Socialist Party 
(PS) in particular, which planned a campaign that featured 
"Yes, to a strong Europe against the U.S." theme (reftel D), 
French voters have largely shrugged off efforts to sway them 
based on appeals to anti-Americanism.  Francois Rebsamen, the 
PS official in charge of the party's 'yes' campaign, admitted 
as much.  He told Poloff on April 19 that calls to support 
the constitution in order to counter U.S. power have carried 
little weight with voters at large, including the PS's 
center-left electorate.  One result seems to have been a 
recasting of this theme in the PS's latest campaign flyers. 
The "strong Europe" theme now barely mentions the U.S. 
Instead, it focuses on Europe's political weakness and 
highlights the institutional changes in the constitution that 
could give Europe more weight in international affairs. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Pollsters seeking to establish voters' motivation 
do not specifically ask about the U.S., but do track such 
issues as "desire for a political Europe" and "conviction 
that French identity is under threat."  These are important 
issues for voters, but considerations relating to the U.S. 
seem to be in the background, not the foreground, for 
center-left and center-right voters.  These voters' focus is 
on France's continued leadership role in a political Europe 
or on further surrender of French sovereignty to Europe, not 
on how the U.S. might fit into the equation.  Not 
surprisingly, anti-Americanism is a stronger motivator on the 
far right and the far left.  The 'no' argument of both far 
right "France First" sovereignists and far left 
anti-Americans, that the proposed Constitution creates an 
"Atlanticist Europe dominated by the United States," finds 
ground for traction in the resentments and suspicions of 
these "traditionalist" voters of both far right and far left. 
 
OPPOSITION TO U.S. PERSISTS IN POLITICAL CLASS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶4.  (SBU) The low-profile of anti-American themes in the 
referendum debate, however, has not prevented the TV debates 
featuring major politicians, the print editorials and the 
non-stop TV commentary from being occasionally punctuated by 
appeals to anti-Americanism.  Most striking has been the way 
establishment figures, including high-ranking officials, 
have, near inadvertently, let slip evidence of a world view 
in which building a strong Europe is fundamentally about 
countering American power.  Foreign Minister Barnier, for 
example, in a major televised debate on April 25, as he was 
sitting down ending an intervention in favor of adopting the 
constitution, tossed off the remark, "The choice is not 
between France and Europe, as some say; the choice is between 
a European Europe and a Europe under the influence of the 
United States."  COMMENT: The bias this remark reveals is far 
from exclusively Barnier's; it is shared by many of both left 
and right in the French political class, including President 
Chirac.  END COMMENT. 
 
POPULAR FOCUS IS ON THE CONSTITUTION AND THE ECONOMY 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶5.  (SBU) The referendum debate so far has been dominated by 
voters' focus on their straitened economic circumstances 
(reftel B).  The continuing strength of the 'no' vote is in 
large part driven by anger at unemployment, outsourcing, 
diminished purchasing power, and deteriorating public 
services.  The constitution and the elite that favor it are a 
convenient target for this anger.  Among the most effective 
arguments of the 'yes' camp is that a stronger Europe could 
work to improve economic conditions for ordinary Frenchmen 
and women -- help France protect its jobs, industries and 
social model.  One unexpected result of this focus on how the 
French might best cope in an increasingly competitive global 
economy has been the very common catchphrase "like the U.S. 
and China."  This phrase surfaces whenever advocates of the 
constitution argue that only through a strong Europe can 
France hope to protect its trade and economic interests in a 
global economy structured by three great centers of economic 
power. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶6.  (SBU) The U.S. and China are an odd couple for such a 
regularly repeated pairing.  The conventional wisdom among 
the French is that the U.S., China and Europe are somehow a 
trio of equals, soon to achieve some sort of parity in 
determining the global future, and that the U.S. and China 
both pose serious challenges to Europe.  Whether or not the 
proposed constitution enables Europe to meet these economic 
challenges, while retaining a compassionate social model seen 
to be alien to both the U.S. and Chinese systems, is a 
question that is gaining prominence as the referendum debate 
enters its final two weeks.  But this is different than a 
debate about countering U.S. power globally. 
Middle-of-the-road voters' relative indifference to 
anti-American themes in the referendum campaign is partly 
explained by their preoccupation with economic security in a 
global environment.  END COMMENT. 
WOLFF