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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003103 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, INR/EUC AND 
EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: FRANCE'S MAY 29 REFERENDUM ON EU CONSTITUTION: 
"THE QUESTION OF TURKEY" 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 2942 
     ¶B. (B) PARIS 2663 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) "The question of Turkey" as the French refer to it, 
looms large in the background of voter concerns as France's 
electorate prepares for the May 29 national referendum on a 
proposed constitution for the European Union.  Opponents of 
the constitutional treaty suggest that it will make Turkey's 
membership in the EU more likely, leading to a new influx of 
Muslim immigrants seeking work.  France's already large 
Muslim minority, mostly of North African origin, is not well 
integrated into French society.  Among those susceptible to 
nativist and xenophobic fears, anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim 
prejudice runs high, and transfers easily to opposing Europe, 
the constitution and enlargement to include Turkey.  In 
addition, President Chirac's championing of opening accession 
talks with Turkey tempts some who oppose Turkey's membership 
in the EU to "vote against Chirac" in the referendum.  For 
many, the prospect of an EU that includes Turkey also 
confirms their fear that European enlargement is "a runaway 
train."  With Turkey in the club, the "European idea" would 
logically also be open to Russia and many countries around 
the Mediterranean, ensuring that the EU remains a vast 
free-trade zone and does not become a closer, political 
union.  END SUMMARY. 
 
LOOMING IN THE BACKGROUND 
------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) In the early weeks of the referendum campaign 
(which began on March 4 when President Chirac announced the 
May 29 date) the "question of Turkey" was at the forefront of 
French voters' concerns.  Through mid-April most polls showed 
that opposition to Turkey's membership in the EU was the 
leading motivator of those who said that they planned to vote 
'no' on May 29.  Since then, as the debate over the proposed 
constitution has centered, nearly exclusively, on two issues 
-- the constitution's compatibility with the French social 
model (reftel A) and the weakening of France should French 
voters reject the proposed charter -- fears linked to Turkey 
have somewhat receded into the background for most voters. 
So much so that President Chirac, in a fifty-minute 
prime-time television appearance on May 3, did not see fit to 
bring up Turkey at all.  Notwithstanding the current eclipse 
of Turkey as a watershed issue in the referendum debate, 
pollsters are also finding that it continues to loom very 
large in the background of voter concerns as a "crystallizer" 
or "refractor" of differences among the French with regard to 
two key sets of issues: one social, highlighting differences 
over the role of immigration, multiculturalism and religion 
in the future evolution of French society and the other 
European, highlighting differences among the French over what 
the EU should become. 
 
REFRACTING DIFFERENCES OVER SOCIAL ISSUES 
----------------------------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) For many in France, and not only among those 
susceptible to the extremist right's virulent xenophobia and 
nativism, Turkey's prospective membership in the EU conjures 
up fears of unlimited Muslim immigration.  French society has 
largely failed to integrate the estimated five million 
Muslims already in France.  The specter of another wave of 
Muslim immigrants -- of their "taking away jobs and 
undercutting wages," of exacerbated urban tensions, and of 
conflict stemming from the religious fundamentalism of a few 
of these immigrants and the French Republic's rigid 
commitment to secularism -- has been demagogically exploited 
by opponents of the proposed constitution, in particular on 
the far-right.  However, many who support the proposed 
constitution (including France's most popular politician, 
Nicolas Sarkozy, president of Union for a Popular Movement 
(UMP) party) are also against Turkey's accession to the EU. 
In part, this opposition to Turkey stems from recognition of 
the difficulties French society is having adjusting to 
multiculturalism and other factors for social change stemming 
from globalization.  For Sarkozy and other "opponents of 
Turkey," who are not bigots, the effects in France of 
including more than 70 million Turks in the EU is a bridge 
too far for French society's capacity to adapt. 
 
AND OVER DIFFERENT VISIONS FOR EUROPE 
------------------------------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) The focus of the referendum debate on whether or 
not the proposed constitution supports or undermines the 
French social model has masked deep differences in France 
over the right direction for the European construction -- 
what the proposed constitution should lead to.  Different 
positions on "the question of Turkey," reflect different 
visions for Europe.  Many who would have objected to 
enlargement to 25, but had no opportunity to express their 
views due to the EU's "democracy deficit," plan to vote 'no' 
to object both to enlargement to 25 and to prospective 
enlargement to include Turkey.  A Europe that includes Turkey 
may also be open to Russia and to many countries around the 
Mediterranean.  Such an "ever-expanding Europe without a 
border" is also a pre-imminently "liberal" economic 
association, too diverse and unwieldy to muster much 
political clout.  Pollsters believe that a significant 
portion of French supporters of the proposed constitution 
oppose Turkey's inclusion in the EU for precisely this reason 
-- that including Turkey insures that the EU remains no more 
than a vast free-trade zone, and does not become a stronger 
political union.  Defending himself against the charge that 
he is a lukewarm Europeanist, President Chirac in his 
television appearance May 3 called for a "Europe that 
conjoins single market and social harmonization, that does 
not subsume the identity of Europe's peoples and nations and 
in which European authorities do what only they can do better 
than national ones."  President Chirac, the leading proponent 
in France of having the EU open accession talks with Turkey, 
believes that inclusion of Turkey is compatible with this 
vision of a union of nations that share democratic political 
values and a framework for concerted action.  This is one of 
the defining differences between Chirac and his principal 
rival for leadership of the center-right, Sarkozy.  Those who 
stress that civilizational affinities unite Europeans and, in 
some instances, also support a federated Europe (for example, 
Francois Bayrou head of the centrist Union for French 
Democracy (UDF) party), are adamantly hostile to any 
possibility of including Turkey in Europe. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶5.  (SBU) With only three weeks left to go before the May 29 
referendum, is it unlikely that the "question of Turkey," 
despite the demagoguery of right-wing vote-'no' advocates, 
will take center stage in the debate over the proposed 
constitution.  However, because differing positions on 
Turkey's place in the EU reflect differences over future 
challenges to French society and differences over the future 
evolution of the EU, Turkey is likely to be a high-profile 
issue after the referendum -- as the October 3 date for the 
start of accession negotiations approaches and leads to the 
long season of jockeying for favor with the electorate in the 
run-up to the 2007 presidential campaign.  END COMMENT. 
ROSENBLATT