This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

221412Z Apr 05

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002746 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUR 
AND EB 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI
SUBJECT: FRANCE MOLLIFYING PROTESTORS TO LIMIT UNREST 
AFFECT ON REFERENDUM 
 
REF: A. PARIS 2663 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     ¶B. PARIS 1649 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Strikes and social unrest, while common in 
France, have increased in recent months and could well 
intensify as the May 29 referendum on the EU Constitution 
approaches (reftel A).  In order to deflect unpopularity 
while still pursuing necessary changes, politicians have long 
blamed Brussels technocrats and EU regulations for the 
imposition of necessary reforms.  Now, with a constitution 
for the EU up for a vote, the tried-and-true "blame Brussels" 
tactic is backfiring.  Even though the number of protesters 
is quite small, they could have a broader impact.  Social 
unrest and street protests on nightly newscasts across the 
country have an unsettling effect on the public at large, 
causing people to focus on their own economic problems and 
concerns which, pollsters believe, would incline many to vote 
'no' in the upcoming referendum.  As a result, the GOF has 
quietly tried to mollify several protesting groups and will 
likely continue efforts to douse these fires with money as 
May 29 approaches.  The protest groups -- primarily state 
workers and social subsidy recipients -- recognize the 
pressure is on the government to engineer conditions that 
will support a 'yes' victory on May 29, and will be merciless 
about using this to leverage concessions out of the 
government.  Additional protests and events are planned in 
the next five weeks; it remains to be seen if they will 
become extensive and serious enough to affect referendum 
results May 29.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Politicians Trying to Quiet Current Protests... 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶2.  (U) Since the March 10 (reftel B) general strike, a 
number of groups have continued to use the upcoming EU 
referendum as the backdrop for pushing their protest agendas. 
 Government sensitivity about keeping unrest to a minimum has 
helped many win unexpected concessions.  At the end of March, 
5 million civil servants, previously told that there was no 
money in state coffers for additional wage increases, 
received 0.8% above the 1% increase given to them two months 
earlier -- along with a promise to revisit the salary issue 
in the fall.  Stock breeders have also received a 
pre-referendum gift, with the state agreeing to subsidize 
four additional annual vacation days (money to pay others to 
mind the stock).  Farmers, who only threatened to strike, 
were given a six-month extension on subsidies to offset the 
rise in oil prices.  The government similarly set aside 10 
million euros for a gasoline fund to end a strike by 
fishermen, to which one spokesman for the industry responded, 
"We were not heard," and added that this disappointment 
"would be seen in the weeks to come."  A three-week strike by 
emergency room workers ended late April 20 with the promise 
of an additional 15 million euros worth of hospital 
improvements.  Promises to begin salary negotiations on May 
17 and to revisit the subject annually ended an 18-day strike 
by Radio France workers on April 22.  Wine growers, despite a 
government pledge April 18 to double direct aid to struggling 
growers, continue to protest, pointing specifically to 
restrictions imposed by Brussels.  "Europe brings us 
nothing," said one wine grower.  "Worse, it imposes an unfair 
competition on us," he continued, complaining that EU limits 
on wine production are enforced by French controlling bodies, 
while illegal production allegedly continues unchecked in 
Italy and Spain.  Meanwhile, in Marseilles, a strike by 
ferryboat workers -- which has become riot-like at times, 
with cars set ablaze or thrown from ferries into the sea -- 
has completely shut down the ferry company that operates 
between mainland France and the island of Corsica. 
 
------------------------------- 
... While More are in the Works 
------------------------------- 
¶3.  (U) Despite government efforts to quell social unrest 
during the run-up to the May 29 referendum, activists are 
planning a variety of protest actions over the coming weeks. 
May 1 Labor Day marches will give labor leaders a visible 
platform, from which some will make the case for a 'yes' vote 
May 29; but they will also pass in review the Raffarin 
government's social policies, which they are certain to 
depict as abysmal failures.  France's major labor union 
leaders have called for a 'yes' vote on May 29; many rank and 
file members, however, support 'no.'  Parliament will vote 
May 12 on a law designed to make the French postal system 
more cost effective.  Previous plans to close branches and 
trim jobs have sparked protests, and there is concern that 
the parliamentary vote may be co-opted by the 'no' camp to 
fuel anti-EU sentiment.  One flash point of government/labor 
opposition is a dispute over the elimination of a national 
holiday: in response some 15,000 deaths, mostly among the 
elderly, during the heat wave in the summer of 2003, the 
government eliminated May 16, or Whit Monday, from the list 
of national holidays in order to fund an initiative for the 
handicapped and elderly.  This move, too, has become a 
rallying point for the discontented, and the Prime Minister 
has called an April 29 meeting to discuss the issue (septel). 
 Activists have called on workers in all sectors not to 
report for work on May 16 and to join protest marches 
instead.  Additional protests by scientists and researchers 
are also rumored.  Finally, on May 27, two days before the 
referendum, the latest unemployment figures will be released. 
 At least one group, however, has canceled planned protest 
activities.  Turks living in France have called off a 
scheduled march from Strasbourg to Paris to protest alleged 
racist themes in the debate over Turkey's accession to the 
EU, hoping to avoid fueling the very thing they are 
protesting -- anti-Turkey sentiment. 
 
----------------- 
But At What Cost? 
----------------- 
¶4.  (U) In light of recent events, some in France have begun 
to wonder how many other voices will demand their share in 
the next five weeks, while others have already begun 
lamenting the cost.  Center-right daily Le Figaro published 
articles April 21 putting the price tag of silencing 
protesters thus far at 450 million euros and climbing, and 
speculated that more groups will leverage the coming 
referendum to their advantage.  One politician noted that, in 
addition to the cost of organizing and carrying out the May 
29 vote, the government ran the risk of both a 'no' vote and 
the specter of additional, deficit-ballooning new 
expenditures. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
¶5.  (SBU) The apparent willingness of the Raffarin government 
to go to considerable lengths to quiet protesters with 
handouts and concessions seems directly linked to the 
unsettling effect that a wave of unrest could have on voters 
at large in the run-up to the referendum May 29.  In 
addition, the government worries -- though this is a distant 
possibility -- that the protests in the street could be 
co-opted by the political opposition to the proposed 
Constitution.  Groups of left-wing 'no' advocates are regular 
participants in the street marches and demonstrations; 
representatives of the protest groups, however, have been 
careful to distance themselves from the political advocates 
of 'no' in order to keep the focus on their economic demands. 
 End comment. 
WOLFF